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Jeff Francoeur: Are the Braves better off without him?

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  • Jeff Francoeur: Are the Braves better off without him?

    I forget who it was that suggested that Francoeur be traded to Tampa Bay as part of a package for Carl Crawford. Trading him for Baldelli seems like a good idea right now.

    Francoeur's 2006 was catastrophically bad. How bad, you say? Well, he's an outfielder. This is his line from last season:

    .260/.293/.449

    Here's the league average for 2006:

    .269/.339/.436

    He's an outfielder. With an OBP 47 points below the league average. To catch up to that last season, he would have had to have 31 more walks!

    This means two things, essentially, two things that will never be done:
    1. He has to be hit 7th or 8th so that the damage he causes to the offense is minimal.
    2. According to his -1.0 VORP, any Richmond outfielder could have stepped in and done a better job.

    We'd better hope he improves, otherwise it would probably be best for us to trade him.
    46 wins to match last year's total

  • #2
    True his VORP was pretty terrible last season and he didn't have a walk in his first 20 something games but that's not a reason to write him off so quickly.

    Statistic-wise, his VORP indicates and Richmond outfielder could have competent enough to replace him and offer the same production.

    But, that's statistically.

    Calling a player up because of a stat does not mean he will be doing as good as Francoeur, I wouldn't overestimate VORP if I were you, it's a good guiding stat, emphasis on guiding but it doesn't tell you the actual story, his OBP, which I agree with you on, is catastrophic.

    As I said, he didn't walk in his first 20 something games, if he had done so, his OBP would be higher.

    And you see, the real problem with Francoeur is his walks, he needs to develop a better knowledge of the strike zone.

    In the end, at a glance, his 2006 was pretty good considering his sophomore slump.

    Francoeur will come along soon, give him some time.
    Cristobal

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by wilkerson_rulz-06
      True his VORP was pretty terrible last season and he didn't have a walk in his first 20 something games but that's not a reason to write him off so quickly.

      Statistic-wise, his VORP indicates and Richmond outfielder could have competent enough to replace him and offer the same production.

      But, that's statistically.

      Calling a player up because of a stat does not mean he will be doing as good as Francoeur, I wouldn't overestimate VORP if I were you, it's a good guiding stat, emphasis on guiding but it doesn't tell you the actual story, his OBP, which I agree with you on, is catastrophic.

      As I said, he didn't walk in his first 20 something games, if he had done so, his OBP would be higher.

      And you see, the real problem with Francoeur is his walks, he needs to develop a better knowledge of the strike zone.

      In the end, at a glance, his 2006 was pretty good considering his sophomore slump.

      Francoeur will come along soon, give him some time.
      I was just saying he was REALLY bad in 2006 and I REALLY hope he has the capacity to improve. All I want is a league-average .330 OBP right now. I don't think that's too much to ask.
      46 wins to match last year's total

      Comment


      • #4
        his season was not bad at all. he'a guy in his FIRST full year of major league baseball. he hit what, 29 hr's and over 100 rbi's. Most guys in their first full year would kill to have those numbers. you can;t jump ship right now. baldelli has already lost a lot of time becuase of injuries, and that's something francoeur has never had to deal with. yeas, his VORP, and opb, and avg. weren't that good, but give him some damn time to develop
        Stay Away From Downed Power Lines.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Tarheelfan44
          his season was not bad at all. he'a guy in his FIRST full year of major league baseball. he hit what, 29 hr's and over 100 rbi's. Most guys in their first full year would kill to have those numbers. you can;t jump ship right now. baldelli has already lost a lot of time becuase of injuries, and that's something francoeur has never had to deal with. yeas, his VORP, and opb, and avg. weren't that good, but give him some damn time to develop
          I don't care if he was 22. His season was bad. When you're not a leadoff hitter and you nearly lead the league in outs, you're not very good.

          Listen, I'm hoping he improves too. He has to. He's the Braves' right fielder for keeps now. All I ask out of him at most is a .330 OBP. Hell, I'll even settle for .320. But for Jeff, that's going to require that he be less aggressive and make an attempt to recognize balls that are not going to be strikes. If he even pulls a Julio Franco and takes the first pitch all the time, that would cut down on some of his outs.
          46 wins to match last year's total

          Comment


          • #6
            I'll take his numbers from last season again and again and again.
            Baseball Journeyman

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            • #7
              Originally posted by SamtheBravesFan
              When you're not a leadoff hitter and you nearly lead the league in outs, you're not very good.
              Ok explain this please.
              Baseball Journeyman

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by TheJourneyman
                I'll take his numbers from last season again and again and again.
                Um, why? He had an 89 OPS+, thats absolutely terrible from his position. Thats actually pretty bad from any position.
                Originally posted by Domenic
                The Yankees should see if Yogi Berra can still get behind the plate - he has ten World Series rings... he must be worth forty or fifty million a season.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Green Light/Red Light

                  Originally posted by SamtheBravesFan
                  If he even pulls a Julio Franco and takes the first pitch all the time, that would cut down on some of his outs.
                  The scouting report on Frenchy is easy as far as what he normally does against the first pitch. Pitchers have the advantage knowing what he will likely do, that is swing, so they have the advantage.

                  If anyone knows, it would be interesting to look at his first-swing stats. Such as...

                  How many hits?
                  How many HRs?
                  How many outs (pop-outs/ground-outs)?
                  How many times does he get ahead/behind in the count and what happend the entire AB.

                  The OBP is pretty low, but he did hit 29 HRs and drove in 103 RBIs last year. Hopefully he will learn some plate discipline and recognize pitches in the strike zone and not just swing at anything. He's an exciting player and a heck of an athlete. What an arm. Of all our new young players, he's my favorite.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by atlbravesfan
                    The scouting report on Frenchy is easy as far as what he normally does against the first pitch. Pitchers have the advantage knowing what he will likely do, that is swing, so they have the advantage.

                    If anyone knows, it would be interesting to look at his first-swing stats. Such as...

                    How many hits?
                    How many HRs?
                    How many outs (pop-outs/ground-outs)?
                    How many times does he get ahead/behind in the count and what happend the entire AB.

                    The OBP is pretty low, but he did hit 29 HRs and drove in 103 RBIs last year. Hopefully he will learn some plate discipline and recognize pitches in the strike zone and not just swing at anything. He's an exciting player and a heck of an athlete. What an arm. Of all our new young players, he's my favorite.
                    I KNOW he hit 29 home runs. That's good that he can drive pitches like that. But all 103 RBIs are good for is fantasy leagues. The reason he had that many is beacause he had 71 opportunities to get them over the season. With as many people getting on base as they did, like Renteria and the Jones boys and McCann, of course Frenchy's probably going to have more than 100 RBIs. Runs batted in are almost completely circumstantial.

                    Here is the chart of the top 10 players in outs made in the NL:

                    Outs
                    Juan Pierre (CHC) - 532
                    Jimmy Rollins (PHI) - 521
                    Jeff Francoeur (ATL) - 507
                    Alfonso Soriano (WSN) - 493
                    Rafael Furcal (LAD) - 486
                    Felipe Lopez (CIN/WAS) - 484
                    Pedro Feliz (SFG) - 482
                    Jose Reyes (NYM) - 478
                    Hanley Ramirez (FLA) - 477
                    Chase Utley (PHI) - 472

                    7 of these 10 hitters are leadoff hitters. Utley hits second. Lopez hit first and second. Feliz hit eighth. Francoeur hit fifth and sixth. This is why Francoeur's 2006 season is bad.
                    46 wins to match last year's total

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Westlake
                      Um, why? He had an 89 OPS+, thats absolutely terrible from his position. Thats actually pretty bad from any position.
                      People look too much to specific stats. If you want to you can look up what ANYONE does bad and make it for him to have a bad season. I'll take his run production any day of the week. He is young and will improve. People tend to jump off the deep end too quickly around here. How many people have said LaRoche is lazy all because of the mother's day incident. Look at the big picture.

                      And as for making outs. I still see nothing with it. Look at this list. There are some pretty good hitters with more "outs" than Frenchy. Hell Mike Young made more than him last year. Doesn't hit 1st and is a pretty damn good hitter. Because he made 500+ outs would you not want him on your team?

                      http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hiouts2.shtml


                      Like I said I'll take his 83 runs/103 rbi/24 doubles/29 hrs and even his .260 avg. Not to mention his 162 GP. Oh and not to mention he is 22. He isn't even in the prime of his career yet and plays a great RF.

                      Kind of reminds me of a former Braves RF and how he started. At age 22 and in his first full year he hit .226 with a .284 OBP. And this guy went on to be one of the best RFs of his time and for the Braves.

                      So I'll say it again. I'll take his numbers year in year out.
                      Baseball Journeyman

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by SamtheBravesFan
                        Trading him for Baldelli seems like a good idea right now.
                        you would lose a lot of production by putting baldelli in RF over Frenchy. The only thing that would accomplish is a higher OBP but you suffer in HR, RBI. Avg isn't much different nor is SLG and you have a player who doesn't play every game for you so you are having to fill in with someone for 30 games a year. I don't see how that makes much sense.

                        Now I am not against adding Baldelli but not in exchange for Frenchy. If he could take over in CF if/when Andruw leaves that wouldn't be bad. Its going to be hard to add someone that will put up the numbers Andruw does every year.
                        Baseball Journeyman

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by TheJourneyman
                          People look too much to specific stats. If you want to you can look up what ANYONE does bad and make it for him to have a bad season. I'll take his run production any day of the week. He is young and will improve. People tend to jump off the deep end too quickly around here. How many people have said LaRoche is lazy all because of the mother's day incident. Look at the big picture
                          His run production is terrible. The only reason he had over a 100 RBI was because he was hitting behind very good hitters.

                          He created 83 runs in 686 plate appearances.

                          Out of 60 starting corner outfielders last year, Francoeur was a better run producer than 10 of them. Those players were....

                          Ryan Langerhans, Corey Patterson, Scott Podsednik, Reggie Sanders, Lew Ford, Cliff Floyd, Damon Hollins, Jeromy Burnitz, Brad Wilkerson, Jose Guillen.

                          Here are some of the players that were better than him at producing runs...

                          Xavier Nady, Jacque Jones, Dave Roberts, Brian Giles, Mark DeRosa, Frank Catalonatto.

                          Obviously, it doesn't take much. So out of 60, Francoeur ranked 49th.

                          This isn't to say the Braves should give up on him, he still has a lot of upside if he can learn to take pitches... But I remember having this conversation with a friend of mine that works in major league baseball -- I was raving about how good Francoeur was in '05, and he gauranteed me that Francouer would be terrible in '06 because of his inability to take walks and pitchers realizing this. He couldn't have been more right.
                          Last edited by Westlake; 01-30-2007, 10:25 PM.
                          Originally posted by Domenic
                          The Yankees should see if Yogi Berra can still get behind the plate - he has ten World Series rings... he must be worth forty or fifty million a season.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Good topic. I was (and still am) convinced that 103 RBI's and 29 homers is something I want from a player on my team. Yet, his OBP is horrible.

                            It's no secret that Frenchy doesn't walk very often. I wish I could find an article that I read during the 2006 season. It discussed Giles' and Frenchy's swings. It showed Giles had slightly lowered his hips during his swing which caused a lot of popups. It also showed how Francouer is pretty much comitted to swing before the ball gets there.

                            Now perhaps Pendleton can work with Jeff and change his approach a bit, so it's actually possible for him to pull back and check his swing.

                            Since the season has not started, I'm not much of a stat whore for the Braves at the moment. Come April, that will change. Yeah, I'm a nerd. But my point is, I can't make a stat-enforced argument right now; all I can do is go on past research and memory.

                            Let's not forget that Francoeur either topped the league or was undoubtedly top five in 2-out hits. That's clutch. But going on memory I can remember him (and McCann hitting into a double play) going down with the bases loaded in Philly. I also remember him beating the Nationals with a walkoff grandslam in May. (CLICK HERE to see it).

                            He's also 22 years old. That really is important and relevant. After trading LaRoche, I'd be very hesitant about getting rid of Frenchy since he's young and talented.

                            That's my two cents, and I'm not going to argue about it. I'm just here to contribute my thoughts.
                            Last edited by Tomahawk Dynasty; 01-30-2007, 10:42 PM.
                            1914 Boston Braves
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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by TheJourneyman
                              you would lose a lot of production by putting baldelli in RF over Frenchy. The only thing that would accomplish is a higher OBP but you suffer in HR, RBI. Avg isn't much different nor is SLG and you have a player who doesn't play every game for you so you are having to fill in with someone for 30 games a year. I don't see how that makes much sense.

                              Now I am not against adding Baldelli but not in exchange for Frenchy. If he could take over in CF if/when Andruw leaves that wouldn't be bad. Its going to be hard to add someone that will put up the numbers Andruw does every year.
                              At the time I made this topic, I was angry. I still think that his 2006 was subpar. But of course, that doesn't mean that 2007 will be subpar as well. I really want him to improve. I don't want to groan when he makes first-pitch outs. I don't want to keep writing off his at-bats.

                              Since 2006 is all we have to go on about what he could do, I'm really wondering if he can change all that. That's what it boils down to:

                              1. I want him to cut down his swinging right out of the gate, because he seems to make an uncanny amount of first-pitch outs.
                              2. I want him to get a feel of what the strike zone is and not swing at so many obvious balls; that could help his walk total by making the pitcher work for the outs instead of Frenchy practically giving it to him.

                              If Frenchy is more patient at the plate (60 walk patient at least), that could go a long way to help replace what Adam LaRoche probably would do.
                              46 wins to match last year's total

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