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  • Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
    This is really, really good stuff Sultan.
    Thanks m8.

    My cool graphic design, or the numbers? :atthepc

    Think I'm gonna do Musial vs Thome next.
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-21-2014, 10:53 PM.

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    • Musial vs Thome- best five

      Sorry Sir Stanley. Hast thou knew your triumphs. Art thou shall have known thy better.

      LOL is their a shakespearian translator online? Methinks I was making no sense.
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      Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-21-2014, 10:54 PM.

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      • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
        Musial vs Thome- best five

        Sorry Sir Stanley. Hast thou knew your triumphs. Art thou shall have known thy better.

        LOL is their a shakespearian translator online? Methinks I was making no sense.
        In Modern English, Musial was really, really, really good. To see that he crushed Thome like that stopped my world ...

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        • I'm thinking that a Mantle-Mays-Aaron comparison would be very interesting.

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          • So i was thinking that just like you created an expected slugging percentage and relative slugging percentage using road numbers, the same could be done for on-base percentage. If that was done, we could get expected OPS+, and if we have that we can actually adjust a player's WAR by estimating their Rbat based on their expected OPS+.

            If a player had a 150 OPS+ but a 140 expected OPS+, then his Rbat expected would be about 40/50 of what he actually has. I think though that you already calculated road relative OPS+ in earlier work which would accomplish the same thing.

            Why are you using league PO is slugging efficiency? PO includes outs on the bases. I would use league at bats minus league hits. Actually I never asked, how do YOU calculate a players outs? If you including CS? I would find the league outs the exact same way you found the player's outs.

            The most interesting thing for me is to see expected slugging percentage. And also road relative OPS+. We can see what that does to Boggs. He probably would have lost about 17-18 WAR if we use his road numbers to predict his true hitting ability. That alone would drop him from 29th to about 52nd on the all time war for position players. Not to mention that he scores 100 to 150 runs worse on defense in some other metrics.

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            • You also might want to pick a players top 5 now by expected SA, or road relative OPS+.

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              • So for SAeff it should be TB divided by AB - H for the player and the league?

                Same could be done for OBP true. Still multiply by 1.02 I take it.

                Any thoughts on a simple and fair platoon credit method for righties?

                Also, given that it is the only defensive position that directly impacts offensive production....shouldnt catchers receive a similar but smaller boost too?
                Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-23-2014, 12:19 PM.

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                • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                  So for SAeff it should be TB divided by AB - H for the player and the league?

                  Same could be done for OBP true. Still multiply by 1.02 I take it.

                  Any thoughts on a simple and fair platoon credit method for righties?

                  Also, given that it is the only defensive position that directly impacts offensive production....shouldnt catchers receive a similar but smaller boost too?
                  Yea, on base percentage is very very close to 1.02 as well.

                  The problem with lefties and righties is that righties hit righties much better than lefties hit lefties, as a group. There have been several avenues like looking at how lefties and righties hit overall and just comparing lefties to lefties and righties to righties, but each method creates complications, like the fact that righties would get compared to middle infielders and catchers more, and lefties would be compared to first basemen, DHs and outfielders.

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                  • This is good. By doing SAeff the easy and obvious way, which somehow escaped me, we can get home/road SAeff. Just looked at Piazza and his split is .730/.842. Seems huge but need to do some others to get perspective. Btw, any idea what the expected home production would be for SAeff?

                    Piazza is looking better and better. Then he has platoon and catcher considerations. He will be moving up my hitters list big time. In fact, at this point its all blown up after you know who.

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                    • Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                      This is good. By doing SAeff the easy and obvious way, which somehow escaped me, we can get home/road SAeff. Just looked at Piazza and his split is .730/.842. Seems huge but need to do some others to get perspective. Btw, any idea what the expected home production would be for SAeff?

                      Piazza is looking better and better. Then he has platoon and catcher considerations. He will be moving up my hitters list big time. In fact, at this point its all blown up after you know who.
                      I think that if you have slugging efficiency on the road and want to predict the OVERALL, you would multiply by about 1.04 and just for home 1.08.

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                      • Nice thanks.

                        Okay we saw Piazza's .842 career road SAeff.

                        Here is Foxx's split.

                        1.011
                        .809

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                        • You'll have to use relative SAeff to set the run environments though.

                          The best comparison of SAeff would be to take a) road slugging efficiency b) multiply by 1.04 c) divide by the league slugging efficiency

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                          • I know. At work on my smarty phone. I need to re-do the leagues SAeff data base so couldnt do that step.

                            By the way...

                            Ruth

                            Home - 1.068
                            Road -- 1.029
                            Expected - 1.070

                            Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-23-2014, 03:35 PM.

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                            • Just thought these two might make a good matchup. Turns out the results couldn't be more even.

                              I thought using 300 PA for a min is fitting. If that's too high or two low, lemme know Brett. Reason I mention that, is Mantle's 1963, his fourth highest SA season, he had 213 PA and I left it out. Didn't look until just now, but his home/road SA split was .681/.580 that year.

                              Anyway...............

                              EddieMickeyBest5.jpg

                              And here's a couple bombers.

                              BambinoIronHorseBest5.jpg
                              Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-23-2014, 07:09 PM.

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                              • Well I guess I have to put Mathews back into my top 25, and Frank Robinson loses some. And I don't know how to move Gehrig up, but I pretty much have to. This may turn into a request thread similar to Matt's old PCA thread. I'd really like to see how much Yaz falls, and Ott and Brett. I think Brett will lose a little with road based numbers, Ott a little more and Yaz quite a bit, but maybe less than you think.
                                Last edited by brett; 05-23-2014, 07:24 PM.

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