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  • demise of hall of miller and eric/ dr chaleeko at bbtf

    Yesterday was a sad day for folks like me who really like the work on this site on Negro League MLEs. I posted a sorry to hear that comment and pleading for at least a few specific cases, and got an answer from Miller that Eric, aka Dr Chaleeko at BBTF probably will continue to post his work there, just not as frequently as in the HoME format. I propose that if folks become aware of new MLEs by Dr. Chaleeko over there (I'm not a member and they're not taking new ones) that they post who the MLE is of, and if the thread isn't the name of the person whose MLE was posted, the name of the thread. That way with a search engine, I and others can find the post with the new MLE.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

  • #2
    I had MLE's saved on my old PC for like 80+ Negro League players. I'll see if they're still on the hard drive at my moms. You did MLE's for Japanese players. What do you think about this article from the Yes/No/Maybe HoF thread...

    Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post
    The best pro-argument for Matsui I am aware of:
    https://homemlb.wordpress.com/2018/0...ew-candidates/
    It said that NPB is between AAA & MLB in terms of talent? Or 90% of MLB? What does 90% of MLB mean? Do you think that's accurate? I can't remember what adjustment your MLE's used.

    Edit: I wish I could learn how to do MLE's. I'd MLE everyone.
    Last edited by bluesky5; 07-23-2018, 08:44 AM.
    "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
      I had MLE's saved on my old PC for like 80+ Negro League players. I'll see if they're still on the hard drive at my moms. You did MLE's for Japanese players. What do you think about this article from the Yes/No/Maybe HoF thread...



      It said that NPB is between AAA & MLB in terms of talent? Or 90% of MLB? What does 90% of MLB mean? Do you think that's accurate? I can't remember what adjustment your MLE's used.

      Edit: I wish I could learn how to do MLE's. I'd MLE everyone.
      I don;t try to fit MLEs in those pigeon holes. Guys going from Japan to MLB lose a lot of their home runs, as Hideki Matsui did. The HoME article didn't address this issue, and in looking at Matsui for the Hall, that's ignoring an elephant in the room. Hideki Matsui probably looks like a HOFer if we assume my MLEs for him are 100% accurate and add them to his MLB numbers. Unfortunately, MLEs are educated estimates--and Hideki Matsui didn't play at the level we'd expect from a HOFer even if we limit it to the period from his age when he began in the majors to the end of his career. I've got enough trouble selling the NPB guys I'm much more sure of without getting into what would be a very hard fight at best in Matsui. I also am not too keen on supporting what I see as very borderline cases based on MLEs because then if your assumptions are off just a little, the guy can fall below the borderline.

      Beyond the homers, the NPB to MLB adjustments are modest. If you want to know more about how I did it, it's all spelled out in this article: http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/an...lbright13.html
      Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
      Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
      A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by jalbright View Post
        Yesterday was a sad day for folks like me who really like the work on this site on Negro League MLEs. I posted a sorry to hear that comment and pleading for at least a few specific cases, and got an answer from Miller that Eric, aka Dr Chaleeko at BBTF probably will continue to post his work there, just not as frequently as in the HoME format. I propose that if folks become aware of new MLEs by Dr. Chaleeko over there (I'm not a member and they're not taking new ones) that they post who the MLE is of, and if the thread isn't the name of the person whose MLE was posted, the name of the thread. That way with a search engine, I and others can find the post with the new MLE.
        If by not a member, you mean the Baseball Think Factory Hall of Merit, I am a member and they should still be taking new voters.
        Regardless, any updates I see from the site, I can try to setup a thread here, use an existing to pass along the info, etc.
        Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
        http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

        Comment


        • #5
          No, I tried to sign up as a member of BBTF, and got a screen telling me they don't take new members.
          Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
          Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
          A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by jalbright View Post
            No, I tried to sign up as a member of BBTF, and got a screen telling me they don't take new members.
            Ugh, I know the site has periodic issues, I will see if I can get a remedy for this.
            Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
            http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by jalbright View Post
              No, I tried to sign up as a member of BBTF, and got a screen telling me they don't take new members.
              Maybe try visiting the link, consult Jim Furtado through this or twitter.
              http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/stuff/feedback
              Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
              http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

              Comment


              • #8
                I am giving that a try. I'll let you know if I have any luck.
                Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Any luck yet Jim in signing up?

                  I did a deep dive on collecting the current MLEs published at The Hall of Miller and Eric, added prime level value for guys with World War II credit, applied 37% additional credit for catchers (this is similar to vein to other WAR systems I review), estimates for pitchers hitting WAA, and I gathered the following, ordered by a weighting of 40% WAA and 60% WAR:

                  70.0/122.1/101.3 - Satchel Paige
                  67.2/123.8/100.6 - Smoky Joe Williams

                  68.8/100.6/87.9 - Josh Gibson - only given a 7% bonus for catching, MLEs suggest he would have been mainly a first basemen in MLB.
                  63.1/100.0/85.2 - Oscar Charleston

                  56.3/92.4/78.0 - John Henry Lloyd
                  53.6/93.1/77.3 - Willie Wells
                  53.0/89.3/74.8 - Bullet Joe Rogan - estimate from splitting hitting and pitching MLEs
                  51.7/89.0/74.1 - Martin Dihigo - estimate from splitting hitting and pitching MLEs
                  45.4/93.0/74.0 - Dick Redding
                  50.0/81.1/68.7 - Turkey Stearnes - upside with remaining missing data

                  49.0/80.5/67.9 - Monte Irvin
                  43.9/82.2/66.9 - Pete Hill
                  46.4/80.3/66.7 - Biz Mackey
                  45.0/75.1/63.1 - Cristobal Torriente
                  48.3/72.4/62.8 - Jud Wilson

                  41.3/71.0/59.1 - Buck Leonard
                  40.3/71.1/58.8 - Quincy Trouppe
                  40.2/71.0/58.7 - Bus Clarkson
                  38.8/71.5/58.4 - Silvio Garcia
                  35.7/71.6/57.2 - Ben Taylor
                  34.7/70.9/56.4 - Alejandro Oms
                  40.0/67.0/56.2 - Louis Santop
                  44.7/63.4/55.9 - Dobie Moore
                  38.1/67.5/55.7 - Dick Lundy
                  33.7/70.3/55.7 - Willie Foster
                  35.9/68.0/55.2 - Home Run Johnson
                  33.0/69.0/54.6 - Frank Grant - Blind estimate
                  38.2/63.9/53.6 - Jose Mendez

                  35.6/72.0/57.4 - Sammy Bankhead - significant data missing, likely a little or a lot overrated
                  35.1/63.3/52.0 - Ray Dandridge - Eric not fully comfortable with offensive translation
                  -----Hall of Fame line in Cooperstown of current elected players if we count Rube Foster as a manager-----
                  32.9/62.3/50.5 - Marvin Williams
                  24.8/67.5/50.4 - Ramon Bargana
                  25.5/65.4/49.4 - Ray Brown - some data missing, like underrated
                  25.0/64.0/48.4 - Luke Easter - highly provisional, some additional credit given for late career

                  28.9/60.0/47.6 - Andy Cooper - significant data missing, likely a bit overrated
                  22.4/64.2/47.5 - Bill Byrd
                  29.2/59.5/47.4 - Barney Serrell
                  26.5/61.0/47.2 - Hilton Smith
                  28.8/59.3/47.1 - Mule Suttles - significant data missing, likely a little or a lot underrated
                  25.9/60.9/46.9 - Willard Brown - highly provisional
                  28.4/58.8/46.6 - Conrado Marrero
                  32.1/53.3/44.8 - John Beckwith
                  22.5/59.6/44.8 - Rube Foster
                  21.4/58.4/43.6 - Cool Papa Bell - significant data missing, likely underrated

                  26.9/56.8/44.8 - Bill Pettus - add an age 23 season
                  26.5/56.7/44.6 - Juan Padron
                  22.8/58.5/44.2 - Dave Barnhill - significant data missing, likely overrated
                  27.4/51.4/41.8 - Regino Garcia - season added to early career
                  22.2/54.0/41.3 - Sam Jethroe
                  23.3/52.8/41.0 - George Scales
                  21.5/53.7/40.8 - Pelayo Chacon
                  17.0/55.7/40.2 - Walter Ball
                  27.0/49.0/40.2 - Carlos Moran - estimate of MLE split between 3B and OF
                  14.7/56.8/40.0 - Carlos Royer - highly provisional
                  18.1/54.0/39.6 - Webster McDonald
                  21.3/51.5/39.4 - Rev Cannady
                  21.8/51.0/39.3 - Spotswood Poles
                  19.5/52.5/39.3 - Leon Day - lacking some data

                  27.1/45.2/38.0 - Julian Castillo - abrupt end to career, potential for more?
                  23.6/47.2/37.8 - Bill Monroe - significant data missing, maybe underrating?
                  17.9/47.0/35.4 - Elston Howard
                  16.0/47.7/35.0 - Leroy Matlock - significant data missing, maybe underrating?

                  7.0/32.0/22.0 - Judy Johnson



                  Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
                  http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I tried contacting the webmaster for the site, no response.
                    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Using the WAR and career lengths from Eric Chaleeko in the now dormant Hall of Miller and Eric project, I came up with regressions to calculate the peak figures based on the all the players with at least 5000 MLB career PA or at least 2000 career MLB IP that I got in my rating system. I split out catchers because of the adjustments I make for their more limited career lengths. Once I got that calculation, I added it back to the Chaleeko's calculated WAR to get a good match for my rating system. This is necessary because the methods used to get the career WAR flatten player peaks too much. One thing I like is that this approach factors in playing time. If two guys amass the same career WAR but player A does it in less playing time, it's almost certain A is the stronger HOF candidate because he has a higher peak. This method recognizes that fact.

                      I don't agree with all these numbers subjectively, but I think they're quite useful. I've included some notes and comments as well.

                      Please remember in my system, the general outline is below 100, you don't belong. I've only given two guys with results below that, and they're both in Cooperstown. If you're over 125, you almost certainly belong absent Joe Jackson/Pete Rose/PED issues, and we don't have to worry about PEDs for Negro Leaguers. In between, the higher the score, the more likely you belong, the lower, the less likely you belong. 112.5 is the 50/50 spot.

                      I'm not as sold on Chaleeko's evaluations of deadball guys or those who played mostly outside the US (mostly Cuba).

                      Frank Grant isn't in because we don't have the data, and Oscar Heavy Johnson is one Eric hasn't published yet.

                      Without further ado:
                      ...
                      Code:
                       
                      rating player notes/comments
                      220.6 Satchel Paige
                      217.4 Josh Gibson
                      209.6 Pop Lloyd
                      208.3 Smoky Joe Williams
                      188.3 Oscar Charleston
                      178.9 Turkey Stearnes
                      173.7 Willie Wells
                      167.7 Cannonball Redding
                      163.7 Buck Leonard
                      160.4 Pete Hill
                      159.2 Dick Lundy
                      158.2 Jud Wilson
                      156.8 Bullet Joe Rogan split between all p and pos
                      156.0 Cristobal Torriente
                      155.4 Martin Dihigo
                      147.6 Ray Dandridge seems awfully high to me
                      145.3 Louis Santop
                      143.5 Ben Taylor
                      142.5 Dobie Moore
                      141.2 Alejandro Oms
                      137.5 Grant Johnson
                      137.0 Biz Mackey
                      136.6 Ramon Bragana not USA
                      136.4 Willie Foster
                      134.5 Quincy Trouppe
                      134.0 Sam Bankhead perhaps a tad high, but has some cushion
                      133.7 Jose Mendez
                      131.8 Roy Campanella
                      130.7 Marvin Williams glove questionable
                      130.4 Rube Foster
                      130.4 Larry Doby
                      129.9 John Beckwith
                      129.8 Dave Barnhill overestimated?
                      129.1 Bill Bytd
                      128.9 Silvio Garcia mostly Cuba
                      128.9 Bus Clarkson 3 yrs MS
                      127.5 Andy Cooper seems high to me
                      125.9 Ray Brown
                      125.9 Don Newcombe age 20 estimate used
                      125.8 Minnie Minoso
                      125.6 Mule Suttles
                      124.2 Bunny Serrell Eric mildly surprised by this one, some leeway
                      123.3 Julian Castillo early Cuba
                      121.7 Juan Padron
                      119.5 Conrado Marrero mlb play not in HOF neighborhood
                      118.7 Bill Pettus
                      113.6 Monte Irvin
                      113.4 Pelayo Chacon middle of gray area, deadball ss
                      113.0 Rev Cannady middle of gray area
                      111.2 Walter Ball
                      110.9 Carlos Royer cuba pre 1900
                      110.7 Spottswood Poles
                      110.5 Sam Jethroe
                      110.4 Webster McDonald middle of gray area
                      110.2 Cool Papa Bell
                      110.1 John Donaldson
                      109.7 Bill Monroe little low in gray area in deadball era
                      109.2 Reuben Curry
                      109.0 Pat Patterson
                      107.8 Dave Brown
                      107.1 Jim Gilliam
                      106.3 William Bell
                      104.5 George Tubby Scales managing probably best bet
                      104.0 Bobby Avila
                      103.0 Leroy Matlock missing early years
                      102.5 Leon Day
                      101.5 Artie Wilson
                      101.2 Luke Easter 4 yrs ww ii
                      99.4 Willard Brown seems too low to me
                      75.9 Judy Johnson
                      Last edited by jalbright; 09-03-2018, 02:13 PM.
                      Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                      Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                      A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Thanks for sharing Jim, I prefer your methods to the crude presentation I made in an earlier post, but I wanted to get something out in summary form to the audience here.

                        If we take your ratings and repopulate the HOF, the cutoff is between Beckwith and Barnhill.

                        Should the Hall open it's doors to a few more Negro Leaguers since these guys are at the 130 level?
                        Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
                        http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Thanks, Jar.

                          I would put several more of those above 125 in, to be sure, though I think I want to see some more research on some with those scores, like Marvin Williams. I think most of the guys below 125 need a very long career(Cool Papa) or major league excellent performance (Irvin) to make them cases we can sell. Rev Cannady might be a legitimate borderline candidate--but with the limitations we face in the data, how can we possibly expect to sell a guy like that? If he's overestimated by a few hairs, his case collapses like a house of cards in a windstorm. Besides. we want to get the best we've missed first, so we want to start near the top of that list.

                          I wouldn't go lower than Padron, and I'm not confident about Eric's conversion figures for Cubans. The high ranking for Marrero given his MLB performance is an example of my concern about that issue. If you look at my comments at guys above Padron, you'll see my concerns. The only one without a comment above Padron I'm not fully sold on is Byrd, and that may be mainly because he's fairly new to my radar.

                          On another note, I finally have been able to join BBTF, so it will be much easier to monitor Dr. Chaleeko now.
                          Last edited by jalbright; 09-03-2018, 05:55 PM.
                          Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                          Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                          A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by jalbright View Post
                            Thanks, Jar.

                            I would put several more of those above 125 in, to be sure, though I think I want to see some more research on some with those scores, like Marvin Williams. I think most of the guys below 125 need a very long career(Cool Papa) or major league excellent performance (Irvin) to make them cases we can sell. Rev Cannady might be a legitimate borderline candidate--but with the limitations we face in the data, how can we possibly expect to sell a guy like that? If he's overestimated by a few hairs, his case collapses like a house of cards in a windstorm. Besides. we want to get the best we've missed first, so we want to start near the top of that list.

                            I wouldn't go lower than Padron, and I'm not confident about Eric's conversion figures for Cubans. The high ranking for Marrero given his MLB performance is an example of my concern about that issue. If you look at my comments at guys above Padron, you'll see my concerns. The only one without a comment above Padron I'm not fully sold on is Byrd, and that may be mainly because he's fairly new to my radar.

                            On another note, I finally have been able to join BBTF, so it will be much easier to monitor Dr. Chaleeko now.
                            Fair points, and what a relief that you were able to sign up, the guys were pissed off that you were left waiting.
                            Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
                            http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by jalbright View Post
                              Thanks, Jar.

                              I would put several more of those above 125 in, to be sure, though I think I want to see some more research on some with those scores, like Marvin Williams. I think most of the guys below 125 need a very long career(Cool Papa) or major league excellent performance (Irvin) to make them cases we can sell. Rev Cannady might be a legitimate borderline candidate--but with the limitations we face in the data, how can we possibly expect to sell a guy like that? If he's overestimated by a few hairs, his case collapses like a house of cards in a windstorm. Besides. we want to get the best we've missed first, so we want to start near the top of that list.

                              I wouldn't go lower than Padron, and I'm not confident about Eric's conversion figures for Cubans. The high ranking for Marrero given his MLB performance is an example of my concern about that issue. If you look at my comments at guys above Padron, you'll see my concerns. The only one without a comment above Padron I'm not fully sold on is Byrd, and that may be mainly because he's fairly new to my radar.

                              On another note, I finally have been able to join BBTF, so it will be much easier to monitor Dr. Chaleeko now.
                              Jim, the notes you have on WWII, did you apply an estimated value credit for time missed?
                              For Luke Easter, how did you handle him, he was amazing for A REALLY long time in the minors, someone who is such a challenge to peg.

                              Thanks
                              Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
                              http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

                              Comment

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