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The Ubiquitous Cubs season prediction

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  • #16
    According to a guy who ran various diamond mind simulations using various projection systems the Cubs will end up with around 84 wins. 808 runs for and 775 runs allowed. According to his simulations the Cubs made the playoffs 38.7% of the time. Teams in the NL with better chances:
    Phillies, Mets, Padres, and Cardinals.

    I got them at 835-735.

    Comment


    • #17
      Its hard to say. We are gonna need solid years from 4 of our 5 starting pitchers.

      Comment


      • #18
        Well we are 77 games into the season and now is as good a time as any to do quick look at what is going and what is different then expected.
        Code:
        	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	sOPS+
        as C	0.228	0.287	0.366	0.653	84
        as 1B	0.336	0.413	0.492	0.905	125
        as 2B	0.292	0.35	0.469	0.819	117
        as 3B	0.306	0.358	0.511	0.869	125
        as SS	0.221	0.278	0.279	0.557	54
        as LF	0.316	0.358	0.537	0.895	125
        as CF	0.236	0.295	0.411	0.706	89
        as RF	0.289	0.361	0.365	0.726	91
        as DH	0.333	0.407	0.542	0.949	139
        as P	0.145	0.167	0.237	0.404	123
        as PH	0.231	0.339	0.413	0.752	133
        Catcher: Michael Barrett has/had been a disaster for the Cubs this year. Severely tanking with the bat thus highlighting his flaws on defense. New guy Hill doesn't look to be helping any with the stick though his defense so far appears to be better then Barretts. I expected a decline from this position from last year, just not this much. With Hill taking over don't expect any real improvement on the production out of this spot.

        First Base: DLee would be a nice throwback firstbasemen but this is the 2000's. I expected a little more power out of him and we might get a little but I don't know if we will see it. His away numbers are down to abnormal levels and I expect him to return to form somewhat on those numbers. So if he maintains his home numbers while improving his away numbers we should see slightly higher production then I expected out of this position.

        Second base: Kudos to DeRosa, Fontenot, and Theriot for exceeding expectations so far. But be warned people I don't think it will last. Fontenot right now is a big reason why the numbers are so high and he isn't going to keep this pace up. But the good news is is that the fall is not likely to be a huge one and we should get decent production from this spot.

        Shortstop: Ugh. Every year I think they can't get any worse at this spot and yet they do. I nailed the OBP for this one but I didn't think it would be possible to have a SLG that low. Bad news is that unless the Cubs do something it is unlikely to get much better.

        Third base: A common theme from our power guys seems to be that they are off on their power. ARam has the batting average and OBP I expected but he like DLee is lacking a bit in the SLG department. Throw in some injuries which have put some less powerful guys in the spot and we have production that is slightly off. IF ARam can stay healthy I expect the SLg to go up.

        LF: For this I have to move my CF prediction to LF. Soriano is doing a pretty good job meeting expectations and if he can continue to do so it will be a solid year for us out of this spot.

        RF: I didn't expect much from here and we didn't get much. The good news is that the OBP is actually pretty good the bad news is that they got no pop.

        CF: With Soriano in left this position has been stripped of a ton of run potential. It's slugging is decent but its OBP is absolutely horrible. Soriano's hammy cost the Cubs a lot of runs.


        PH: I expected Lou and Co to surround themselves with better bench players then Dusty and so far that appears to be true.

        As far as pitchers go I was wrong about Lilly and Marguis so far. They really saved the Cubs bacon.

        The Cubs are on pace to score 745 runs and allow 680. I expected 835-735. I expect going into the second hald the cubs runs allow to go slightly up to say around a 700 runs total. The Cubs offense really needs to get it together, but the problem is I don't know if it will. I think if all or most things go right, Aramis stays healthy and he and Lee get hot, Lou rides the hot hand, and the sinkholes are not allowed lots of playing time the Cubs could add on 50 runs or so. I think saying they finish with about 790 runs would not be an unreasonable expectation. Now if Hendry can pull some trades that remove Izturis and put another bat in the outfield we might crack 800 runs yet.

        But on the flipside if Hendry does nothing and ARam and Lee don't start knocking the ball out of the park I can certainly see the Cubs struggling to score runs. There can be days when we have 3 or 4 blackholes in the lineup.

        So at this point I am hoping to finish 790-700. Which if that happens the Cubs should go 48-37 from here on out and finish with about 86 wins. I had them at about 87 to 93 wins and I believe Diamond Mind had them at about 84 wins.

        Comment


        • #19
          One month later and 27 games later here is the next quick update:
          Code:
          	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	sOPS+
          as C	0.205	0.268	0.329	0.597	70
          as 1B	0.313	0.4	0.479	0.879	117
          as 2B	0.279	0.339	0.415	0.754	100
          as 3B	0.323	0.368	0.522	0.89	128
          as SS	0.256	0.319	0.338	0.657	81
          as LF	0.303	0.34	0.51	0.85	114
          as CF	0.239	0.301	0.394	0.695	83
          as RF	0.29	0.359	0.372	0.731	89
          as DH	0.333	0.407	0.542	0.949	143
          as P	0.169	0.184	0.237	0.421	132
          as PH	0.213	0.301	0.36	0.661	103
          C: Most probably thought it could get any worse at this spot and yet the offense has declined still further. Don't expect any improvement out of this spot.

          1B: Derrek Lee got suspended and over the 27 games production from this spot actually dropped as compared to earlier months

          2B: This spot is rapidly coming back down to earth. DeRosa was injured for a bit and Fontenot is having a terrible July.

          SS: Biggest improvement at this spot. The wonders of getting rid of Izturis. Theriot has done a wonderful job turning this black hole into something positive this month.

          3B: The steady Ram is providing his usual production out of this spot while his backups are filling in nicely.

          LF: Soriano is having a terrible July offensively and needs to turn it around

          CF: Production continues to decline at this spot and only a hot streak from Jones kept this from being truly dreadful.

          RF: Floyd has managed not make this spot crater but it still isn't producing anything of real value.

          Bench: Perhaps because most of the bench is now starting this spot has founds it production plummeting over the last month.

          In short the offense has been horrible this month, in fact it is the Cubs worst month this season and yet the Cubs are winning. Why? Because of pitching/defense that is why. Cubs pitching has posted it lowest ERA of the season in July.

          I think a lot of people are positive about the Cubs right now but the Cubs offense needs to get it going or else this is all just a mirage.

          Comment


          • #20
            Okay a month later and here is the breakdowns by position:
            Code:
            Split	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	sOPS+ 	Split
            as C	0.228	0.293	0.351	0.644	82	as C
            as 1B	0.302	0.389	0.469	0.858	112	as 1B
            as 2B	0.279	0.342	0.409	0.751	99	as 2B
            as 3B	0.315	0.366	0.508	0.874	124	as 3B
            as SS	0.264	0.321	0.345	0.666	82	as SS
            as LF	0.301	0.339	0.496	0.835	107	as LF
            as CF	0.248	0.305	0.406	0.711	86	as CF
            as RF	0.292	0.36	0.394	0.754	90	as RF
            as DH	0.333	0.407	0.542	0.949	141	as DH
            as P	0.159	0.174	0.217	0.391	113	as P
            as PH	0.188	0.281	0.306	0.587	81	as PH
            As you can see are bench (PH) have taken a nosedive while Kendall has improved the catchers spot. Other then that most positions are regressing or holding their own with very if any increase in production.

            Comment


            • #21
              Ubiquitous, can you update this with your final analysis?

              Comment


              • #22
                When the final two games are in the book I plan on finishing this thread.

                Thanks for checking back in.
                Last edited by Ubiquitous; 09-28-2007, 08:54 PM.

                Comment


                • #23
                  So at this point I am hoping to finish 790-700. Which if that happens the Cubs should go 48-37 from here on out and finish with about 86 wins. I had them at about 87 to 93 wins and I believe Diamond Mind had them at about 84 wins.
                  Well, if the Cubs win the next two I'll have nailed the midseason prediction. Though I'll probably be off by 40 runs scored and 10 runs allowed. The Cubs could just never get their offense going.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    All the numbers are in, everything is final, so now is the time to look back and see what happened.

                    Final Numbers:
                    Code:
                    Split	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	sOPS+	Split
                    as C	0.239	0.304	0.369	0.673	89	as C
                    as 1B	0.307	0.389	0.494	0.883	116	as 1B
                    as 2B	0.286	0.353	0.413	0.766	103	as 2B
                    as 3B	0.31	0.366	0.52	0.886	124	as 3B
                    as SS	0.254	0.309	0.331	0.64	75	as SS
                    as LF	0.305	0.343	0.548	0.891	120	as LF
                    as CF	0.254	0.305	0.404	0.709	86	as CF
                    as RF	0.293	0.375	0.419	0.794	99	as RF
                    as P	0.155	0.167	0.207	0.374	104	as P
                    as PH	0.208	0.314	0.335	0.649	97	as PH
                    C: Michael Barrett in the beginning was slumping a bit but for awhile there is offense was about as good as it was going to get. Through the first 77 games the C ops+ was 84, then a month later it went down to 70, Kendall's good month knocked it up to 82 and Soto finishing it out brought it back up to 89. I placed this spot at .278/.335/.465. This spot obviously did not live up to that. Barrett turned into a pumpkin and could no longer carry his defense and attitude. I was expecting a bit of a decline though nothing this serious.

                    1B: Derrek Lee's power vanished but he retained the ability to get on base. Cubs first basemen started out good and then slowly declined before a hot September but the numbers back up a bit. 125, 117, 112, and then finally 116. I had the first basemen at .300/.390/.550. Obviously the only real difference was the missing homers.

                    2B: I was being conservative I thought when making this projection out due to not knowing what was going to happen here. In the early part of the season they rode a nice little hot streak out of Fontenot but saw that quickly collapse and then level off. 117, 100, 99, and then 103. In the end DeRosa put in a nice season hitting the league average out of the second base position is pretty darn valuable. I had them pegged at .275/.345/.440. Again the killer for my projection was the lack of power. Which basically is going to play hobgoblin to all projections for the Cubs.

                    3B: Aramis' playing time killed my projection with DeRosa filling in the most and putting up rather lackluster SLG numbers to drain this position a bit. But for the most part the position was stable and rock sold. 125, 128, 124. Once again this spot missed its SLG. Though this time it easily surpassed its OBP and SLG numbers.

                    SS: Every year I say it can't be as bad as it was last year and every year they prove me wrong. This again was a bad year for SS. Theriot manned it at the end but unfortunately for this position it also coincides with his slide back to reality. 54, 81, 82, and finally 64. This was probably the one position in which Lou wasn't able to transfer in the hot hand when the position went cold.

                    The outfield positions are a bit of a mess but that is because nobody really knew where everybody was going to play.

                    LF: For this I'm going to use my CF projection. I nailed this one for the most part except for batting average. Soriano turned an excellent season when healthy and of course turned it on at the end. I had this spot at .340/.550 and it turned in a .343/.548. 125, 107, 114, and finally 120.

                    CF: Without Soriano this position collapsed. Some playing time by a hot Jones raised it up somewhat but Jones wasn't all that good in this spot either. 89, 83, 86, and then 86.

                    RF: The top 6 players at this position all turned in very good OBP. Unfortunately the bottom two in terms of playing time of those 6 turned in the best SLG. Floyd got hot at the end and helped bring up the SLG. But once again this was another SLG problem area. 91, 89, 90, and then 99

                    PH: In the beginning the bench played really well but unfortunately the starters were really bad and then got yanked for the bench. Once that happened it nosedived. 133, 103, 81, and finally at hot september in which the crucial hits seems to always happen back up to 97.


                    AS far as pitching goes Ted Lilly was a surprise to me. He finished with 15 wins though he could have had 16 wins if the division wasn't already wrapped up. Marquis started as a surprise but his this "ace" turned back into a pumpkin in the second half. Zambrano was shaky and great throughout the season. Hill showed the world he was at the very least a solid middle of the rotation pitcher. Marshall didn't get the love from Lou and got yanked despite the nice ERA but for the most part I can't disagree with the assessment. Though I can disagree with his replacement (Trachsel). Marshall always looks to be pitching on borrowed time. He gives up hits and walks (and the homer) and yet somehow he seems to wiggle out of it.

                    The bullpen was solid once Lou found who he could trust and who he couldn't. Eyre after pitching a horrible first half did very well in an extremely limited role. Lou stopped sending him up as a normal reliever as used him as a specialist. Marmol of course was a wow and a definite need. Dempster as of late looks shaky but for most of the season he did fine.

                    Overall the lack of slugging kill run production, giving the Cubs only 752 runs. Some injuries to Alfonso and Aramis also hurt run production as well. With a healthy Alfonso and Aramis this offense even with its lack of slugging probably gets up to 775 or so and if you factor in a slightly less unusual SLG dip it would have easily gotten over 800 runs. Hopefully next year we get a bit of a bounce back with the power and Aramis and ALfonso stay healthy or at least healthier in the case of Aramis.

                    The pitching because of Marquis and Lilly was better then I thought it would do at the beginning of the year. I had them at 735 runs allowed. They allowed only 690.

                    At the beginning I said 87 to 93 wins, at the midway point with a few things known I put in a 86 win prediction with 790 runs scored and 700 runs allowed in total. At the time they were on pace for 745 runs and 680 runs allowed. The Cubs just never got the power going until the last month and all that did was dig them out of the hole they dug in the months leading up to September.

                    So the Cubs final numbers wer 85 wins (should have been 86) and 752 runs scored 690 allowed.

                    Final numbers were pretty close but the Cubs got there in a different way then I expected. A better pitching staff then I expected and a worse hitting group then I thought would happen.

                    Comment

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