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Does Pujols get to 700?

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    Oh sure Pujols will waltz into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot but he had a shot to be the greatest first baseman ever but that got away from him about five years ago. So far he's hitting .207/.233/.345 this season.
    Does Miguel Cabrera even have a hit yet? We all know that Pujols is no longer a great hitter. But his stats through 6 games have pretty much nothing to do with that.

    Not sure why Pujols NEEDS to be the greatest 1B ever. HE doesn't. He is top 3 without any debate and top 15-20 position player ever. That is great - and all I am saying is that given time, people who look back at baseball history will spend a LOT more time thinking about the amazing things he did do than the few "what could have beens." Those things matter less and less the further we are removed from them.
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    • #17
      Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
      Does Miguel Cabrera even have a hit yet? We all know that Pujols is no longer a great hitter. But his stats through 6 games have pretty much nothing to do with that.

      Not sure why Pujols NEEDS to be the greatest 1B ever. HE doesn't. He is top 3 without any debate and top 15-20 position player ever. That is great - and all I am saying is that given time, people who look back at baseball history will spend a LOT more time thinking about the amazing things he did do than the few "what could have beens." Those things matter less and less the further we are removed from them.
      Im ok with pujols 3rd amongst 1b, but anson, connor, and Brouthers are in the discussion with him (depending on how we interpret 19th century), with mize in the next tier. Pujols has been sniped by injuries and the shift.
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      • #18
        Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post
        Im ok with pujols 3rd amongst 1b, but anson, connor, and Brouthers are in the discussion with him (depending on how we interpret 19th century), with mize in the next tier. Pujols has been sniped by injuries and the shift.
        I have him 2nd, FWIW. I have Connor, Brouthers, and Anson all in my top 10 too. And I am not massive LQ adjuster. But Pujols is way to comparable (if not better) than these three without considering LQ for any of them to be ahead of him.

        The shift is a very undermentioned part of his decline. His hard-hit contact rate has not dropped too much, but his BABIP has plummeted. He has been getting the heavy shift treatment for 3-4 years now. The third wheel of the decline is not taking walks anymore. That is all on him.
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        • #19
          I would put him second among first baseman, and could even make the blasphemous case for him over Gehrig.
          "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

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          • #20
            I think if he plays out his contract he gets to 700 but he might get so bad that he gets released like AROD or retires before the contract is over. Basically homers are the only value left in him (over the last 3 years he only has 7 homers less than trout) and once he falls to 20 or so with his low obp and lack of other value he will either lose a lot of playing playing time or even be out of baseball.
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            • #21
              Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
              Would have to agree. His sustained greatness out of the gate will be the focul point, and when viewing the counting totals, his relatively late starting age will lopk mighy impressive. Hell, we witnessed it all and his stat page still deserves a "holy smokes."
              He was a rookie, and one of the best hitting ones at that, at age 21.

              I think he will end up with about 660 HR. That doesn't seem like much more over five years, but as BA says, more health problems are likely. Also, the way his decline is going, I think it's quite likely that before his contract ends, the Angels will face the tough decision of benching a guy making about $25 million a year. Being able to DH reduces wear and tear on his body, and means there are two options for him in the lineup, but you also expect good hitting from a DH, as he can't produce any value with his glove.
              Last edited by Stolensingle; 04-12-2017, 10:34 PM.

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              • #22
                If Pujols does reach 700 it will be done limping over the threshold.
                "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Stolensingle View Post
                  He was a rookie, and one of the best hitting ones at that, at age 21.

                  I think he will end up with about 660 HR. That doesn't seem like much more over five years, but as BA says, more health problems are likely. Also, the way his decline is going, I think it's quite likely that before his contract ends, the Angels will face the tough decision of benching a guy making about $25 million a year. Being able to DH reduces wear and tear on his body, and means there are two options for him in the lineup, but you also expect good hitting from a DH, as he can't produce any value with his glove.
                  I think he was more like 24 during his rookie season
                  "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                  ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                    I think he was more like 24 during his rookie season
                    Which makes what he has done the past 5 years actually...pretty darn impressive. I mean, he has put up some pretty historically good numbers for a 38-42 year old. Kinda changes how we should view him and his decline.
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                    • #25
                      It's hard to say, because declines aren't always a steady slope, sometimes it's falling off a cliff and not returning. After 2015, A-rod looked a lock to get 700 homers, as he had 687 and was coming off a good, 33 HR season. Then...he just couldn't hit anymore. let's see if Albert gets to 600 before looking at 700.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                        Which makes what he has done the past 5 years actually...pretty darn impressive. I mean, he has put up some pretty historically good numbers for a 38-42 year old. Kinda changes how we should view him and his decline.
                        As far as I am aware no one has ever produced any verifiable evidence that Pujols is older than his official DOB. Some people claim that Pujols is 5 years older than he claims to be. If that is actually true that that would mean that Pujols was 23 years old and still in high school. That seems extremely unlikely.
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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                          Which makes what he has done the past 5 years actually...pretty darn impressive. I mean, he has put up some pretty historically good numbers for a 38-42 year old. Kinda changes how we should view him and his decline.
                          I don't think anyone believes he's six years older than his listed age. Possibly the three that Sultan implies, which would make his first five years with the Angels 35-39. And what is unusual about his decline is not when it began--late 20s, by his listed age--but how precipitous it was. Even if one believes he's three years older, and produced at his peak into his early 30s, the suddenness of his decline is still surprising.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Stolensingle View Post
                            I don't think anyone believes he's six years older than his listed age. Possibly the three that Sultan implies, which would make his first five years with the Angels 35-39. And what is unusual about his decline is not when it began--late 20s, by his listed age--but how precipitous it was. Even if one believes he's three years older, and produced at his peak into his early 30s, the suddenness of his decline is still surprising.
                            It was tongue-in-cheek. Wasn't it obvious? There is actually a lot more evidence that he is the age he claims than that he is older. I don't think he is more than a year older than what he suggests.

                            But yes, to be technical - if he were 3-4 years older than what is "official", he would have been 35-36 to 39-40 as an Angel. If so - it is true that averaging 3.3 WAR per season from ages 35/36 to 38/39 really isn't unusual for an All-Timer his age in and of itself. It was the fact that he averaged 8.1 from hypothetical ages "30/31-34/35" that would be the amazing part.
                            Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 04-18-2017, 06:26 PM.
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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                              As far as I am aware no one has ever produced any verifiable evidence that Pujols is older than his official DOB. Some people claim that Pujols is 5 years older than he claims to be. If that is actually true that that would mean that Pujols was 23 years old and still in high school. That seems extremely unlikely.
                              Exactly my point. I guess it is possible, but not likely he is much different from his listed age at all.
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                              • #30
                                I believe most of the suspicions regarding Pujols are simply lumping him in with the dozens of other players from Latin America who entered the game around the same time and did lie about their age, but most of those did not go through the U.S. public education system first like Albert did. Pujols was held back a grade when entering school. He was 16 when his family immigrated here, but enrolled in public school as a sophomore because he did not speak English. The other boys his age were a grade ahead of him. In other words, by Pujols' senior year on the team, he was a year older than any other kid on the field. That's a perception - not an integrity - issue. His incredible burst onto the major league scene a few years later was another factor in the "kids this age aren't supposed to be this good" column so that probably added to it as well.

                                But most of the whispers are the product of other players' behavior, not anything suspicious on Pujols' part.
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                                "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                                "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                                "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

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