Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Negro League Stats debunked

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #31
    Nice article Trosmok but I think writer fails to grasp that while both sets of players averages would probably go down it would be the Negro Leaguers marks that would go down the most. The Negro Leaguers would have to play a longer schedule and against on the average better pitching then they would in the Negro Leagues. Of the ten times he listed Negro Leaguers batted above .400 I would say at best it would only have happened twice if the leagues were integrated.

    Comment


    • #32
      It's all a matter of speculation, of course. But I've taken a look at Gibson and Paige in particular, and I believe that a) Gibson would've gotten his 450 HRs or more, and b) Paige would've reached 300 wins, in the majors.

      There is a big variable for each; first, Gibson may not have had the mentality to shine in a racist MLB year-in, year-out, as he may have been severely mentally scarred... second, Paige may have landed on a terrible team, making wins less accessible.

      Then, on top of the speculation, it comes down to a matter of opinion where those extrapolated stats would fit in MLB history. I don't think it's that big a deal, actually... the most important thing is that these people are recognized in the HOF as having been there, and great at what they did.

      My line of reasoning is with RMB: when baseball became integrated, the best players in the game included blacks very quickly. Therefore I have no doubt the greatest NLers of yester-year would be great MLBers, given a fair environment to play in.
      http://gifrific.com/wp-content/uploa...-showalter.gif

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by trosmok
        Gibson hit seventy five home runs in one season, and led the Negro Leagues in that category for ten straight years, and you can look it up!
        .
        As of this time you will not find all the box scores for that season, complete with every at bat and every home run that Josh Gibson hit in that supposed 75 home run season. If you have it, if it can be displayed ( every box score) show us or let us know where we can view it.

        I for one realize the greatness of this man and I am sure he would more than hold his own in MLB if given his chance. Lets not be ruled by emotion or pity and substitute our feelings in place of actual statistics.

        At this time, no where will you find any reliable stats that credit Gibson with near 900+ home runs. No one should attempt to diminish Josh or any of the great black players who were denied their chance but the simple fact is that we have at this time not enough stats to judge them with accuracy. That there were great black players, we know that, how great we don't know.

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by trosmok
          ? To artfully contradict what you seem to hope to find, namely that the records of Negro Leaguers are all overly inflated, check out this little gem from the guru:
          ]
          Gem, what gem. Again can you or anyone show us the daily box scores, the total hits. Where are they?

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by SHOELESSJOE3
            At this time, no where will you find any reliable stats that credit Gibson with near 900+ home runs. No one should attempt to diminish Josh or any of the great black players who were denied their chance but the simple fact is that we have at this time not enough stats to judge them with accuracy. That there were great black players, we know that, how great we don't know.
            No, you won't find reliable daily stats that credit Gibson with 900+ HR.

            But, as to the original point of this thread, saying that a statistical history research has been done, and that shows that Gibson hit only 250ish... that's obviously short sighted. Just as you say here, stats weren't kept for all games of all seasons when Negro Leaguers played. So just because some researchers pored through every available daily box score and came up with a certain number doesn't mean that the actual number isn't far, far more. There's lots of games that don't show up in box scores.
            "Simply put, the passion, interest and tradition surrounding baseball in New York is unmatched."

            Sean McAdam, ESPN.com

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by J W
              It's all a matter of speculation, of course. But I've taken a look at Gibson and Paige in particular, and I believe that a) Gibson would've gotten his 450 HRs or more, and b) Paige would've reached 300 wins, in the majors.

              There is a big variable for each; first, Gibson may not have had the mentality to shine in a racist MLB year-in, year-out, as he may have been severely mentally scarred... second, Paige may have landed on a terrible team, making wins less accessible.
              Not unreasonable totals, maybe high-ish, maybe not. But, if Gibson & Paige are in MLB, then MLB's desgregated, no? So it's not a "racist MLB" anymore - no more so than everyday life back then, anyhow. And maybe Paige would've transcended a bad team, as Walter Johnson & Grover Alexander did.

              Comment


              • #37
                While there were some great hitters in black baseball I find batting averages of .563-.498-484, hard to swallow, not against competent pitching. Add to that no one has yet to display daily box scores that even verify those batting averages.

                Black star Buck O'Neil himself stated while black hitters compared to white MLB hitters, black pitching, day to day was not on the same level as white MLB. Teams would "borrow" pitchers from another team. On any given day a second baseman or outfielder could be used as a starting pitcher, lean pitching staffs in black baseball.


                Here are just a small number of stats, blacks playing in Negro leagues compared to how they performed in MLB.

                This first stat may be skewed because of the far greater number of at bats in MLB. These totals are for the same 19 hitters in the Negro Leagues and MLB.

                -------------------At bats--------Home run average-------Batting average
                Negro Leagues-----7,592---------------13-------------------.332
                MLB--------------51,492---------------18-------------------.281

                Two of the hitters that had a comparable number of at bats in black and MLB.

                Sam Jethroe Black ball-----AB. 1331-----HRs 20-----BA. .340
                Sam Jethroe MLB----------AB. 1763-----HRs 49-----Ba. .261


                Bob Boyd Black ball-------AB. 1129------HRs 11----BA. .362
                Bob Boyd MLB------------AB. 1936------HRs 19----BA. .293

                Again, only a small sample and other factors, difference in age while in the Negro leagues and MLB. These stats do not tell the whole story. I welcome others opinions that may find some faults with the above. Looking for answers myself.

                In some other stats most of the black hitters had a higher batting average in the Negro leagues than they did in minor league baseball.

                My point, not saying that the the lower level of day to day pitching in the Negro leagues " made" some black hitters great but the fact is they hit for lower averages in MLB and many hit for lower averages in the minor leagues.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Let's take a look at MVPs. MLB wasn't really integrated in 1951, but what percentage of blacks got MVPs from 1951 to the early 60s, compared to how many were allowed to play?
                  Mythical SF Chronicle scouting report: "That Jeff runs like a deer. Unfortunately, he also hits AND throws like one." I am Venus DeMilo - NO ARM! I can play like a big leaguer, I can field like Luzinski, run like Lombardi. The secret to managing is keeping the ones who hate you away from the undecided ones. I am a triumph of quantity over quality. I'm almost useful, every village needs an idiot.
                  Good traders: MadHatter(2), BoofBonser26, StormSurge

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Imapotato
                    From a reliable source...who read it on the Denver Post, it seems baseball historians are delving into finding all stats associated with the myths of the Negro Leagues.

                    And this will surely cause an eyebrow raise amongst most of you, especially Mr. Burgess

                    Josh Gibson, was found that he DID hit 4 HRs in a game, but his 'career' Hrs? Just 200 folks

                    Satchel Paige, Mr. Mystique...only 126 wins.
                    I had no idea Al Campanis wrote for the Denver Post
                    Mythical SF Chronicle scouting report: "That Jeff runs like a deer. Unfortunately, he also hits AND throws like one." I am Venus DeMilo - NO ARM! I can play like a big leaguer, I can field like Luzinski, run like Lombardi. The secret to managing is keeping the ones who hate you away from the undecided ones. I am a triumph of quantity over quality. I'm almost useful, every village needs an idiot.
                    Good traders: MadHatter(2), BoofBonser26, StormSurge

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Obviously, that's true. Nobody's saying that Josh Gibson would have hit over .400 with 50+ HR every year in MLB, just because he did it in the Negro Leagues. I think something along the order of 35 HR, .340 would be more accurate. Still making him one of the best players of all time.
                      "Simply put, the passion, interest and tradition surrounding baseball in New York is unmatched."

                      Sean McAdam, ESPN.com

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by RuthMayBond
                        Let's take a look at MVPs. MLB wasn't really integrated in 1951, but what percentage of blacks got MVPs from 1951 to the early 60s, compared to how many were allowed to play?
                        Not sure what the point being made here. For sure most would agree blacks, in particular those not given their chance were the equal of some white players.

                        I just don't agree with those numbers thrown out by others, numbers that can't be verified. How can anyone come up with an accurate account, a season batting average or cumulative stats when dozens of box scores were never recorded, never in print even in many black newspapers.

                        I get the impression that some, not you think that those who disagree with them are not willing to give the great black players their due. Not so, only saying that their is no accurate account that we can judge them by.

                        Gibson for one. On my last trip to the library I saw these numbers in different books for Gibson's lifetime batting average, .358, 372, .384, his career home runs, 844, 892 and 962. That tells us something right there, which one is the correct number. Then I scanned some books that showed Gibson's career home run totals in a column, year by year and they were in the neighborhood of 200+. As I stated earlier, I'm sure he hit many more than tha 200+, how many we don't know. I've also seen articles that claim home some of his totals were from exhibition games.

                        I don't see the problem here, whats is wrong with the belief that totals from black baseball are not accurate, seems to rub some the wrong way. That belief does nothing to take away the fact that some of the best ball players years ago were black and would have been great in MLB if given their chance.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Here's what we know about Gibson. He was regarded as the greatest power hitter in Negro league history. He was the greatest black power hitter prior to 1947. What are the chances that the 1950s produced several black players who were better than Gibson. I would say slim to none. We may not have the stats to prove it, but logically we can assume that Gibson was in the same neighborhood with Aaron and Mays.
                          "The numbers are what brought me here; as it appears they brought you."
                          - Danielle Rousseau

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by mac195
                            Here's what we know about Gibson. He was regarded as the greatest power hitter in Negro league history. He was the greatest black power hitter prior to 1947. What are the chances that the 1950s produced several black players who were better than Gibson. I would say slim to none. We may not have the stats to prove it, but logically we can assume that Gibson was in the same neighborhood with Aaron and Mays.
                            How do we know what Hank might have done if he were in black baseball hitting against black pitchers who were not on the same level as those who Hank faced in MLB. If Hank could put up the numbers he did against MLB pitchers would it be far fetched to assume he would have done much better against the lean pitchung staffs in the Negro leagues.

                            Don't jump the gun here. I am not here to say that white pitchers were superior to black pitchers in the negro leagues but there was no money in black baseball way back then. No incentive, not much of a talent pool to draw from to fill pitching rosters with a good number of quality pitchers.

                            Look at the majority of blacks entering baseball in the 1950s-1960s very small percentage were pitchers, mostly offensive players, hitters.

                            It's a sad tale, unfortunate but we can't just say what Gibson would have done in MLB. That he would have been great, I agree but lets not toss around numbers, projections. He never played MLB, it never happened, impossible to say he would have hit so many home runs or would have batted .340 or .350. It never took place, impossible to know.

                            BTW, still waiting for anyone to post that 962 home run total and prove it with a reliable source, box scores, year by year totals. I'm not cold, not insensitive to the injustice to the black players of long ago, just stating facts.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              [[email protected]]Baseball Analysis John Holway / Negro Leagues

                              HATS OFF TO BILL JAMES' NEGRO LEAGUES 100-BEST LIST

                              By John B Holway

                              .

                              I feel confident that if Josh had played in the white majors, both he and his rival, Mule Suttles (#43 on James' list) would have demolished Babe Ruth's 60-homer mark within a decade after Babe set it. If Roger Maris could do, why couldn't they? And don't forget: Josh played in Pittsburgh and Washington, where the leftfield foul lines were 350 and 408 feet respectively, compared to 257 feet and 296 for Babe's targets in New York. Put Josh in Fenway, Ebbetts, or the Polo Grounds, and how many would he have hit? Lifetime, Josh hit 42 homers per 550 at bats, the average for white big league kings. Babe averaged 48, Hank Aaron 30.
                              One might even argue that if Babe had faced the best black pitchers of his day, such as Satchel Paige, Bullet Joe Rogan (q.v.), Bill Foster et al, he would have hit a lot less than 60 homers. And if Suttles had been in the American League, Ruth might not even have been the league home run leader. In Cuba Mule hit one bomb a measured 598 feet.


                              Where does Gibson rate on the all-time list? Let's put it this way: Willie Mays (#4) averaged 33 homers per 550 and batted .302, about 50 points lower than Josh.

                              You might want Willie on defense, but he isn't in Josh's league at the bat.

                              Bill Burgess> Quote

                              Pardon the partial deletion Bill......but I have to zero in on what remains.

                              I really don't see how you can project or suppose that Gibson or Stearns would have demolished or even matched Ruth's 60, possible but your words seem to convey that it was quite probable. Again I stress the point that negro league pitching was not on the level as MLB, not just my thoughts but also black star Buck O'Neil. Just because an average hitter like Maris passed Ruth you can't just assume that better negro league stars would have hit 60+. For that matter there were a good number of black hitters, sluggers in MLB that never hit 60, Mays, Aaron, McCovey and more, not until the 1990s with the lower strike zone and livelier ball was it accomplished a number of times.

                              We've been down this road before with the short RF lines at the Polo Grounds and Yankee Stadium. I posted some numbers more than one time, on this board and some other boards in regards to Ruth at the Polo grounds in 1921. Ruth hit 59 at the Polo Grounds in 1921 27 on the road and 32 at the Polo Grounds. I gathered my information from the most accurate source, the N.Y.Times archives. When it's said Ruth hit 32 at the Polo Grounds it's assumed that he feasted on that RF line. The real story is told at the Times archives, I checked every one of those 32 HRs hit at the Polo Grounds. Only 4 were hit into the lower RF stands and the Times describes two of them as deep. The other 28 were a combination, two into dead center, four over the roof in right and right center, two into the upper deck in LF and all the rest into right center field where the Polo Grounds gets very deep, very fast away from that line.

                              Yankee Stadium, sure Ruth poked some down the line, but does that mean they just made the first few rows of seats. What about the rest of the park on the right side away from thar 296......deep right center 429... dead center 487 and just to the left of dead center 493. I think we could assume that Ruth had to lose a number in that vast space. Yankee Stadium over all was not a home run paradise, there is more to it than that RF line. Ruth hit as many on the road as he did in N.Y.

                              I think the fact that Ruth hit monster tape measure jobs in all parks shows he did not hit many "cheapies." He also hit one over the roof at Comiskey and a tired old Babe Ruth in 1935 was the first to hit one over the roof at Forbes Field, his last number 714.

                              I trust you put the numbers 42 home runs in every 550 at bats for Gibson in good faith but I have yet to see any record that shows Gibson's at bats and home runs over a whole career. Not fair to Mays who batted against MLB pitching and compare his batting average to Gibson's. Besides that I have seen at least 4 different figures for Gibson's career average. The bottom line, though no fault of his own Gibson faced pitching that most agree, day to day was not on the level of MLB.

                              I close again with that same line, simple logic, no way to know how Josh would have done in MLB, it never took place, how do we know.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Ichiro's line in Japan was .353/.421/.522. In America even after his year last year his line is .339/.384/443. His batting average is still there but he has almost no power. Basically all he is right now is a singles hitter. He doesn't walk and he doesn't get extra base hits. Before coming to America Ichiro hit a homer once out of every 31 at bats. Since coming over he hits a homer once out of every 74 at bats.

                                Japanese Stadiums have historically smaller then stadiums in America. If Oh had come over in the 60's he would have had to play at the height of the pitchers era in parks that were not favorable to home run hitting.
                                cubbieinexile
                                The Real McCoy
                                Last edited by cubbieinexile; 12-13-2004, 10:24 PM.

                                Comment

                                Ad Widget

                                Collapse
                                Working...
                                X