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Does Pujols get to 700?

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  • #46
    Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    .300 along with his other numbers is more impressive to me, than him limping his way to 700 while hitting ,280
    I would beshocked to see a dip all the way to .280. That would be a monumental drop.

    .290 and 700 seems more eyepopping to me (on the surface) than if he retired next month with 600 and .305. But that is just me.
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    • #47
      Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
      That's actually an interesting question. I'm guessing if put to a vote, 700 would win hands down. Afterall, it's a rare and sexy number.

      Looked at in full context though, I would go with .300+ batting average when combined with his other numbers, being more impressive.

      A right handed, average speed guy, facing righties in 75% of his PA at the height of the specialized relief era, with ultra advanced fielding equipment and scouting....yeah that's damn impressive; regardless how much value one puts into the raw (and simpleton) BA stat.
      Through 2010 Pujols' career BA was .331 which I thought was insane. I figured with a solid decline he could finish with a .320 career batting. I never imagined that Pujols would have a horrid decline phase. He's down to .308 as of yesterday and dropping. He's current hitting .190 this season. What are the odds he retires in the next year or two?
      Last edited by Honus Wagner Rules; 04-20-2017, 06:54 PM.
      Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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      • #48
        Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
        Through 2010 Pujols' career BA was .331 which I thought was insane. I figured with a solid decline he could finish with a .320 career batting. I never imagined that Pujols would have a horrid decline phase. He's down to .308 as of yesterday and dropping. He's current hitting .190 this season. What are the odds he retires in the next year or two?
        The shifts have really killed him. Most of his hard hit balls up the middle are routine groundouts now. And he hasn't adapted at all.

        That and the injuries, of course.
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        • #49
          Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
          I would beshocked to see a dip all the way to .280. That would be a monumental drop.

          .290 and 700 seems more eyepopping to me (on the surface) than if he retired next month with 600 and .305. But that is just me.
          I agree that just from a WOW! factor the 0.290/700 looks more impressive (to me).


          As to the shifting, how much (or little) do you think it would have affected him if they had done it for a full career when he was younger and probably better able to deal with it? Maybe knock 10 points off his career average?
          I'm getting a 2011 Royals vibe from the White Sox.

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          • #50
            Originally posted by Toledo Inquisition View Post
            I agree that just from a WOW! factor the 0.290/700 looks more impressive (to me).


            As to the shifting, how much (or little) do you think it would have affected him if they had done it for a full career when he was younger and probably better able to deal with it? Maybe knock 10 points off his career average?
            Well, he used to hit the other way quite a bit when he was younger. He went away from trying to hit it the other way about the same time the shifts started. It was a double whammy.
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            • #51
              Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
              The shifts have really killed him. Most of his hard hit balls up the middle are routine groundouts now. And he hasn't adapted at all.

              That and the injuries, of course.
              The shifts are part of the equation. One factor compounds the impact of another factor, which influences yet another. To put it simply, he would be able to adjust and render the shift less effective, if he were facing a Jamie Moyer. But facing guys routinely throwing 95-97 changes everything. You need to gear up for that heat and your margin of error to make adjustments dwindles. This if course, on top of minimal room for outfield hits to drop in and facing the same hand 3/4 of the time.
              "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

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              • #52
                Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                Through 2010 Pujols' career BA was .331 which I thought was insane. I figured with a solid decline he could finish with a .320 career batting. I never imagined that Pujols would have a horrid decline phase. He's down to .308 as of yesterday and dropping. He's current hitting .190 this season. What are the odds he retires in the next year or two?
                Pujols' relative BA at this point is still pretty insane. It's about the same as Gehrig's & Sisler's. Pretty awesome for a guy with almost 600 Hr's.

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                • #53
                  Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                  The shifts are part of the equation. One factor compounds the impact of another factor, which influences yet another. To put it simply, he would be able to adjust and render the shift less effective, if he were facing a Jamie Moyer. But facing guys routinely throwing 95-97 changes everything. You need to gear up for that heat and your margin of error to make adjustments dwindles. This if course, on top of minimal room for outfield hits to drop in and facing the same hand 3/4 of the time.
                  All true...
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                  • #54
                    Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
                    The shifts are part of the equation. One factor compounds the impact of another factor, which influences yet another. To put it simply, he would be able to adjust and render the shift less effective, if he were facing a Jamie Moyer. But facing guys routinely throwing 95-97 changes everything. You need to gear up for that heat and your margin of error to make adjustments dwindles. This if course, on top of minimal room for outfield hits to drop in and facing the same hand 3/4 of the time.
                    You couldn't be more correct. Paul Konerko made a living just crushing fastballs - at age 36 in 2012 he was still dialing up the heat and turning on them. However, he then hurt his hand, and never recovered his ability to hit the fastball; he played the next two years at a greatly reduced level because he couldn't handle the fastball, and had to retire. This cost him a very outside chance of making the HOF. He would have needed very strong age 37-39 seasons to reach 500 homers, which would have been his only way into the HOF. Once he couldn't hit the best fastballs, he was done.
                    I'm getting a 2011 Royals vibe from the White Sox.

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                    • #55
                      Originally posted by layson27 View Post
                      Pujols' relative BA at this point is still pretty insane. It's about the same as Gehrig's & Sisler's. Pretty awesome for a guy with almost 600 Hr's.
                      Great point. And I would argue that all relative numbers are not created equally. Perhaps that is a discussion for another time.

                      I will say this...as I stated before, his legacy is cemented for me, regardless if he limps to 700 or drops to .290. In my opinion he is a top five elite hybrid guy. Not for his era, not for a righty...all time. Can't express enough how lucky we were he came along when he did.
                      "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                      ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                        Through 2010 Pujols' career BA was .331 which I thought was insane. I figured with a solid decline he could finish with a .320 career batting. I never imagined that Pujols would have a horrid decline phase. He's down to .308 as of yesterday and dropping. He's current hitting .190 this season. What are the odds he retires in the next year or two?
                        No way he retires in a year or two. He has five years left on a back-loaded contract. He isn't going to walk away from all that money, especially since he left St. L. angry that they wouldn't pay him more. Albert has enormous pride, and I think he would feel humiliated if after going to a higher bidder, he ended up getting far less of the money he signed for.

                        Also, while I don't know if he's thinking much about 700 HR at this point, he surely wants to reach 3000 hits, and he won't do that till 2018 at the soonest, and if he goes down with any kind of injury during that time, it could be longer.

                        Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                        I would beshocked to see a dip all the way to .280. That would be a monumental drop.
                        Yeah, it's virtually impossible, as I see it. Let's say he plays out the five final years of his contract in perfect health, never misses a game except for the occasional rest day. He could average 600 AB per season, or 3000 for the five years. If his BA for that period was .230, he would finish with a career average of just below .290. But expecting him not to miss any time with injuries, aging problems, etc., over the next five years is pretty unrealistic. Also, even if his overall average for that period was worse than .230, in that case he surely would be benched, and wouldn't get all those AB. IOW, to drop below .290, he would have to hit at such a poor level that he wouldn't play enough for the poor hitting to affect his career average enough.

                        I'd guess he'll finish his career with a BA in the mid to high .290s. He'll dip below .300 unless he spends about half of his final five years on the DL or the bench.

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                        • #57
                          Originally posted by Stolensingle View Post
                          No way he retires in a year or two. He has five years left on a back-loaded contract. He isn't going to walk away from all that money, especially since he left St. L. angry that they wouldn't pay him more. Albert has enormous pride, and I think he would feel humiliated if after going to a higher bidder, he ended up getting far less of the money he signed for.
                          What if Pujols hits .190-.200 all season? At some point the Angels will try someone else at first base. I doubt they'll play a .200 hitter with a sub .300 OBP for 3-4 seasons.
                          Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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                          • #58
                            Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                            What if Pujols hits .190-.200 all season? At some point the Angels will try someone else at first base. I doubt they'll play a .200 hitter with a sub .300 OBP for 3-4 seasons.
                            Can't rule that out positively, but his preceding years don't support it. He's had periods when he hit poorly--remember, his first year with the Angels he opened the season by going more than a month without a HR, and was hitting under .200 at one point in early May--but he bounced back. No reason to think he still can't hit .240 - .250 with some power, and with Trout in front of him, he will drive in a lot of runs. He's leading the team in RBI right now.

                            But the problem you speak of is likely to arrive before the end of his contract, I agree with that.

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                            • #59
                              I agree it's too early to really know but Pujols is 37 now which is not a positive for him. I do hope he gets it going soon.
                              Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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                              • #60
                                I would be surprised if he makes it, but it's possible. If he can maintain his 2014-2016 level of performance and stay healthy he could do it, but I would be surprised. Given his injury history one would have to assume he will continue to decline. If he gets any worse he really is not helping the team.

                                He really has driven off the bridge. I would have expected an ops+ of around 130-135 the last 4 years.
                                Last edited by dl4060; 05-08-2017, 07:15 PM.

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