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Does Chipper Have A Shot At 500???

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  • #16
    Well, let's have a looksy at his last 4 seasons and take a gander at this one.

    2004 - 30
    2005 - 21
    2006 - 26
    2007 - 29

    Total - 106 (Averaging 26.5 HRs a season)

    2008 - 15 (219 AB)

    I definitely think he hits 30 HR's this year (that's not really a stretch). That puts him at 416 HRs by the end of the season and his average homers for the last 5 years at 27.2 HRs per season.

    500-416=84 HRs 84/27.2 = 3.088 seasons

    That's gonna be tough. Chipper at 40 will probably be a cavalcade of injuries. The Braves fan in me wants to say "yes" but realism is making a strong argument of "no."
    1914 Boston Braves
    July 5th: 15 games back.
    October 13th: World Series Champs
    (Anything is possible)
    GO BRAVES!!!!!!!


    Click Here (It's all you need to get fired up about the Braves).

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    • #17
      Do people still think he'll make it to 500?

      Has he given any indication on how many more years he intends to play? What is his current contract status?
      ?

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      • #18
        Originally posted by MyDogSparty View Post
        Do people still think he'll make it to 500?

        Has he given any indication on how many more years he intends to play? What is his current contract status?
        It's going to be a bit of a longshot for Chipper to make it to 500 homers.

        Chipper said that if he had a season like 2009, he would consider retiring. He had a career-low in slugging percentage last year (.430), but his .388 OBP helped save him from having the first sub-.800 OPS season of his career.

        He has three $13 million years left on his contract, along with a $7 million club option.

        Jones has 426 homers right now. If he ends up playing through 2012, he's going to have to hit 25 homers a season. He hasn't hit 25 homers since the 2007 season, thanks to injuries. That doesn't mean he can't do it, but it seems like that would be hard to accomplish for him at this stage of his career.
        46 wins to match last year's total

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        • #19
          While it seems unlikely, I don't have a doubt in my mind that he can't do it.
          Rest in Peace Jose Fernandez (1992-2016)

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          • #20
            I think it will be very close. He is definatly slowing down. For the first time in his career in 2009 he fell short of the 20 homer mark. He has an avg. of 24 homers per season in the last 4 seasons. As of ST 2010 he needs 74, so it will be very close.

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