Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Does Chipper Have A Shot At 500???

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Does Chipper Have A Shot At 500???

    As of today he stands at 400 home runs. Although injury has plagued him the past 4 years he averaged 26 homers. If he can do that again for another 4 years then he'll be good to go. His main concern is if injury will be a big problem in the future. (BTW, i predict around 33-37 this year)
    18
    Yes
    83.33%
    15
    No
    16.67%
    3

    The poll is expired.

    Rest in Peace Jose Fernandez (1992-2016)

  • #2
    I would like to see that happen, but it will only go as far as Chipper and the nagging injuries will go.
    My collection of autographs: TTM Autos

    Comment


    • #3
      With Chipper's injury my guess is he will come up a little short. That won't stop him from making the HoF.
      Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball

      Comment


      • #4
        yea, i think he has a pretty good shot at 500. Would be nice to see him get 3000 hits to (currently 2206), but I think he will come up short in that. Even if he gets neither, he is def. a first ballot HOF.
        Last edited by chip&smoltz95; 06-06-2008, 09:24 AM.

        Comment


        • #5
          If Chipper hits 35 bombs this year, that would put him at 421. That would put him 79 short of 500. I think he can do it. I mean if he were to only play 3 more years after this, (I hope he plays more though), he would need to average around 27 to get 81. You cannot tell me that is impossible! He can do it and I think he will! I would really love to see him hit 500 and have 3000 hits as well! But I do think that 500 bombs are more realistic than 3000 hits, but we'll see!
          "I never thought home runs were all that exciting. I still think the triple is the most exciting thing in baseball. To me, a triple is like a guy taking the ball on his 1-yard line and running 99 yards for a touchdown." -Hank Aaron

          Comment


          • #6
            Chipper came into this year needing 114 home runs for 500.
            That is an average of:
            38 over 3 years
            29 over 4 years
            23 over 5 years
            20 over 6 years

            I don't see him averaging 38 home runs, so he will need to play 3 years after this one. Considering the way he is playing this year, he has a very realistic shot at 500 sometime in 2011 or 2012.

            Af for 3000 hits, he came into the season needing 883.
            That is an average of:
            221 over 4 years
            176 over 5 years
            147 over 6 years

            It is clear that he does not have much room for error here. He almost has to get 176+ this year. Of course, he is well on pace for that. The odds are against him getting 3000, but it is still a possibility.
            "I never saw anyone like Ty Cobb. No one even close to him. He was the greatest all time ballplayer. That guy was superhuman, amazing."
            -Casey Stengel

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by cbenson5 View Post
              Chipper came into this year needing 114 home runs for 500.
              That is an average of:
              38 over 3 years
              29 over 4 years
              23 over 5 years
              20 over 6 years

              I don't see him averaging 38 home runs, so he will need to play 3 years after this one. Considering the way he is playing this year, he has a very realistic shot at 500 sometime in 2011 or 2012.

              He doesn't have to average 38 HR a year. If he hits 35 this year, which I think he can do, especially with Tex behind him. He only will have to average 27 a year after that for 3 years to have 81, and all he would need after 35 this year would be 79, so he would be clear to go 27 a year for 3 years. I def think he can do that, especially since he averaged 26 during his injury years.
              "I never thought home runs were all that exciting. I still think the triple is the most exciting thing in baseball. To me, a triple is like a guy taking the ball on his 1-yard line and running 99 yards for a touchdown." -Hank Aaron

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by BravesFanForever View Post
                He doesn't have to average 38 HR a year. If he hits 35 this year, which I think he can do, especially with Tex behind him. He only will have to average 27 a year after that for 3 years to have 81, and all he would need after 35 this year would be 79, so he would be clear to go 27 a year for 3 years. I def think he can do that, especially since he averaged 26 during his injury years.
                Those are some very good points. I think he will get to 500 unless his constant injuries catch up to him and he misses a lot of time. But I see him played 4 or 5 more years. He should get to 500 with the production he has.
                I collect any and all Braves cards and memorabilia. I also collect baseballs and Pre-1060's Topps cards.
                Trusted traders - Rpollard86, duckydps, Mike D., Rockhound, Drillbit

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by BravesFanForever View Post
                  He doesn't have to average 38 HR a year.
                  That was what he had to average coming into this year.
                  "I never saw anyone like Ty Cobb. No one even close to him. He was the greatest all time ballplayer. That guy was superhuman, amazing."
                  -Casey Stengel

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Barring a power-sapping chronic injury like Don Mattingly had, he's on a good pace. He's planning to play until 40 and beyond.

                    I can remember similar skepticism about any number of players and their next big numerical goals. Most achieved them, anyway. We can crunch numbers all we want but you can't quantify pride and desire.
                    3 6 10 21 29 31 35 41 42 44 47

                    "All of which makes perfect sense on paper, unless you have actually at any time in your life watched baseball being played." - The Commissioner

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      this may be a bit of an unrelated question, but in this day and age (steriods), what do you guys think is the bigger accomplishment to have 3000 hits or 500 homers? I don't the stats on how many people have each, but I think I would pick 3000 hits, just cause you have to play so good for so long to get it.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I agree, I think 3000 hits is the better acomplishment because I feel it is much harder to do that.

                        I See what you were saying CBenson5, yeah then I would agree with you there, I probably couldn't see him going 38 a year either. But who knows? : )
                        "I never thought home runs were all that exciting. I still think the triple is the most exciting thing in baseball. To me, a triple is like a guy taking the ball on his 1-yard line and running 99 yards for a touchdown." -Hank Aaron

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          does he have a shot - yes.

                          can he do it - it remains to be seen but I hope so.

                          It is all about staying healthy.
                          Baseball Journeyman

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by BravesFanForever View Post
                            I See what you were saying CBenson5, yeah then I would agree with you there, I probably couldn't see him going 38 a year either. But who knows? : )
                            He certainly has a chance at 38 this year. But, to do it twice more would be quite an accomplishment. Only 7 men have hit 38+ home runs at age 37. Unfortunately, Bonds and Palmeiro did. Then you have Henry Aaron, Babe Ruth, Andres Galarrage, Hank Sauer, and Moises Alou. Only 5 men have hit 38 plus home runs at age 38. Unfortunately, Bonds and Palmeiro are there again. Other than that Darrell Evans, Frank Thomas, and Ted Williams are the only players to accomplish that feat. Then again Chipper is on pace for the greatest season ever by a 36 year old outside of Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth. I think pretty much anything is possible with him now. I mean he is getting on base over half of the time he steps up to the plate. Simply unbelievable.
                            Last edited by cbenson5; 06-07-2008, 12:29 AM.
                            "I never saw anyone like Ty Cobb. No one even close to him. He was the greatest all time ballplayer. That guy was superhuman, amazing."
                            -Casey Stengel

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Chipper has said he wants to play another 4 or 5 years, whether he stays at 3B or moves to 1B and he can maintain he has a legitimate shot at 500. You figure he'll get to 420 this year, so IF he can stay healthy and play to 40 yrs old he can get 500 if he hits 20 HR's over the next 4 years.
                              sigpic

                              Comment

                              Ad Widget

                              Collapse
                              Working...
                              X