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Does Pujols get to 700?

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  • Does Pujols get to 700?

    Possible, if you think about it. He is @ 592 right now, and is employed for four more seasons, incl. this one. Can he hit 27 hrs/yr, for the next four? Hmmmmm.....
    Last edited by riffwraith; 04-09-2017, 04:40 PM.

  • #2
    It's highly unlikely at this point, but it's not impossible.
    My top 10 players:

    1. Babe Ruth
    2. Barry Bonds
    3. Ty Cobb
    4. Ted Williams
    5. Willie Mays
    6. Alex Rodriguez
    7. Hank Aaron
    8. Honus Wagner
    9. Lou Gehrig
    10. Mickey Mantle

    Comment


    • #3
      Extremely unlikely. He has averaged 29.2 HRs per season the previous five years. Expecting him to do so again at his age with more and more injured mounting is more than a little presumptuous.
      Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 04-10-2017, 07:00 AM.
      1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

      1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

      1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


      The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
      The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

      Comment


      • #4
        If it's a number he cares about and is motivated to reach it, I think he can. We underestimate the impact having a goal to shoot for provides.

        It certainly wouldn't hurt to switch teams and find a cozy bandbox for his twighlight years.
        Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-10-2017, 07:57 AM.
        "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

        ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
          If it's a number he cares about and is motivated to reach it, I think he can. We underestimate the impact having a goal to shoot for provides.

          It certainly wouldn't hurt to switch teams and find a cozy bandbox for his twighlight years.
          The biggest obstacle is injuries. He really can't afford any major injury at all. The window is that small. One more 2013, and his chances are basically zero. If he misses a half season one time - he will have to hit in the mid 30's the rest of the year per season. I don;t think he is/will be good enough - even with will power- to make that happen.
          1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

          1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

          1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


          The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
          The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

          Comment


          • #6
            Pujols turned 37 in January.

            Looking back, Reggie Jackson turned '37 in may of '83 and hit 99 in his last 5 seasons while being a -8 WAA and basically zero WAR player. I bring this up because I think he could certainly do it, but would probably have to do it while being a below average or even below war player for quite a stretch.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by brett View Post
              Pujols turned 37 in January.

              Looking back, Reggie Jackson turned '37 in may of '83 and hit 99 in his last 5 seasons while being a -8 WAA and basically zero WAR player. I bring this up because I think he could certainly do it, but would probably have to do it while being a below average or even below war player for quite a stretch.
              Can you get a list of players with 109+ HRs from age 37 on?
              1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

              1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

              1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


              The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
              The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                Can you get a list of players with 109+ HRs from age 37 on?
                Using Fangraphs age parameters, players 37 and older HRs, top 30:

                195 Barry Bonds
                163 Hank Aaron
                152 Darrell Evans
                146 Carlton Fisk
                140 David Ortiz
                127 Ted Williams
                123 Raul Ibanez
                122 Rafael Palmeiro
                114 Carl Yastrzemski
                111 Edgar Martinez
                111 Andres Galarraga
                108 Dave Winfield
                105 Jim Thome
                103 Babe Ruth
                102 Steve Finley
                99 Reggie Jackson
                97 Hank Sauer
                96 Willie Mays
                96 Craig Biggio
                95 Graig Nettles
                94 Stan Musial
                93 Moises Alou
                90 Eddie Murray
                87 Willie Stargell
                86 Willie McCovey
                85 Frank Thomas
                83 Harold Baines
                80 Brian Downing
                78 Cy Williams
                76 Fred McGriff
                Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
                http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post
                  Using Fangraphs age parameters, players 37 and older HRs, top 30:

                  195 Barry Bonds
                  163 Hank Aaron
                  152 Darrell Evans
                  146 Carlton Fisk
                  140 David Ortiz
                  127 Ted Williams
                  123 Raul Ibanez
                  122 Rafael Palmeiro
                  114 Carl Yastrzemski
                  111 Edgar Martinez
                  111 Andres Galarraga
                  Yeah - and these guys were all aging much better than Pujols at 37.

                  Look, I am not saying it is impossible. I just wouldn't bet money on it.
                  1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                  1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                  1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                  The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                  The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    As a big Albert Pujols fan it pains me to see him reduced to a mediocre hitter. His career rate stats continue to fall. Will he end up with a sub .300 career batting average?
                    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      For me, Albert's legacy is already written. Perhaps because I rank on greatness more-so than career value. What he does from now until the end isn't meaningless, but he can help himself more than he can hurt himself imo. If that makes sense.
                      "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                      ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                        As a big Albert Pujols fan it pains me to see him reduced to a mediocre hitter. His career rate stats continue to fall. Will he end up with a sub .300 career batting average?
                        Maybe - but with a historically good peak AND (likely) 600 HRs, 2000 RBIs, 600 doubles, and 3,000 hits for counting stats, I think history looking ba ck on his career will view him more favorably than what those of us do who are watching his decline.
                        1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                        1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                        1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                        The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                        The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                          Maybe - but with a historically good peak AND (likely) 600 HRs, 2000 RBIs, 600 doubles, and 3,000 hits for counting stats, I think history looking ba ck on his career will view him more favorably than what those of us do who are watching his decline.
                          Would have to agree. His sustained greatness out of the gate will be the focul point, and when viewing the counting totals, his relatively late starting age will lopk mighy impressive. Hell, we witnessed it all and his stat page still deserves a "holy smokes."
                          "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

                          ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by riffwraith View Post
                            Possible, if you think about it. He is @ 592 right now, and is employed for four more seasons, incl. this one. Can he hit 27 hrs/yr, for the next four? Hmmmmm.....
                            Actually, Pujols is signed for 5 seasons, including this year,. His contract expires after the 2021 season. So, 17-18-19-20-21: 5 more seasons. I'm not sure that increases his likelihood of reaching 700. The tale probably will be told in the next 3 seasons.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                              Maybe - but with a historically good peak AND (likely) 600 HRs, 2000 RBIs, 600 doubles, and 3,000 hits for counting stats, I think history looking ba ck on his career will view him more favorably than what those of us do who are watching his decline.
                              Oh sure Pujols will waltz into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot but he had a shot to be the greatest first baseman ever but that got away from him about five years ago. So far he's hitting .207/.233/.345 this season.
                              Last edited by Honus Wagner Rules; 04-10-2017, 08:25 PM.
                              Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                              Comment

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