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Does Pujols get to 700?

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  • #31
    Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
    I believe most of the suspicions regarding Pujols are simply lumping him in with the dozens of other players from Latin America who entered the game around the same time and did lie about their age, but most of those did not go through the U.S. public education system first like Albert did. Pujols was held back a grade when entering school. He was 16 when his family immigrated here, but enrolled in public school as a sophomore because he did not speak English. The other boys his age were a grade ahead of him. In other words, by Pujols' senior year on the team, he was a year older than any other kid on the field. That's a perception - not an integrity - issue. His incredible burst onto the major league scene a few years later was another factor in the "kids this age aren't supposed to be this good" column so that probably added to it as well.

    But most of the whispers are the product of other players' behavior, not anything suspicious on Pujols' part.
    Spot on Chadwick. Pujols graduated from high school in December 1998 about a month before his 19th birthday. He played one year of Juco ball at age 19 then was drafted June 1999.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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    • #32
      Discussions like this are right in my wheelhouse, because you can play with the numbers, use the Favorite Toy, and make up your own assumptions as you go.

      Pujols has a statistical chance to get to 700 HRs, but the reality of that would lead one to believe that he would have to play for a dead-end team who can afford a one-dimensional player. That team would also have to use him as a DH, see him stay healthy, still give him days off for rest after travelling. That is a lot of what-ifs, and then there is the clubhouse dimension. As it stands, I believe he gets along well with Trout. Further, Trout might be easy to get along with, but that will likely continue for only as long as the Angels are competitive. This comment would apply to the rest of the locker room. From what I remember over time, teams which keep a star/has-been around for the sake of filling seats and for the pursuit of statistics have usually ended up with sinkholes in the locker room chemistry. Mike Trout will probably not like that arrangement, and he would ask to be traded. Trout has four years left on his contract, and that is just inside the window we are discussing, and it would lead to locker room animosity.

      It would boil down to should the Angels keep Pujols for the sake of 700 HRs, or should the Angels try to keep the most exciting (or one of the most exciting) players of modern times.

      It is this fan's hope that Pujols sees this, and then places greater statistical weight on keeping his .300 career BA. While BA isn't a significant stat anymore, with 9196 official ABs as of this post, a 0.300 career average is more impressive than 700 HRs.
      Last edited by abolishthedh; 04-20-2017, 06:40 AM.
      Catfish Hunter, RIP. Mark Fidrych, RIP. Skip Caray, RIP. Tony Gwynn, #19, RIP

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      • #33
        Originally posted by abolishthedh View Post
        It is this fan's hope that Pujols sees this, and then places greater statistical weight on keeping his .300 career BA. While BA isn't a significant stat anymore, with 9196 official ABs as of this post, a 0.300 career average is more impressive than 700 HRs.
        In what way? TONS more people have hit .300. Even some players who overall, were not all-that-great players.
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        • #34
          Combining Pujols accomplishments to date, which I trust we agree upon, including a 0.300 BA over a denominator that large adds more to his profile than becoming the fourth guy to make 700.

          Enough guys like Pujols have played over time to draw some comparisons and have some debates, but these players are not recent players who have generally been clear of PED accusations. Good grief, not even Griffey, Jr can be included on that discussion. However, we will be able to include Miggy Cabrera.
          Catfish Hunter, RIP. Mark Fidrych, RIP. Skip Caray, RIP. Tony Gwynn, #19, RIP

          A fanatic is someone who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. -- Winston Churchill.

          Experience is the hardest teacher. She gives the test first and the lesson later. -- Dan Quisenberry.

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          • #35
            Originally posted by abolishthedh View Post
            Combining Pujols accomplishments to date, which I trust we agree upon, including a 0.300 BA over a denominator that large adds more to his profile than becoming the fourth guy to make 700.

            Enough guys like Pujols have played over time to draw some comparisons and have some debates, but these players are not recent players who have generally been clear of PED accusations. Good grief, not even Griffey, Jr can be included on that discussion. However, we will be able to include Miggy Cabrera.
            I doubt most people know if he is currently over .300 or not. I couldn't tell you what his BA is. I am guessing somewhere between .300 and .310. Everybody with even a middling sports interest will know if he hits 700.
            Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 04-20-2017, 07:38 AM.
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            • #36
              Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
              In what way? TONS more people have hit .300. Even some players who overall, were not all-that-great players.
              Yes. But it also depends on the era in the 1920s the league average sone times was over 290. In that time it was quite easy to hit 300. Now it has become much rarer due to all the strikeouts.

              Still of course 700 or even 600 is a much bigger achievement than 300. But I do think career 300 hitters will get rarer, currently there are 13 active career 300 hitters and at least half of them will probably lose that status until they are retired (just over 300 ND declining)
              I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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              • #37
                That's actually an interesting question. I'm guessing if put to a vote, 700 would win hands down. Afterall, it's a rare and sexy number.

                Looked at in full context though, I would go with .300+ batting average when combined with his other numbers, being more impressive.

                A right handed, average speed guy, facing righties in 75% of his PA at the height of the specialized relief era, with ultra advanced fielding equipment and scouting....yeah that's damn impressive; regardless how much value one puts into the raw (and simpleton) BA stat.
                "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post

                  Looked at in full context though, I would go with .300+ batting average when combined with his other numbers, being more impressive.
                  Well - why couldn't I combine the 700 HRs with other numbers too for perspective?
                  Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 04-20-2017, 10:34 AM.
                  1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by dominik View Post
                    Yes. But it also depends on the era in the 1920s the league average sone times was over 290. In that time it was quite easy to hit 300. Now it has become much rarer due to all the strikeouts.

                    Still of course 700 or even 600 is a much bigger achievement than 300. But I do think career 300 hitters will get rarer, currently there are 13 active career 300 hitters and at least half of them will probably lose that status until they are retired (just over 300 ND declining)
                    Just at his decline. His first 9-10 years were firmly in a high-scoring era with lots of .300 averages. The offensive slide didn't really start until he was almost out of St. Louis.

                    The bottom line - regardless of what era parameters you want to set (which you could do the same for HRs) hitting 700 HRs is significantly more rare and will be viewed a a much more significant accomplishment.

                    Did Albert Belle hit .300? Bagwell? Mark Grace? I seriously have no idea and I am a huge stat fan. Who here knows those questions off the top of their heads? Who in the public knows? Everyone knows who hits 700 HRs.
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                    • #40
                      Not really a big deal either way since he VERY likely ain't hitting 700 HRs or staying over .300 for his career.
                      1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                        Well - why couldn't I combine the 700 HRs with other numbers too for perspective?
                        The point is that his environment was HR friendly, NOT BA friendly, especially given the factors I mentioned.
                        "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                        ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                          The point is that his environment was HR friendly, NOT BA friendly, especially given the factors I mentioned.
                          Was his prime from 2001 - 2011 not BA friendly? I mean - I know it wasn't the 30's or anything, but I don't think BAs during that time were particularly low either. Seems like BAs were relatively failry high until 2010 or so.

                          Regardless - IO think you overestimate how much most people care about context and I still think hitting 700 in ANY era is a bigger deal than hitting .300 in ANY era.
                          1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                          1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                            Was his prime from 2001 - 2011 not BA friendly? I mean - I know it wasn't the 30's or anything, but I don't think BAs during that time were particularly low either. Seems like BAs were relatively failry high until 2010 or so.

                            Regardless - IO think you overestimate how much most people care about context and I still think hitting 700 in ANY era is a bigger deal than hitting .300 in ANY era.
                            I started off my post by stating that most people would answer 700. So how am I over estimating how much the average fan cares about context. I'm fully aware they couldn't give two sh*ts.
                            "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                            ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                              I started off my post by stating that most people would answer 700. So how am I over estimating how much the average fan cares about context. I'm fully aware they couldn't give two sh*ts.
                              Fair enough. So .300 is a bigger deal to you. Got it.
                              1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                              1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                              1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                              The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                                Fair enough. So .300 is a bigger deal to you. Got it.
                                .300 along with his other numbers is more impressive to me, than him limping his way to 700 while hitting ,280
                                "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                                ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

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