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demise of hall of miller and eric/ dr chaleeko at bbtf

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  • #16
    Maybe I'm overlooking, but I don't see where you ran numbers for Hilton Smith? My rough cut estimate had him high in the gray area.
    Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
    http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post
      Maybe I'm overlooking, but I don't see where you ran numbers for Hilton Smith? My rough cut estimate had him high in the gray area.
      I don't know how he fell our of my spreadsheet, but he comes in at 126.6, just over the clearly in line.
      Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
      Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
      A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post

        Jim, the notes you have on WWII, did you apply an estimated value credit for time missed?
        For Luke Easter, how did you handle him, he was amazing for A REALLY long time in the minors, someone who is such a challenge to peg.

        Thanks
        For Easter, I relied on Eric Chaleeko's career MLE, which as I recall includes really good work in the minors.

        As for the wartime credit, I didn't put them in for these guys in a formal way. I think the best answer in most cases would be to take the career MLE for the player, divide it by the number of seasons used for the MLE, and multiply the result by the number of seasons missed to wartime. Thus, everyone who I'm talking about MS (military service) or WW II would be bumped up by around 3 WAR per season in genral
        Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
        Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
        A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by jalbright View Post

          For Easter, I relied on Eric Chaleeko's career MLE, which as I recall includes really good work in the minors.

          As for the wartime credit, I didn't put them in for these guys in a formal way. I think the best answer in most cases would be to take the career MLE for the player, divide it by the number of seasons used for the MLE, and multiply the result by the number of seasons missed to wartime. Thus, everyone who I'm talking about MS (military service) or WW II would be bumped up by around 3 WAR per season in genral
          Thanks for the add on Hilton Smith, and the MS credit is something that helps Bus Clarkson immensely.
          Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
          http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

          Comment


          • #20
            Did you plan to update your rating system in some fashion in your musings thread for the new data?
            https://www.baseball-fever.com/forum...Musings-v-2-0=

            Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
            http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

            Comment


            • #21
              I will, but it's a ways down on my to do list.
              Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
              Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
              A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

              Comment


              • #22
                Eric with some interpretations and rankings, some new info this week, starting at post 163 down:
                http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...scussion/P100/
                Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
                http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post
                  Eric with some interpretations and rankings, some new info this week, starting at post 163 down:
                  http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...scussion/P100/
                  Thanks. Good to see some more from Eric.
                  Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                  Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                  A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Eric posted his remaining position players.

                    He doesn't have enough info on Tetelo Vargas to tell us anything.

                    He has a partial on Coimbre, which is consistent with a close but not quite HOF case.

                    Chino Smith played at a HOF level in his seven seasons, but it's not enough for the HOF in a full career. He was easily on a pace before he died from cancer.

                    Most of them were not really great cases, and I didn't see many solid gray area guys. However, there are four who stand out as strong cases per his evaluations, at least in my book:

                    Code:
                     
                    WAR PA score player
                    67.1 9890 133.7 Burnis Wright
                    63.4 8530 131.1 Lazaro Salazar
                    64.6 7510 136.7 Heavy Johnson
                    74.5 10010 147.6 Hurley McNair
                    [

                    Burnis Wright, Heavy Johnson and Hurley McNair all look worth further examination. Lazaro Salazar might be a bit overrated as I believe this involves a lot of Cuban ball. I suspect he'd still be at least a legit gray area guy--and he had a great deal of success as a manager. I think this makes his case almost unassailable once the facts are known. At worst, he belongs as a contributor IMHO.
                    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Eric did the last of his pitchers, and two stand out--Roy Welmaker and Barney Brown.

                      Welmaker is someone I'll investigate more closely. Brown's a little above the midpoint of the gray area.

                      Code:
                       
                      WAR IP rating pitcher
                      57.8 3640 114.0 Barney Brown
                      60.4 2940 129.6 Roy Welmaker
                      Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                      Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                      A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Thanks for the updates Jim, too bad years aren't shown for Bill Cash, Charlie Blackwell, and maybe others, while short of HOF level, they have a chance to fall in the 100-110 range.

                        Off the cuff, would you have Cash and Blackwell in the ~105-110 range?
                        Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
                        http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post
                          Thanks for the updates Jim, too bad years aren't shown for Bill Cash, Charlie Blackwell, and maybe others, while short of HOF level, they have a chance to fall in the 100-110 range.

                          Off the cuff, would you have Cash and Blackwell in the ~105-110 range?
                          He did do others, including Cash and Blackwell. I skipped them as below 110 guys need something special, and these guys basically didn't even make the top 100 for the 2006 Negro League election. Cash is at 83.4 in my system, with only 36.3 WAR and 6000 PA. Blackwell is in that gray area at 107..8 Others over 100 in my system are Jules Thomas atm100.5, Harry Buckner at 105.9, Dick Witworth at 110.8 and Johnny Wright at 107.1. It's hard to see new data getting Cash in the right neighborhood, but the others over 100 might with good data that is currently missing. It's not easy to sell Bus Clarkson or some of the others over 120 right now, and I'd focus on them first.
                          Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                          Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                          A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Thanks for the feedback, Eric labeled Regino Garcia as a 111 with 100 as a cutoff for HOF level, but with the caveat that he's skeptical but that the dude can hit.

                            Where is Regino for you?
                            Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
                            http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post
                              Thanks for the feedback, Eric labeled Regino Garcia as a 111 with 100 as a cutoff for HOF level, but with the caveat that he's skeptical but that the dude can hit.

                              Where is Regino for you?
                              88 is what I have for him
                              Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                              Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                              A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                              Comment

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