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The Ubiquitous Cubs season prediction

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  • The Ubiquitous Cubs season prediction

    Last year after the debacle that was Cubs pitching in spring training I swore I would wait until just before the season to do this. But I got an itchy trigger finger so I'll put my words out on the line early. I'll start with a recap from last year.

    2006 Position by Position:
    Catcher: .287/.341/.473. Barrett when he played was extremely effective unfortunately between his hot-headedness and his injuries he only played 102 games. Blanco and his black hole bat got around 230 or PA and did what Blanco normally does when he catches.

    First Base: .266/.337/.437 You know you are in trouble when your catching position outhits the firstbasemen and the catcher's name isn't Piazza. With DLee's injury this position was a shell of what it should have been. Oddly enough Blanco in a limited roll put in a fine performance, who knew? Too many games with John Mabry at the sack cost this position any kind of production.

    Second Base: .274/.326/.411 The injury to Lee had a cascade effect that weakened several other positions as well. It caused Todd Walker to mover over and give playing time to Neifi Perez, Hairston, and even Tony Womack at this spot. About a third of the playing time and a good chunk of the production after Walker was moved came when it was too late from Theriot and even Bynum in a limited role.

    Shortstop: .246/.275/.324. Going into this season one of the reasons for optimism for me was that in some spots the team was so bad that the only option was for them to get better prodcution from those spots this year. The shortstops proved me wrong on that one. Everybody who played short for the Cubs was dreadful with the bat. Cedeno, Izturis, and Perez all pretty stunk with the bat this year.

    Thirdbase: .282/.340/.544 A fine season turned in by ARam, with his bench coming up putrid. But overall a good season for this spot.

    LeftField: .280/.346/.428. Murton turned in a fine season and all of Dusty's manuevers at this position that kept Murton from playing were failures.

    CenterField: .294/.333/.393. Mister Pierre played every game and finally got it going at the end.

    RightField: .288/.337/.498 Jacque Jones played 143 ganes and even though he couldn't hit lefties his replacements and him turned in a good season for the Cubs. Though Dusty did stick with Jones against lefties too much.

    Pinchhitters: .216/.284/.320 Despite the fact that it seemed everybody on thsi team was a bench player they got absolutely nothing out of them when the Cubs needed a bat off the bench, yet the Cubs bench had the 6th most AB in the NL.


    According to runs created the offense should have scored 738 runs and the pithcing should have allowed 807 runs.

    So it was:
    Exp: 738-807 .458 winning %
    Actu: 715-834 .407 winning % .427 expected winnning %

  • #2
    So now we look ahead to 2007.

    Catcher: The same cast is back but just a year older. Barrett suffered a severe injury at the end of last year but looks to be fully healed from it. When Barrett was in the lineup he had the best season of his career. I see him getting into around 120 to 130 games and hitting around .285 to .290 with a .350 to .355 OBP and around a .490 SLG. Unfortunately his replacements are still going to be dreadful.
    Overall: .278/.335/.465

    First Base: DLee is back and should be hitting again. I don’t think his great 2005 is realistic but I don’t think he will embarrass NL first basemen with his bat this year.
    Overall: .300/..390/.550

    Second Base: Lots of fresh faces here and lots of question marks. At this point I really have no idea if the guy who starts on opening day is going to actually be the guy who finishes the season there for the Cubs. It is hard to believe DeRosa coming off his best year and playing in Texas can repeat what he did there. It is hard to imagine Theriot repeating what he did in 2006.
    Overall: .275/.345/.440

    Third Base: ARam is back for another year and I look for another good season out of him.
    Overall: .295/.350/.550

    Shortstop: Last year I said it would be hard to put up production as bad as they did the year before. Yet the Cubs did it. This year I am inclined to say the same, but I think they will prove me wrong again. Izturis is not a hitter.
    Overall: .250/.280/.380

    Left Field: This year we got Murton and others manning this spot. Don’t know who will be playing it by the end. Heck even Soriano could be there by the end. It is a tough one to figure out. But if they maintain some type of platoon and only play the healthy players it should return good production
    Overall: .300/.350/.455

    Center Field: If Soriano stays there the whole season this should be a major upgrade. If he doesn’t then I guess it depends on who they put there instead.
    Overall: .275/.340/.550

    Right Field: Well Jacque Jones is back and he still can’t hit lefties nor do I think he is going to continue to hit righties as well as he did last year. I expect this to be a problem area for the Cubs this year.
    Overall: .255/.320/.440

    Pinch Hitters: The Cubs are going to have a better bench this year and I also think that Lou isn’t going to be going to the putrid players as much as Dusty Baker did last year.


    Expected Runs: 835 runs.


    Next up will be the pitchers.

    Comment


    • #3
      The pitchers are a bit of a guess right now. Who can we rely on, who is going to pitch? Does Rich Hill step up? Does Wade Miller give us anything. I really don’t see Lilly and Marquis being of much value. They basically end the merry go round for the back of the rotation. Hopefully they are not a disaster. I think the bullpen is going to be a good one and that helps but the SP is a big question mark.

      I’m not going to break it down player by player since I have no real idea who is going to do what this year. I don’t think they will be as bad as they were last year.

      I’ll put them at around 735 runs allowed this year.

      So that puts the Cubs at a 835-735 run mark.

      Pyth puts that at a .558 winning percentage and 90 wins. Now generally the Cubs have undershot their pyth mark when it comes to actual wins. Meaning they usually lose more games then their runs scored/allowed ratio says they should. With Lou as manager I don’t know if that will be the case.. In the past I usually blame Dusty for making stupid mistakes that would cost the Cubs games. I don’t think Lou will do that.

      I look for the Cubs to win somewhere in the neighborhood of 87 to 93 games next year. If the pitching comes together and the question marks in position ranks pan out I can see this team scoring a bunch of runs while preventing a bunch. But having all of that work out is a long shot.

      Comment


      • #4
        That took a lot of work, Ubiquitous. Thanks for doing that...

        Comment


        • #5
          Good job with your prediction, I hope it comes true and the Cubs have a big season. I don't know how good the team will actually end up being though. I personally wish the Cubs were able to trade Jacque Jones because I think he is a liability, and I would love to see Felix Pie get the shot in center with Soriano in right. Pie has been in enough futures game, and gotten enough minor league experience. He has way more upside than Jones, and is ready to enter the big show.
          -Jibbs

          When we do it they fall off, fall off
          When they look at my ride,
          you see the doors fall off
          And the wheels look flat,
          trunk so heavy in the back
          Got the speakers in the front,
          they be sitting on my lap

          Hit me on the down low
          My articles
          My Space

          Comment


          • #6
            Ubi, I like reading your posts on this stuff. You always tell it like it is and are for the mostp part, very easy to understand, convincing and usually accurate, Lets hope we get 87-93. One question though, do you think that wins the division?
            "I don't like to sound egotistical, but every time I stepped up to the plate with a bat in my hands, I couldn't help but feel sorry for the pitcher."
            -Rogers Hornsby-

            "People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
            -Rogers Hornsby-

            Just a note to all the active members of BBF, I consider all of you the smartest baseball people I have ever communicated with and love everyday I am on here. Thank you all!

            Comment


            • #7
              I think somewhere in there is a number that is likely to win the division. OVer the last few years it has not taken many wins to get to the top of this division. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

              Comment


              • #8
                I still think the expectations are much too high. I just wish for one year the Cubs could be expected to be a bad team again. The last 2 years that they made the playoffs, in 98 and 03 they weren't expected to be that good. In 99 they were expected to be good, and the last 3 years they were expected to be great and all 4 of those years have essentially been failures.
                -Jibbs

                When we do it they fall off, fall off
                When they look at my ride,
                you see the doors fall off
                And the wheels look flat,
                trunk so heavy in the back
                Got the speakers in the front,
                they be sitting on my lap

                Hit me on the down low
                My articles
                My Space

                Comment


                • #9
                  There were a lot of people expecting the Cubs to win in 2003, because of Baker...just Baker wasnt expecting to win as much as he did...but allt he fans were expecting wins from him. Or at least the ones I know.
                  "I don't like to sound egotistical, but every time I stepped up to the plate with a bat in my hands, I couldn't help but feel sorry for the pitcher."
                  -Rogers Hornsby-

                  "People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
                  -Rogers Hornsby-

                  Just a note to all the active members of BBF, I consider all of you the smartest baseball people I have ever communicated with and love everyday I am on here. Thank you all!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Jibbs67
                    I still think the expectations are much too high. I just wish for one year the Cubs could be expected to be a bad team again. The last 2 years that they made the playoffs, in 98 and 03 they weren't expected to be that good. In 99 they were expected to be good, and the last 3 years they were expected to be great and all 4 of those years have essentially been failures.
                    The 2003 Cubs brought Damian Miller at C, Corey Patterson in CF in his sophomore year, Sammy Sosa obviously in right, Moises Alou in Left, Bellhorn coming off a very good 2002, at third with a bunch of youngsters that a lot of people were in love with filling out the rest. Hee Sop, Bobby Hill, Kelton, Prior, Zambrano, and others.

                    I don't think anybody was expecting the playoffs but a lot of people expected 2003 to be the start of something good. 2004 the Cubs were expected to win and they did in fact win more games then in 2003. If not for a late season collapse in which they lost 7 of their last 9 games they would have gone to the playoffs and probably had around 92 or so wins.

                    I don't know who expected the Cubs to be good in 1999. The 1998 team was basically a bad team that got lucky, sure there was hope but I don't think anybody really thought they were going to be good.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      If I recall, in 2004, we were in 1st most of the year, but like you said, we lost 7 of our last 9 games. I think most of September we played horrible.


                      Originally posted by Ubiquitous
                      The 2003 Cubs brought Damian Miller at C, Corey Patterson in CF in his sophomore year, Sammy Sosa obviously in right, Moises Alou in Left, Bellhorn coming off a very good 2002, at third with a bunch of youngsters that a lot of people were in love with filling out the rest. Hee Sop, Bobby Hill, Kelton, Prior, Zambrano, and others.

                      I don't think anybody was expecting the playoffs but a lot of people expected 2003 to be the start of something good. 2004 the Cubs were expected to win and they did in fact win more games then in 2003. If not for a late season collapse in which they lost 7 of their last 9 games they would have gone to the playoffs and probably had around 92 or so wins.

                      I don't know who expected the Cubs to be good in 1999. The 1998 team was basically a bad team that got lucky, sure there was hope but I don't think anybody really thought they were going to be good.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Lipsander
                        If I recall, in 2004, we were in 1st most of the year, but like you said, we lost 7 of our last 9 games. I think most of September we played horrible.
                        The Cardinals won 105 games in 2004 -- we won 89. I'm pretty sure the Cards were in 1st most of the year. We were fighting for the Wild Card spot (which we had a stranglehold on until we went into the skid you mentioned).

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Well i actually think the CUbs will get close to playoffs in enxt two years. We have a good history of having at least one good year under each manager as of late. Zimmer, Riggleman, Baylor, Baker, why not Pinella, who is incrediably better than most of them. Zim Zim is pretty good, heance the word most.
                          "I don't like to sound egotistical, but every time I stepped up to the plate with a bat in my hands, I couldn't help but feel sorry for the pitcher."
                          -Rogers Hornsby-

                          "People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
                          -Rogers Hornsby-

                          Just a note to all the active members of BBF, I consider all of you the smartest baseball people I have ever communicated with and love everyday I am on here. Thank you all!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Yeah, you are right. I have that season mixed up somehow.

                            Originally posted by Butcher
                            The Cardinals won 105 games in 2004 -- we won 89. I'm pretty sure the Cards were in 1st most of the year. We were fighting for the Wild Card spot (which we had a stranglehold on until we went into the skid you mentioned).

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Lipsander
                              Yeah, you are right. I have that season mixed up somehow.
                              I don't blame you. I've tried my best to forget all about that season.

                              Comment

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