Progressing Toward Better Stats Thread

[Sultan_1895-1948]

This chart shows Road Relative OPS+ or rrOPS+ which essentially puts a players RAW OPS+ into better perspective.

It gives a more accurate depiction of a player's true ability, by giving him his home park as a road park...so his rrOPS+ is him playing in all parks equally.

The method is simple.

Players road SA divided by his leagues road SA. Same thing with OBP. These two relative numbers are added, subtracted by 1, and then multiplied by the league OPS+. This removes pitchers from the league.

In order to give the player his home park as a road park, the next step is (ROAD REL OPS+ * 3) + (RAW OPS+) / 4 (normalized to eight team league)

Further perspective is given through rrOPS++

                             raw OPS+ in ( )   weighted by 10k PA
PLAYER          rrOPS+        rrOPS++

RUTH             209.5 (206)       216.3
TWILLIAMS        191.2 (190)       189.2
GEHRIG           183.5 (179)       180.6
BaBONDS          177.4 (182)       197.5
COBB ('08-'28)   173.0 (170)       186.8
JJACKSON         173.0 (170)       141.5
HORNSBY          172.1 (175)       168.3
MANTLE           166.9 (172)       166.2
JDiMAGGIO        164.2 (155)       149.2
PUJOLS           161.6 (162)       156.9
McGWIRE          160.1 (163)       146.0
MRAMIREZ         159.3 (154)       157.9
MUSIAL           158.6 (159)       174.5
FOXX             156.1 (163)       154.2
MAYS             155.9 (156)       169.8
AARON            154.5 (155)       176.1
DALLEN           154.1 (156)       138.8
CKELLER          152.9 (152)       124.3
MCABRERA         152.8 (154)       141.2
MIZE             152.8 (158)       139.6
OTT              152.6 (155)       159.6
SPEAKER          150.9 (158)       161.0
FTHOMAS          149.7 (156)       150.0
FROBINSON        149.1 (154)       157.6
HEILMANN         149.0 (148)       143.9
PIAZZA           148.9 (142)       138.0
EMARTINEZ        148.7 (147)       142.2
EMATHEWS         148.2 (143)       148.6
THOME            147.4 (147)       148.7
SCHMIDT          147.3 (147)       147.5
McCOVEY          145.8 (147)       144.3
BAGWELL          144.8 (149)       142.2
BTERRY           144.7 (136)       131.7
GREENBERG        144.4 (158)       127.0
KILLEBREW        144.1 (143)       143.3
STARGELL         144.0 (147)       139.7
ABELLE   143.4 (144)    128.9
BHERMAN  143.4 (141)    127.0
RJACKSON  142.9 (139)   148.9
ARODRIGUEZ   141.8 (140)  151.0
MCGRIFF   141.8 (134)   142.5
KINER
VGUERRERO
HWILSON
SNIDER
SHEFFIELD
ECOLLINS
CRAVATH
FHOWARD
MAUER
CJONES
VAUGHAN
CASH
KMITCHELL
TENACE
BGILES
BERGER
COLAVITO
JGONZALEZ
JROBINSON
BJOHNSON
LWALKER
GOSLIN
KALINE
PALMEIRO
WINFIELD
CAREW
BRETT
CANSECO
EDMONDS
ASIMMONS
PWANER
BNICHOLSON
SISLER
BoBONDS
COCHRANE
KRUK
STRAWBERRY
KWILLIAMS
GRIFFEY JR
KHERNANDEZ
RHENDERSON
GWYNN
EMURRAY
BiWILLIAMS
MEDWICK
GEHRINGER
MORGAN
HELTON
MVAUGHN
VEACH
GORDON
DwEVANS
DICKEY
CLEMENTE
SOSA
BENCH
STAUB
KLEIN
KGIBSON
GRICH
ABREU
YASTRZEMSKI
AVERILL
BOUDREAU
HARTNETT
JRICE
LAZZERI
ROLEN
HODGES
LYNN
SLAUGHTER
DAWSON
BERRA
GARCIAPARRA
BELTRE
HJOHNSON
RAINES
MOLITOR
BOGGS
DaEVANS
DPARKER
FISK
CFIELDER
CRONIN
KBOYER
ROSE
AnJONES
RIPKEN JR
KINGMAN
DMURPHY
JETER
SANTO
GALLARAGA
YOUNT
BANKS
CAMPANELLA
RALOMAR
MWILLIAMS
ECHAVEZ
LARKIN
WHITAKER
PUCKETT

Post #69 has the original work bb-fever was screwing up the coding lineup

[Bothrops Atrox]

Bothrops Atrox It really looks like some factor or factors produced a much more dramatic home field advantage prior to the mid to late 40s. It could have been travel, or something related to televised games which I think started in the early 40s. Perhaps umps favored the home team more prior to televised games. The league home road OPS+ variation went from around 9% to around 4% suddenly in the 40s and has drizzled down even lower today. Those effects would lead us to predict that everyone would tend to get their relative numbers hurt on the road, but when calculating rrOPS+, we compare a players road drop to the league road drop. Anyway, it might matter, and might even support the idea that Umps were the main effect if they might have given big name opposing pitchers more benefit.

By the way, I seem to remember a study that proved that most home road variations even today are the result of umpires favoring the home team. With instant replay I wonder if that goes down.

Yes. SI did a massive comprehensive study/report about 5-6 years ago on a bunch of team sports and found officiating was by far the largest factor in home team advantages.

[brett]

If this is the case, we need to look at why dnraa++ is moving guys from one group of a few decades collectively one direction and the exact opposite for recent decades. There is a pretty staggaring pre expansion/post expansion correlation here. Very unlikey a coincidence.

Bothrops Atrox It really looks like some factor or factors produced a much more dramatic home field advantage prior to the mid to late 40s. It could have been travel, or something related to televised games which I think started in the early 40s. Perhaps umps favored the home team more prior to televised games. The league home road OPS+ variation went from around 9% to around 4% suddenly in the 40s and has drizzled down even lower today. Those effects would lead us to predict that everyone would tend to get their relative numbers hurt on the road, but when calculating rrOPS+, we compare a players road drop to the league road drop. Anyway, it might matter, and might even support the idea that Umps were the main effect if they might have given big name opposing pitchers more benefit.

By the way, I seem to remember a study that proved that most home road variations even today are the result of umpires favoring the home team. With instant replay I wonder if that goes down.

[brett]

I haven't seen Sultan's posts in a while. Anyway, Layson has been working hard on looking at some road defensive splits. As some of us had predicted, Dimaggio looks like he was hurt substantially in sabermetric defensive measures at home. The theory was that having to back up and cover gaps in such a large field cut down on his total chances. Unlike having a home park that hurts batting, Dimaggio's lost defensive war may have not been value "lost" but value that was produced, but not caught by modern metrics which fail to account for cutting off gap hits (as far as I know and at least going back quite a ways).

Anyway, it looks like Y.S. cost Joe around 225 total chances over the course of his career speculatively due to the need to play deeper to cut down extra base hits. A T.C. in the outfield (added to the whole outfield) would theoretically be worth over .7 runs! as a typical extra play made in the outfield is equivalent to turning a single or double into an out. Turning a single into an out is worth about 0.7 runs, and turning a double into an out is about 1.0 runs if I remember how to use linear weights.

That means that 225 TCs lost could have cost him 15-22 defensive WAR! In reality, I suspect that 225 TCs lost would have been picked up in part by other fielders, so dWAR probably is going to credit him with somewhat less than 15-22 extra dWAR as an extra TC by a player probably does not save the full .7+ runs for the entire defense, but It could be on the order of 10 war lost to his parks dimensions and special requirements of cutting down gap hits.

Combine that with his road predicted batting numbers and reasonable WWII losses and he looks like he would have landed somewhere around 110 WAR in 2100 games. That's about as many WAR as Mantle in 300 fewer games and basically matching Lou Gehrig's career WAR and games played.

[Jar of Flies]

Will try to get around to em been kinda busy.

Post #69 has the original post

not sure about the excel file, will look into it

Any luck with updating some of the folks requested:
David Ortiz
Lance Berkman
Reggie Smith
Jeff Kent
Will Clark
Cesar Cedeno
David Concepcion
Phil Rizzuto
Harry Hooper
Joe Sewell
Toby Harrah
Kiki Cuyler
Heinie Groh
Zack Wheat

Thanks : )

[brett]

If this is the case, we need to look at why dnraa++ is moving guys from one group of a few decades collectively one direction and the exact opposite for recent decades. There is a pretty staggaring pre expansion/post expansion correlation here. Very unlikey a coincidence.

It was mentioned earlier in this thread that we "discovered" that home road splits differences suddenly shrink dramatically I think in the late 40s.

[Jar of Flies]

Will try to get around to em been kinda busy.

Post #69 has the original post

not sure about the excel file, will look into it

I was able to get the Excel file to download, thanks and look forward to the names when/if you get some time.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Sultan, not sure if it's my connection, but I can't download any of the Excel documents in post 1.

Was wondering if you had updated David Ortiz?

If you have time, a bakers dozen requests:
Lance Berkman
Reggie Smith
Jeff Kent
Will Clark
Cesar Cedeno
David Concepcion
Phil Rizzuto
Harry Hooper
Joe Sewell
Toby Harrah
Kiki Cuyler
Heinie Groh
Zack Wheat

Thanks in helping me sort out my personal hall of fame!

Will try to get around to em been kinda busy.

Post #69 has the original post

not sure about the excel file, will look into it

[Jar of Flies]

Phenomenal stuff

Edit: Do Griffey...

The initial post is only a partial list of what the guys have tackled, the file I saved from March of 2017 has 178 players, including Griffey Jr.

130.0 rrOPS+
133.9 rrOPS+
136 raw OPS
83.6 WAR
76.6 rrWAR+
-7.0 diff

[bluesky5]

Phenomenal stuff

Edit: Do Griffey...

[Jar of Flies]

Sultan, not sure if it's my connection, but I can't download any of the Excel documents in post 1.

Was wondering if you had updated David Ortiz?

If you have time, a bakers dozen requests:
Lance Berkman
Reggie Smith
Jeff Kent
Will Clark
Cesar Cedeno
David Concepcion
Phil Rizzuto
Harry Hooper
Joe Sewell
Toby Harrah
Kiki Cuyler
Heinie Groh
Zack Wheat

Thanks in helping me sort out my personal hall of fame!

[Sultan_1895-1948]

bumpada bump

........................

[Sultan_1895-1948]

Brett for somebody who prefers WAA over WAR and who prefers to value 7 and 10 year best seasons when ranking...how would you incorporate that into some kind of formula. Let's say you wanted to include slugging efficiency, rrOPS+ WAA, wRC+...what else...isn't there a WAA7 or something that looks at their best 7 seasons? Am I thinking of VEEP or VORP or whatever

[brett]

bumpada bump

[brett]

bumping up