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Progressing Toward Better Stats Thread

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  • Progressing Toward Better Stats Thread

    This chart shows Road Relative OPS+ or rrOPS+ which essentially puts a players RAW OPS+ into better perspective.

    It gives a more accurate depiction of a player's true ability, by giving him his home park as a road park...so his rrOPS+ is him playing in all parks equally.

    The method is simple.

    Players road SA divided by his leagues road SA. Same thing with OBP. These two relative numbers are added, subtracted by 1, and then multiplied by the league OPS+. This removes pitchers from the league.

    In order to give the player his home park as a road park, the next step is (ROAD REL OPS+ * 3) + (RAW OPS+) / 4 (normalized to eight team league)

    Further perspective is given through rrOPS++


    Code:
                                    raw OPS+ in ( )   weighted by 10k PA
    PLAYER          rrOPS+        rrOPS++
    Code:
    RUTH             209.5 (206)       216.3
    TWILLIAMS        191.2 (190)       189.2
    GEHRIG           183.5 (179)       180.6
    BaBONDS          177.4 (182)       197.5
    COBB ('08-'28)   173.0 (170)       186.8
    JJACKSON         173.0 (170)       141.5
    HORNSBY          172.1 (175)       168.3
    MANTLE           166.9 (172)       166.2
    JDiMAGGIO        164.2 (155)       149.2
    PUJOLS           161.6 (162)       156.9
    McGWIRE          160.1 (163)       146.0
    MRAMIREZ         159.3 (154)       157.9
    MUSIAL           158.6 (159)       174.5
    FOXX             156.1 (163)       154.2
    MAYS             155.9 (156)       169.8
    AARON            154.5 (155)       176.1
    DALLEN           154.1 (156)       138.8
    CKELLER          152.9 (152)       124.3
    MCABRERA         152.8 (154)       141.2
    MIZE             152.8 (158)       139.6
    OTT              152.6 (155)       159.6
    SPEAKER          150.9 (158)       161.0
    FTHOMAS          149.7 (156)       150.0
    FROBINSON        149.1 (154)       157.6
    HEILMANN         149.0 (148)       143.9
    PIAZZA           148.9 (142)       138.0
    EMARTINEZ        148.7 (147)       142.2
    EMATHEWS         148.2 (143)       148.6
    THOME            147.4 (147)       148.7
    SCHMIDT          147.3 (147)       147.5
    McCOVEY          145.8 (147)       144.3
    BAGWELL          144.8 (149)       142.2
    BTERRY           144.7 (136)       131.7
    GREENBERG        144.4 (158)       127.0
    KILLEBREW        144.1 (143)       143.3
    STARGELL         144.0 (147)       139.7
    Post #69 has the original work bb-fever was screwing up the coding lineup
    Attached Files
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 07-21-2018, 08:19 AM.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  • #2
    So the first question I will ask for stats people is how is Rbat calculated?
    Is it based on some kind of linear weights of events?
    I know that it is supposed to be batting runs above average.

    It looks like from my previous investigations that within a given season a run is standardized to a standard ballpark, but this is not true from season to season. So in other words, for a player to get an Rbat in Coors he actually has to do more than he would have to do to get an Rbat in a different home park. His Rbat are adjusted down to a standard park in that year. However, a player who produces an Rbat in 1936 AL does not get his Rbat standardized to the level of an average season, just an average park in 1936.

    This would mean that Rbat should eventually be adjusted for the run environment of the league (which happens when it is changed into WAR, but WAR does not just include batting value).

    Another thing. If we know the league runs per game, say 4.5, then we know that a full time player should be producing about 81 runs in a season. 4.5/9 x 162.

    So lets take the example of Babe Ruth 1921:
    Ruth 1921 produced 116 Rbat (ABOVE AVERAGE) in 693 PAs (already standardized to park)

    The league as a whole had 6296 runs in 48698 PAs. So an average guy would have netted 89.6 runs in 693 PAs.

    Taking (116 + 89.6)/89.6 we get 2.29, basically and Rbat version of OPS+ (Ruth 1921: Rbat+=229) without all of the errors that OPS+ gets at high levels.

    This DOES neutralize the league run environment and give you an OPS+ like score based on Rbat, which is a) much more inherently meaningful than the way OPS+ is arrived at and 2) more accurate as it accounts for more things like the specific value of events.

    Sultan, this does interest me, basically working on Rbat+ because it saves us having to do anything with the run environment from season to season, but we do have to add up league runs per plate appearance.

    There are two minor flaws and they occur with any stat. One is that a player who makes fewer outs will actually get more PAs than average because he is saving himself some PAs so if you replace a Ruth 1921 with 693 PAS, the average guy probably loses 15-20 PAs because his higher out total will cost him some PAs. This could also be fixed but takes about twice as long as the work to get Rbat+ as I presented it above.

    The second issue or problem is whether to use runs, or earned runs, but I don't think Rbat cares how a player nets a run, whether it is form an error or not. Let's ignore this one for now.

    Comment


    • #3
      I realized that I can compare the players' outs to the league rate of outs to figure out how many extra plate appearances a player like Ruth "earned for himself". Rbat already has a cost value of making outs. What I want to account for is that the low out producer is getting some of his extra plate appearances because he is saving outs.

      So let's work through the math for Babe Ruth 1921, which I chose simply because it is the highest Rbat total in history at 116.

      Rbat: 116 (above average)
      PAs: 693
      Batting outs: 336 (I will not look at Sacs or GIDPs at this point as they may be situational and also were not always official or kept stats. So I just take AB-H)

      League runs: 6296
      League PAs: 48698
      League outs: 30280

      The next part I am going to have to figure out how to put in into an algebraic equation later, but using plugging and checking I got that Ruth's 693 PAs were 103% higher because he made few outs. The average player would have gotten just 675.

      (Basically and to within about 1 PA, The average player got 1.61 PAs per out. Multiplying by 336 outs that Ruth made, they would have gotten 540 PAs in the same number of outs that he got 693, however, only 1/9 of his 153 extra PAs would have gone to himself, so an average player in Ruth's spot would have only gotten 674-675 PAs while he got 693).

      In 675 PAs the average player produced 87.3 Rbat.

      Ruth had 116.

      (116+87.3)/87.3= 2.33, or 233%, strikingly similar to his OPS+ of 238

      Comment


      • #4
        [
        Originally posted by brett View Post
        I realized that I can compare the players' outs to the league rate of outs to figure out how many extra plate appearances a player like Ruth "earned for himself". Rbat already has a cost value of making outs. What I want to account for is that the low out producer is getting some of his extra plate appearances because he is saving outs.

        So let's work through the math for Babe Ruth 1921, which I chose simply because it is the highest Rbat total in history at 116.

        Rbat: 116 (above average)
        PAs: 693
        Batting outs: 336 (I will not look at Sacs or GIDPs at this point as they may be situational and also were not always official or kept stats. So I just take AB-H)

        League runs: 6296
        League PAs: 48698
        League outs: 30280

        The next part I am going to have to figure out how to put in into an algebraic equation later, but using plugging and checking I got that Ruth's 693 PAs were 103% higher because he made few outs. The average player would have gotten just 675.

        (Basically and to within about 1 PA, The average player got 1.61 PAs per out. Multiplying by 336 outs that Ruth made, they would have gotten 540 PAs in the same number of outs that he got 693, however, only 1/9 of his 153 extra PAs would have gone to himself, so an average player in Ruth's spot would have only gotten 674-675 PAs while he got 693).

        In 675 PAs the average player produced 87.3 Rbat.

        Ruth had 116.

        (116+87.3)/87.3= 2.33, or 233%, strikingly similar to his OPS+ of 238
        good stuff. We could be getting somewhere. Hopefully some others will chime in.

        on a side note...a few questions

        Guess I just don't understand what you're doing with the walk thing. Are you punishing guys who walk more? To take two extreme examples Bonds and Ichiro, Bonds is creating more appearances for himself and his teammates. That's a good thing.

        Why wouldn't you eliminatethe error issue all together and use only earned runs?

        How are you going to adjust for the DH issue?

        After the final numbers, would it be necessary to make some kind of standard deviation adjustments for League quality or is that overkill?
        Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 02-12-2014, 11:20 AM.
        "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

        ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

        Comment


        • #5
          As for earned runs, Rbat actually estimates a players runs created whether they are earned or unearned so I believe it is more accurate.

          As for the walk thing, its minor. Origially I was looking at how many runs Ruth produced above average (116) and what the average player did in the same number of plate appearances (693 which would be 89 runs) but I realized that Ruth's low outs meant that he GOT 693 PAS, but an average hitter would only have gotten about 675, so I'm actually giving Ruth more credit for making fewer outs. Ruth produced over 693 PAs but an average guy should only count his rate of production through 675 because Ruth effectively created 18 more plate appearances for himself.

          Comment


          • #6
            What does it show for DiMaggio, Mays, and Cobb? You're using overall career numbers, not just single seasons, correct?

            I'll get any info you need, just need to know what.

            ---------------

            Just to kick this off, I will recap some back and forth with Brett. My initial thought was to incorporate runs created with PA and outs made, to get some sort of RC EFFICIENCY stat.

            Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948
            I know what these numbers tell us individually, but is there any way to combine them to tell us more? A higher number is better on top and lower number is better on bottom. Does the difference between them mean anything?

            A couple random guys....

            Mantle

            PA/OUTS - 1.679
            OUTS/RC - 2.894

            Mays

            PA/OUTS - 1.551
            OUTS/RC - 3.402
            Originally posted by Brett
            RC is a pretty good stat for getting a player's raw net production. Outs and PA both have problems being on the bottom. If we look at RC per out, well, a player who makes one less out is not actually getting to use that out himself to produce more, he's just saving it for somebody else on his team, or an average guy if you will. If we use PA we have the problem that two guys can have say 2 RC in 4 PAs, but if one of them is making 2 outs, and one is making 3 outs, the guy making 3 is costing his team one extra chance to produce.

            So here's what I would do, If you like RC, take RC, subtract outs times some value lost for the out, and divide the total by PA.

            An out should simply cost however many runs are scored in the league divided by the total number of outs produced by the league. Let's say that the league produces 4.0 runs per game, well, take 4.0/27 and we see that the cost of an out is about -0.148 runs.

            So take a players RC minus (outs x 0.148) all divided by plate appearances. What is interesting with this approach is that an average player should end up with a total of ZERO RC - runs cost per PA.

            Now technically I think that the average team gets 26.25 outs per game, (half the time both teams get 27, and half the time one gets 24) so we should divide the runs per game by 25.25, but its still neat that the average player would come out to zero. What For good players you basically would end up with how many net runs they gain above average per plate appearance for their team.
            Before I received this response, I jumped the gun and began looking at some players, their difference between those two numbers.

            Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948
            So I looked up Mays year by year league R/G


            4.5
            4.2
            4.6
            4.5
            4.2
            4.4
            4.4
            4.4
            4.2
            4.5
            4.5
            3.8
            4.0
            4.0
            4.1
            3.8
            3.4
            4.0
            4.5
            3.9
            3.9
            4.1

            4.17

            Anyway, I looked up some player just using the raw difference from PA/OUT and OUT/RC....here are the results

            [ATTACH]135691[/ATTACH]
            Originally posted by Brett
            It's 26.25, so the last step is to take 4.17/26.25 which would be 0.159. That's how many runs were produced per out.

            So you take May's runs created. Then take 0.159 x his outs. Subtract that from RC and divide the total by his PAs.

            If you do it, send me his RC and PAs and outs and I'll tell you his score.
            Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948
            OH SNAP!!!

            I got it right?

            Problem is, it took awhile to get his avg league R/G, and I have to do that for every player!
            Originally posted by Brett
            I was thinking about that. There are two things. One is that RC is not really adjusted to the run environment anyway, so you are going to get only slight issues if you just use a standard of say 0.15 runs per out for everyone. There may be another way to get the same result though. Do you know what formula is used to get the version of RC that you are using?

            The simplest way to get something like this would be to go to BBRef, and go to player value. Then take Rbat divided by plate appearances. Rbat is more accurate than RC and you don't have to calculate any league averages. Mays comes out to 0.068 for example and Ruth to 0.126. That is batting runs above average per plate appearance. From there you could multiply it by say 650 to see what they did per season. Ruth would be 81.6 batting runs above average per 650 PAs while Mays would be 44.2 batting runs above average. Personally I would rather see players listed by that value if I were going to invest the time because Rbat uses the most accurate version of runs created, and already adjusts them to the run environment. Ted Williams is 70.9, Gehrig is 65.2 (all per 650 PAs).

            In fact, Rbat alone is set "above average" and career Rbat is a great way to rate hitters. Here are a few players career Rbat totals:

            Ruth: 1334
            Bonds: 1127
            Williams: 1068
            Cobb: 995
            Gehrig: 969
            Musial: 884
            Aaron: 870
            Hornsby: 860
            Mays: 805
            Mantle: 802
            Foxx: 758

            One nice thing about this is that a player can not rack up a lot just by hanging around. If they put up average level of hitting they don't gain anything.
            Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948
            That sounds like the way to go then. Would save a lot of time. I would still like to include out made because I think that shows efficiency as it relates to their production.
            Originally posted by Brett
            Rbat is already subtracting the cost of outs from the runs created.
            ...........Actually while this gives runs above average, a run is worth more in a 4 rpg setting than a 5 rpg setting, so technically the runs should be weighted by the run environment to figure out how truly valuable it was. There is a way to do it, but its complicated..
            Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948
            It seems this Rbat takes into account a lot of things. So many things that it's hard to believe, actually. But I trust your word. It does beg the question though.....

            How come nobody ever references it in discussions. It's always OPS+ and WAR.

            Scroll to the bottom of this page. http://www.baseball-reference.com/ab...ned_wraa.shtml It has R/OUT and R/PA for every league, every year.
            Originally posted by Brett
            Maybe we should start a thread on stats about Rbat. It DOES account for runs based on the run environment, for example a single is worth appoximately a certain number of runs in a given environment. It also does ballpark adjustments which you may or may not like. What I am saying is that it does not account for the fact that 10 runs is worth more wins in a league that averages 4 runs per game than one that averages 5 runs per game.
            Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948
            I am committed to coming up with a better, or I guess, more accumulative stat than OPS+ or WAR. Of course no stat is perfect, but if this Rbat on its own, does what you say it does, it's the best place to start imo.
            So that's where we are. I don't have much to offer in the calculations of advanced stuff but will put in the time to help accumulate data.

            Any thoughts on this Rbat stat? Why is never mentioned? It already incorporates runs created and outs made in terms of efficiency, along with ballpark factors and some type of run scoring environment. Seems it tells quite a bit.

            avg number of dongs hit by a mlb team


            red = 161 - 200
            blue = 121 - 160
            green = 81 - 120
            orange = 41 - 80
            black = 1 - 40


            year - hr

            2013 - 155
            2012 - 164
            2011 - 152

            2010 - 154----------------------------
            2009 - 168
            2008 - 163
            2007 - 165
            2006 - 179
            2005 – 167........170.3 avg
            2004 – 182
            2003 – 174
            2002 – 169
            2001 – 182----------------------------

            2000 – 190----------------------------
            1999 – 184
            1998 – 169
            1997 – 166
            1996 – 177
            1995 – 164........160.9 avg
            1994 – 168
            1993 – 144
            1992 – 117
            1991 – 130----------------------------

            1990 – 128----------------------------
            1989 – 119
            1988 – 122
            1987 – 171
            1986 – 147
            1985 – 139........127.7 avg
            1984 – 125
            1983 – 127
            1982 – 130
            1981 – 69----------------------------

            1980 – 118----------------------------
            1979 – 132
            1978 – 114
            1977 – 140
            1976 – 93
            1975 – 112........117.3 avg
            1974 – 110
            1973 – 129
            1972 – 106
            1971 – 119----------------------------

            1970 – 143----------------------------
            1969 – 130
            1968 – 100
            1967 – 115
            1966 – 137
            1965 – 134........133.3 avg
            1964 – 138
            1963 – 135
            1962 – 150
            1961 – 151----------------------------

            1960 – 133----------------------------
            1959 – 140
            1958 – 140
            1957 – 138
            1956 – 143
            1955 – 139........130.6 avg
            1954 – 121
            1953 – 130
            1952 – 106
            1951 – 116----------------------------

            1950 – 130----------------------------
            1949 – 107
            1948 – 97
            1947 – 98
            1946 – 76
            1945 – 63........71.2 avg
            1944 – 65
            1943 – 56
            1942 – 67
            1941 – 83----------------------------

            1940 – 98----------------------------
            1939 – 90
            1938 – 92
            1937 – 89
            1936 – 85
            1935 – 83........84.0 avg
            1934 – 84
            1933 – 67
            1932 – 85
            1931 – 67----------------------------

            1930 – 98----------------------------
            1929 – 84
            1928 – 68
            1927 – 58
            1926 – 54
            1925 – 73........67.6 avg
            1924 – 56
            1923 – 61
            1922 – 66
            1921 – 58----------------------------

            1920 – 39----------------------------
            1919 – 28
            1918 – 15
            1917 – 21
            1916 – 24
            1915 – 24........26.6 avg
            1914 – 26
            1913 – 29
            1912 – 28
            1911 – 32----------------------------

            1910 – 22----------------------------
            1909 – 16
            1908 – 17
            1907 – 15
            1906 – 16
            1905 – 21........19.9 avg
            1904 – 21
            1903 – 21
            1902 – 22
            1901 – 28----------------------------
            Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 01-09-2015, 10:53 PM.
            "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

            ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

            Comment


            • #7
              Gentlemen… please…

              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_average

              http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Total_Average
              Your Second Base Coach
              Garvey, Lopes, Russell, and Cey started 833 times and the Dodgers went 498-335, for a .598 winning percentage. That’s equal to a team going 97-65 over a season. On those occasions when at least one of them missed his start, the Dodgers were 306-267-1, which is a .534 clip. That works out to a team going 87-75. So having all four of them added 10 wins to the Dodgers per year.
              http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5hCIvMule0

              Comment


              • #8
                Total average has the precise problem of dividing by player outs. Players don't get outs, and they don't really get plate appearances either. They get plate appearances plus or minus extra PAs created or lost by their rate of making outs.

                If Rbat (for war) is really a good weighted measure of run production above average, then Rbat divided by the league average run production for the same number of plate appearances plus or minus those created or lost for oneself would basically be an OPS+ like stat but that is actually meaningful and accurate throughout the entire range of player productivity. But because of some of the issues with coming up with the career-long run environment and league OB% for a player, maybe it would be better to just convert Rbat into batting wins above average. This would account for run environement and general park effects and weigh everything right.

                Babe Ruth has 1334 Rbat (above average)
                We can see that war shows that 1717 RAR converts to 163.2 WAR which means that 10.52 runs equals one win.
                So 1334/10.52= 126.8 career games won above average by hitting for Ruth.

                That is a darn good estimate of his career greatness as a hitter, and pretty simple to come up with. While there are a few flaws with the next step, on the order of tenths of wins, that also can be shown as a rate, 8.21 batting wins per 162 games.
                Ruth: +126.8/8.21
                Bonds: +111.9/6.07
                Williams: +106.0/7.49
                Cobb: +105.4/5.63
                Gehrig: +89.7/6.72
                Hornsby: +86.3/6.19
                Pujols: +65.3/5.40


                Also assuming 4.5 batting wins per full time player per 162 (which may be a little high because baserunning is not net zero) we would also come up with OPS+ like scores of the following:

                Ruth: 282
                Williams: 266
                Bonds: 235
                Cobb: 225
                Gehrig: 249
                Hornsby: 238
                Pujols: 220

                Which tend to support that OPS+ fails to stay proportional at very high levels, and so may underrate the best hitters. Remember though that this includes pitchers in the league totals. Still all of these guys would be over 200 relative rate of production even with pitchers taken out of the equation.

                Comment


                • #9
                  =======================

                  DeanAvatar.gif
                  Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 01-01-2015, 01:24 PM.
                  "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                  ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Ok, Brett or anyone else with ideas....

                    I know we have slugging average. Instead of using just total bases/AB, I thought maybe looking at TB/OUTS would show something.

                    Here are the top 20, sorted by actual slugging average first, and then sorted by this new number, perhaps Slugging Efficiency.

                    Ruth --------1.006
                    Williams ----.923
                    Gehrig -----.922
                    Foxx -------.869
                    Bonds ------.817
                    Greenberg -.851
                    Pujols ------.815
                    McGwire ---.758
                    MRamirez --.799
                    DiMaggio ---.829
                    Hornsby ----.852
                    MCabrera ---.782
                    LWalker ----.773
                    Belle -------.742
                    Mize -------.795
                    Braun ------.774
                    JGonzalez -.749
                    Musial -----.796
                    ARodriguez .749
                    WMays ----.752

                    RED (moved up)
                    BLUE (moved down)
                    BLACK (stayed same)

                    Ruth --------1.006
                    Williams ----.923
                    Gehrig -----.922
                    Foxx -------.869
                    Hornsby ---.852
                    Greenberg -.851
                    DiMaggio ---.829
                    Bonds ------.817
                    Pujols ------.815
                    MRamirez --.799
                    Musial ------.796
                    Mize -------.795
                    MCabrera --.782
                    Braun ------.774
                    LWalker ----.773
                    McGwire ---.758
                    WMays -----.752
                    JGonzalez -.7497
                    ARodriguez .7494
                    Belle -------.742



                    Obviously it would be nice to have home/road OUTS MADE numbers, but I don't see them on bb-ref. That would dramatically impact the list.

                    So my questions are these....

                    1. Would adding (SB - CS) to total bases be a fair thing? Should that be counted as a total base? I know certain eras ran more than others, and running isn't hitting, but just thought I'd ask.

                    2. Whether we do #1 or not, is there any way to use the league average SA with the TB/OUTS number, to put era into better perspective?

                    Thanks in advance!

                    #21-#25 in traditional SA order, just for kicks

                    Mantle -----.764
                    FThomas --.745
                    Aaron -----.750
                    Thome ----.734
                    Vladdy ----.751
                    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-11-2014, 07:20 PM.
                    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I'm not certain that this fits the ends intended; but, for me, if we are going to bring an evaluation of outs clearly into the picture of base-runs net production, we should give special attention to what I call negative outs ... those outs, which, of their very nature, are particularly non-productive.

                      I have looked at the top 30 or so run producers and determined the larger scope of total negative outs as relative percentage of all outs per player. I have also determined specific negative values for each K and DP, subtracting thier negative values from player RC as presented in B-R, Advanced Batting.

                      If this data might be useful, I'll post it. Otherwise, I'll continue to listen.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by leewileyfan View Post
                        I'm not certain that this fits the ends intended; but, for me, if we are going to bring an evaluation of outs clearly into the picture of base-runs net production, we should give special attention to what I call negative outs ... those outs, which, of their very nature, are particularly non-productive.

                        I have looked at the top 30 or so run producers and determined the larger scope of total negative outs as relative percentage of all outs per player. I have also determined specific negative values for each K and DP, subtracting thier negative values from player RC as presented in B-R, Advanced Batting.

                        If this data might be useful, I'll post it. Otherwise, I'll continue to listen.
                        That is interesting. Hadn't thought of it.

                        Not sure you can paint every K or DP with the same negative brush.

                        If the hitter goes deep in the count, fouls of a number of borderline pitches, and eventually K's, he's made the pitcher work, higher pitch count. He can also better communicate with he teammates about the pitcher's stuff that day.

                        Double play..the end result is obviously negative, but on the surface, the batter put the ball in play. That's step #1 of getting a hit.

                        Let's say the batter hits a hard liner to the third baseman, who jumps up to his left, snares it, and without hesitation, fires to first to double up the runner. That runner, instead of "freezing on a line drive in front of you", took a step toward second base after his secondary, and by that time it was too late. Hitter roped it, runner messes up.

                        To that point, the majority of doubles plays, are made on balls that are solidly hit. If not hit solid (except in extreme cases where the runner is slow as molasses) the hitter usually beats the throw to first.

                        The bottom line is not all K and DP are created equal. I'm confident you're already aware of this, and we obviously lack the data necessary to account for it. So the end result is all that can matter.

                        Would still be interested in seeing your data. How big of a DP split was there for righties vs lefties? Any correlation with higher SB in an era translating to fewer DP?

                        Also, seems like more errors or bobbled balls turning a would-be DP into a simple FC had to happen back in the day.
                        "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                        ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Brett, your inbox is full.

                          Thanks for the explanation. Will have to edit all the players now...Tejada's pathetic career bWAA went from 9.58 to a slightly less pathetic 9.84. Every point matters!

                          Anyway, any thoughts on Slugging Efficiency Brett?

                          Edit: Email received from bb-ref

                          Hi Randy,

                          The change we made is that we now carry two digits in the database, so we round the yearly numbers, but add the more exact #'s for career totals.

                          For example:
                          Year In DB on page
                          2001 4.34 4.3
                          2002 2.44 2.4
                          total 6.78 6.8 (but merely adding would give you 6.7 here)

                          Best,

                          Mike
                          Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-11-2014, 05:43 PM.
                          "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                          ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                            Brett, your inbox is full.

                            Thanks for the explanation. Will have to edit all the players now...Tejada's pathetic career bWAA went from 9.58 to a slightly less pathetic 9.84. Every point matters!

                            Anyway, any thoughts on Slugging Efficiency Brett?

                            Edit: Email received from bb-ref

                            Hi Randy,

                            The change we made is that we now carry two digits in the database, so we round the yearly numbers, but add the more exact #'s for career totals.

                            For example:
                            Year In DB on page
                            2001 4.34 4.3
                            2002 2.44 2.4
                            total 6.78 6.8 (but merely adding would give you 6.7 here)

                            Best,

                            Mike

                            Yea that's the explanation I expected.

                            I was thinking that slugging efficiency (TB/out) was nice, but you could also do TB per 27 outs.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by brett View Post
                              Yea that's the explanation I expected.

                              I was thinking that slugging efficiency (TB/out) was nice, but you could also do TB per 27 outs.
                              Yeah, you called it.

                              Not sure about per 27. I remember awhile back having a RC/27 discussion and it was said to be funky because players don't get 27 outs. Seems TB/27 would show something though.

                              A couple questions.

                              How do I put it into league context, using league SA? Multiply by league SA by 100 and divide that by 100? Or not lol.

                              Griffey has a .712 SAeff and over his career, his leagues slugged .424 (.288 difference).

                              Cobb has a .755 SAeff (3 points higher than Mays btw) and over his career, his leagues slugged .364 (.391 difference).

                              Ideally, we would be able to get the leagues SAeff but don't think that's possible. Anyway, so I'm not sure what to do now with these numbers. If we multiply Griffey's .288 difference by 100 he's at 28.8. Maybe that's enough? SAeff of 28.8+?

                              We could also do SAeff/650 PA over a career. Except wouldn't we use AB and probably 550 instead? If we divide that 28.8 by Griffey's career AB total, and multiply by 550, we get 1.61.

                              For Cobb, we have 39.1 divided by his 11,434 AB, for a 1.88 total.

                              Hmmm...doesn't seem like that difference is all that much compared to earlier seen numbers. Must be because Cobb had 1633 more AB? How do we account for THAT? Beside doing best five and best ten perhaps?

                              Here's best five.

                              Griffey -

                              Top five TB seasons total 1955. He made 2205 outs in those seasons for an .886 SAeff.

                              League SA in those seasons.

                              97 - .425
                              98 - .431
                              93 - .410
                              99 - .444
                              96 - .443
                              -----------
                              -----.430

                              .456 difference x 100 = 45.6 / 2947 AB in those seasons x 550 = 8.51 SAeff

                              Cobb

                              Top five TB seasons total 1624. He made 1797 outs in those seasons for an .904 SAeff.

                              League SA in those seasons

                              11 - .378
                              17 - .330
                              12 - .354
                              21 - .419
                              22 - .406
                              ------------
                              -----.377

                              .527 difference x 100 = 52.7 / 2765 AB in those seasons x 550 = 10.48 SAeff

                              Let's do Ballgame

                              .923 career SAeff
                              .409 league SA

                              .514 difference. 51.4 / 7706 AB x 550 = 3.67

                              His top five will be off the charts obviously.

                              1728 TB and 1774 OUTS = .974 SAeff

                              .403 league SA = .571 difference

                              57.1 / 2623 AB x 550 = 11.97
                              Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-12-2014, 09:23 AM.
                              "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                              ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                              Comment

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