Ohman And Pierre come to terms

[Slightly Sarcastic]

The general consensus from other boards I lurk at is that Pierre is the savior this team has lacked for over a decade and he singlehandedly will bring a WS title to Wrigley this year. And that's why I don't register at those sites, the thinking at those places is just absurd.

He is marginal player, not worth the $5.75M he's getting paid and not worth losing Pinto and Nolasco in trade.

[Bob Sacamento]

What makes Pierre overrated? Because some like him/his skills and you don't.
I don't see him in any top 10 lists and more importantly, no team was offering a trade package for Pierre the came anywhere close to what Texas received for Soriano. Nothing even close.
Soriano receives infinitely more praise than Pierre and the 2 aren't even in the same league when it comes to being valued around MLB and by fans in general.

He was traded for Sergio Mitre and 2 prospects. If he was so overrated, surely someone would have topped that deal. The Marlins also knew the Cubs were dead set on aquiring him, otherwise he likely could've been had for the 2 prospects alone.

What makes Pierre so overrated is the fact that he relies heavily on his speed to get on base, not his hitting prowess. The 180-200 hits are embellished due to his wheels, and he negects ~20 of those hits by taking himself off the bases due to poor basestealing. Soriano is overrated on different accords, he can slug which is what makes him an amazing offensive 2B but he has a horrendous glove at second and couldn't draw a walk to save his life. The Cubs' trade for Pierre of Mitre, Nolasco and Pinto (2 of the Cubs top 10 prospects) was the highest on the table much higher than the next offer on the table. Once Chicago lost on the Furcal sweepstakes, the Marlins knew they had Hendry's nuts in a vice, and Jim cracked like a horse's back with Roseanne Barr-Arnold on it. Comparing Nolasco/Pinto to what the Nationals gave up for Soriano, Wilkerson and Sledge, Wilkerson/Sledge have more worth in MLB right now, but Nolasco/Pinto have a much higher ceiling then those two have.

I'm sure you're aware of all of this:
Pierre has a career .305/.355 AVG/OBP
He's had 200 or more hits in 3 seasons
He had 181 last year in his worst season
He's one of the hardest guys in the league to strike out
He's played 162 games for 3 straight years and only missed 16 games over the past 5 years.

I'm sure your aware of this, Pierre has never scored more than 100 runs as a Marlin, and the most runs he had was 108 in an offensively stacked Rockies of 2001 (Helton and Walker). In addition to being one of the hardest guys to strikeout, he's one of the hardest to walk. Drawing just 41 walks last year in 656 at bats. For his career avg of .305, his OBP-AVG differential is a mere .050 which is very small for modern day leadoff hitter. Thus adding more fuel to the fire, that if Pierre doesn't hit .300 or higher than he is a liability in the leadoff role. He also has never posted a SLG% above .415 (2001 in Colorado), which indicates his high singles hit rate. His triples have been pretty high in his career (close to 10 per season), but he's played in the spacious Coors and Pro Player, where triples are much easier to achieve than in the cramped Wrigley.

Apparently Soriano is a selfish jagoff who refuses to move from 2B even if it would be best for his team and there's a better 2B-man already on the team. He made sure to let his new team know immediately after trading for him that he won't be sticking around after this season.

The Nationals knew what they were getting when the traded for Alf, they knew he told the Yanks no to a permanent switch for 2B, along with countless other teams that were interested. Soriano's wishes to remain a 2B are linked to his incredible offensive worth and historical context of second baseman hitters. That I don't blame him on, baseball is business first, relationships/friendships are secondary, Alf just wants to be paid. If he posted his similiar stats as an outfielder, than his worth is probably half or 3/4 of his current worth.

If Adam Dunn ever suffers major or chronic shoulder, wrist, or elbow injury, he'll be basically useless.
If Kerry Wood ever suffers a chronic shoulder injury...

That same pointless line can be used for most athletes and all pitchers. Look at Wood, certainly one of the most overrated players in the game the past 2 years. He hasn't come anywhere near earning his contract and has been the 3rd-4th best pitcher on his own team.

I think your trying to quantify heavy debilitating injuries with twinges and ailments. Sure Wood has been heavily injured the last two seasons, but for 2002 and 2003 he was one of healthiest, and most elite starters in the game. His huge contract came after the 2003 season where he helped guide the Cubs to their second playoff series since 1989 (he had a big part in the first appearance since '89 in his rookie season of 1998. In today's market, all a young pitcher (under 30)has to have is one good/great season to earn a 3/4 year deal. But the Cubs knew Wood has serious mechanical issues and a history of arm injuries that have plagued him over the course of his professional career, before they signed Wood to his deal.

As for Dunn, he's as healthy as producers come, and even if his power numbers faultered from the last four years, he has an incredible eye and OBP (a career .135 OBP-AVG differential) to fall back on to stay a good MLBer. Something that Juan Pierre doesn't have. 2005 was a glimer of what happens to Pierre if his legs aren't 100%, he posted his worst AVG (.276) and OBP (.326) of his career, while keeping his career OBP-AVG differential of .050.

Sure there's a reason, baseball became a juiced HR derby in the mid-late 90's and the skill of stealing a base disappeared because many players who had the speed sacrificed it in favor of bulking up. Until the steroid flux of the 90's, guys like Pierre were still prototypical leadoff hitters. They certainly were in the 80's. Now that many baseball players look like linebackers and use flaxseed oil, they've grown so big that they don't have a running game. There were a slew of Pierre-type leadoff guys in the 80's and Lofton did pretty good for himself in the 90's.

Prior to the 90's, baseball players were generally thinner and more athletic. They looked more like basketball & tennis players than football players.
The Cardinals dominated a few seasons throughout the 80's, in large part because of a strong running game.

Baseball is no longer a sport where players have to work "regular" jobs during the offseason. Players have grown with the advancement of "nutritional supplements" and with the influx of proper and isotonic weight lifting over the last 20 years, not only in baseball but in sports in general. As for speedy players that know they live on their speed, they don't bulk up for more power; it's the fringe players that have switched their focus to power instead of speed because it earns a bigger paycheck. Concerning the late 80's Cardinals, it didn't hurt their leadoff man was Vince Coleman who had a success rate of stealing in 1985 (82% - 110/135), 1986 (88% - 107/121), and 1987 (83% - 109/131) that tempered his piss-poor OBP at the time, .320, .301, .363 during the same time. Mix that along with a 2nd hole hitter in Willie "ET" McGee who had excellent speed and stealing techniques as well and others who had adequate speed numbers in Van Slyke, Ozzie, and Herr.

Pierre is no longer a prototypical leadoff along the likes of Lou Brock etc ages ago, in today's game the leadoff hitter has become an OBP juggerant not a stolen base wizard with a marginal OBP. Teams have figured out that their leadoff hitters just have to get on base, not steal bases to be effective leadoff hitters.

I don't think Pierre puts a mediocre team over the top, but he does add a dimension that few teams have in their lineup.

Pierre will be a bonus to what was leading off in 2005 but he's not as good as Todd Walker was 2004 leading off. In 60 games as a leadoff man in 2004, Walker had 45 runs and 12 hrs in 228 at bats, posting lines of .294/.370/.535/.905

Don't get me wrong, I want Pierre to succeed in Chicago like he did in 2004 for the Marlins (326/.374/.407/.781) but the statisical numbers aren't looking that way. One of the best things that happens to Pierre in Chicago is that his chances of stealing bases will likely be cut from 70-80 times to 50-60 under Dusty. Hopefully the lessened opportunities lead to a much more successful rate at stealing bases.

[Kessinger#11]

Pierre or C Pat

Although not a huge Pierre fan, he will get on base, steal bases (yes he'll get himself thrown out more often then he should), score a ton of runs, and yes distract the opposing picher while on base. His arm in CF is weaker then Mickey River's (if possible), however BOTTOM LINE ....Pierre or C. Pat. I rest my case.:gt

[Bob Sacamento]

however BOTTOM LINE ....Pierre or C. Pat. I rest my case.:gt

A more appropriate question is, Pierre or Hairston or even Walker. Personally, I'd take Walker over the other two as an offensive leadoff man.

[RyneSandberg23]

I personally love Pierre. I love the way he plays the game and I think he's very underrated. I am thrilled we have him and I believe he will have a fantastic career as a Cub. This club has been dying to have a legit leadoff man. Speed is such an important and undervalued part of this game that we have not had recently. I think he will be a major reason why our offense will be greatly improved this year.

[rockin500]

A more appropriate question is, Pierre or Hairston or even Walker. Personally, I'd take Walker over the other two as an offensive leadoff man.

hairston was a liability in every facet of the game last year. offensively and defensively. i'd rather have pierre leading off than hairston.

walker is not a good leadoff man. He's got zero speed and would be more suited to a #2 spot than the leadoff spot.

[Ravenlord]

What makes Pierre so overrated is the fact that he relies heavily on his speed to get on base, not his hitting prowess. The 180-200 hits are embellished due to his wheels, and he negects ~20 of those hits by taking himself off the bases due to poor basestealing. Soriano is overrated on different accords, he can slug which is what makes him an amazing offensive 2B but he has a horrendous glove at second and couldn't draw a walk to save his life. The Cubs' trade for Pierre of Mitre, Nolasco and Pinto (2 of the Cubs top 10 prospects) was the highest on the table much higher than the next offer on the table. Once Chicago lost on the Furcal sweepstakes, the Marlins knew they had Hendry's nuts in a vice, and Jim cracked like a horse's back with Roseanne Barr-Arnold on it. Comparing Nolasco/Pinto to what the Nationals gave up for Soriano, Wilkerson and Sledge, Wilkerson/Sledge have more worth in MLB right now, but Nolasco/Pinto have a much higher ceiling then those two have.


I'm sure your aware of this, Pierre has never scored more than 100 runs as a Marlin, and the most runs he had was 108 in an offensively stacked Rockies of 2001 (Helton and Walker). In addition to being one of the hardest guys to strikeout, he's one of the hardest to walk. Drawing just 41 walks last year in 656 at bats. For his career avg of .305, his OBP-AVG differential is a mere .050 which is very small for modern day leadoff hitter. Thus adding more fuel to the fire, that if Pierre doesn't hit .300 or higher than he is a liability in the leadoff role. He also has never posted a SLG% above .415 (2001 in Colorado), which indicates his high singles hit rate. His triples have been pretty high in his career (close to 10 per season), but he's played in the spacious Coors and Pro Player, where triples are much easier to achieve than in the cramped Wrigley.


The Nationals knew what they were getting when the traded for Alf, they knew he told the Yanks no to a permanent switch for 2B, along with countless other teams that were interested. Soriano's wishes to remain a 2B are linked to his incredible offensive worth and historical context of second baseman hitters. That I don't blame him on, baseball is business first, relationships/friendships are secondary, Alf just wants to be paid. If he posted his similiar stats as an outfielder, than his worth is probably half or 3/4 of his current worth.



I think your trying to quantify heavy debilitating injuries with twinges and ailments. Sure Wood has been heavily injured the last two seasons, but for 2002 and 2003 he was one of healthiest, and most elite starters in the game. His huge contract came after the 2003 season where he helped guide the Cubs to their second playoff series since 1989 (he had a big part in the first appearance since '89 in his rookie season of 1998. In today's market, all a young pitcher (under 30)has to have is one good/great season to earn a 3/4 year deal. But the Cubs knew Wood has serious mechanical issues and a history of arm injuries that have plagued him over the course of his professional career, before they signed Wood to his deal.

As for Dunn, he's as healthy as producers come, and even if his power numbers faultered from the last four years, he has an incredible eye and OBP (a career .135 OBP-AVG differential) to fall back on to stay a good MLBer. Something that Juan Pierre doesn't have. 2005 was a glimer of what happens to Pierre if his legs aren't 100%, he posted his worst AVG (.276) and OBP (.326) of his career, while keeping his career OBP-AVG differential of .050.


Baseball is no longer a sport where players have to work "regular" jobs during the offseason. Players have grown with the advancement of "nutritional supplements" and with the influx of proper and isotonic weight lifting over the last 20 years, not only in baseball but in sports in general. As for speedy players that know they live on their speed, they don't bulk up for more power; it's the fringe players that have switched their focus to power instead of speed because it earns a bigger paycheck. Concerning the late 80's Cardinals, it didn't hurt their leadoff man was Vince Coleman who had a success rate of stealing in 1985 (82% - 110/135), 1986 (88% - 107/121), and 1987 (83% - 109/131) that tempered his piss-poor OBP at the time, .320, .301, .363 during the same time. Mix that along with a 2nd hole hitter in Willie "ET" McGee who had excellent speed and stealing techniques as well and others who had adequate speed numbers in Van Slyke, Ozzie, and Herr.

Pierre is no longer a prototypical leadoff along the likes of Lou Brock etc ages ago, in today's game the leadoff hitter has become an OBP juggerant not a stolen base wizard with a marginal OBP. Teams have figured out that their leadoff hitters just have to get on base, not steal bases to be effective leadoff hitters.



Pierre will be a bonus to what was leading off in 2005 but he's not as good as Todd Walker was 2004 leading off. In 60 games as a leadoff man in 2004, Walker had 45 runs and 12 hrs in 228 at bats, posting lines of .294/.370/.535/.905

Don't get me wrong, I want Pierre to succeed in Chicago like he did in 2004 for the Marlins (326/.374/.407/.781) but the statisical numbers aren't looking that way. One of the best things that happens to Pierre in Chicago is that his chances of stealing bases will likely be cut from 70-80 times to 50-60 under Dusty. Hopefully the lessened opportunities lead to a much more successful rate at stealing bases.

you just said in one post what has taken me multiple posts in multiple threads dating back to the trade deadline to say.

[burger eater]

originally posted by: Bob
What makes Pierre so overrated is the fact that he relies heavily on his speed to get on base, not his hitting prowess. The 180-200 hits are embellished due to his wheels, and he negects ~20 of those hits by taking himself off the bases due to poor basestealing. Soriano is overrated on different accords, he can slug which is what makes him an amazing offensive 2B but he has a horrendous glove at second and couldn't draw a walk to save his life. The Cubs' trade for Pierre of Mitre, Nolasco and Pinto (2 of the Cubs top 10 prospects) was the highest on the table much higher than the next offer on the table. Once Chicago lost on the Furcal sweepstakes, the Marlins knew they had Hendry's nuts in a vice, and Jim cracked like a horse's back with Roseanne Barr-Arnold on it. Comparing Nolasco/Pinto to what the Nationals gave up for Soriano, Wilkerson and Sledge, Wilkerson/Sledge have more worth in MLB right now, but Nolasco/Pinto have a much higher ceiling then those two have.

I still contend that Pierre is rated accordingly. You haven’t shown anything that says he’s overrated. I don’t care if he gets on base primarily with speed or not, he’s managed to do it to the tune of a .355 career OBA. He’s 28 years old. Do you think 28 is over the hump?
Pierre is in no way rated anywhere near Soriano.

If either of Nolasco or Pinto ever contributes to an MLB club as much as Wilkerson has... hooray for the Marlins. I doubt it though.

I'm sure your aware of this, Pierre has never scored more than 100 runs as a Marlin, and the most runs he had was 108 in an offensively stacked Rockies of 2001 (Helton and Walker). In addition to being one of the hardest guys to strikeout, he's one of the hardest to walk. Drawing just 41 walks last year in 656 at bats. For his career avg of .305, his OBP-AVG differential is a mere .050 which is very small for modern day leadoff hitter. Thus adding more fuel to the fire, that if Pierre doesn't hit .300 or higher than he is a liability in the leadoff role. He also has never posted a SLG% above .415 (2001 in Colorado), which indicates his high singles hit rate. His triples have been pretty high in his career (close to 10 per season), but he's played in the spacious Coors and Pro Player, where triples are much easier to achieve than in the cramped Wrigley.

Sure, and the OBP monster Dunn, in a freakin’ stacked lineup, has managed to score 100 runs just twice. He barely scored over 100 the past 2 seasons - 107 and 105.
SLG isn’t necessary for a leadoff hitter who has the speed that Pierre has and his mediocre AVG/OBP differential certainly hasn’t kept him from scoring runs. His runs in 5 full seasons:
108
90
100
100
96

Brad Wilkerson and his large .103 AVG/OBP differential in the leadoff hole last year scored a whopping 74 runs.
Eckstein, with a higher AVG and much higher OBP in 2005, and with a superior lineup behind him, only scored 90 runs last year as leadoff for the Cardinals.

Pierre has had no problem scoring runs. As for being a liability, he still managed to score 96 runs last year in his worst season.

The Nationals knew what they were getting when the traded for Alf, they knew he told the Yanks no to a permanent switch for 2B, along with countless other teams that were interested. Soriano's wishes to remain a 2B are linked to his incredible offensive worth and historical context of second baseman hitters. That I don't blame him on, baseball is business first, relationships/friendships are secondary, Alf just wants to be paid. If he posted his similiar stats as an outfielder, than his worth is probably half or 3/4 of his current worth.

You’re right and everybody knows that’s what makes him more valuable. It doesn’t mean he’s worth a damn as a 2B-man. Nomar is “historically” worth much more as a SS, but he’s a defensive liability at SS. Why does historical worth/value matter in this case when in Pierre’s case, he’s a prototypical leadoff guy by historical measurement, but not by today’s standards. If traditional/historical value doesn’t matter for leadoff men, why does it for middle infielders who hit like outfielders? There are numerous MI guys who hit like only outfielders did 20 years ago.
All that said, Soriano is still an ego driven, me-first player who isn’t doing himself any favors by sticking his nose in the air.

I think your trying to quantify heavy debilitating injuries with twinges and ailments. Sure Wood has been heavily injured the last two seasons, but for 2002 and 2003 he was one of healthiest, and most elite starters in the game. His huge contract came after the 2003 season where he helped guide the Cubs to their second playoff series since 1989 (he had a big part in the first appearance since '89 in his rookie season of 1998. In today's market, all a young pitcher (under 30)has to have is one good/great season to earn a 3/4 year deal. But the Cubs knew Wood has serious mechanical issues and a history of arm injuries that have plagued him over the course of his professional career, before they signed Wood to his deal.

As for Dunn, he's as healthy as producers come, and even if his power numbers faultered from the last four years, he has an incredible eye and OBP (a career .135 OBP-AVG differential) to fall back on to stay a good MLBer. Something that Juan Pierre doesn't have. 2005 was a glimer of what happens to Pierre if his legs aren't 100%, he posted his worst AVG (.276) and OBP (.326) of his career, while keeping his career OBP-AVG differential of .050.

You said major or chronic injury, not a twinge. Dunn is as worthless as anyone with a major injury that weakens his power. His OBP is only nice because it comes with great power. Without the power, he’s a slower Jeremy Giambi... An iceberg who can’t play any defensive position. Without power, Dunn is not a good MLB’er.

Didn’t Juan actually have a below career average BABIP last year that contributed some to his sub-par season?

Baseball is no longer a sport where players have to work "regular" jobs during the offseason. Players have grown with the advancement of "nutritional supplements" and with the influx of proper and isotonic weight lifting over the last 20 years, not only in baseball but in sports in general. As for speedy players that know they live on their speed, they don't bulk up for more power; it's the fringe players that have switched their focus to power instead of speed because it earns a bigger paycheck. Concerning the late 80's Cardinals, it didn't hurt their leadoff man was Vince Coleman who had a success rate of stealing in 1985 (82% - 110/135), 1986 (88% - 107/121), and 1987 (83% - 109/131) that tempered his piss-poor OBP at the time, .320, .301, .363 during the same time. Mix that along with a 2nd hole hitter in Willie "ET" McGee who had excellent speed and stealing techniques as well and others who had adequate speed numbers in Van Slyke, Ozzie, and Herr.

Pierre is no longer a prototypical leadoff along the likes of Lou Brock etc ages ago, in today's game the leadoff hitter has become an OBP juggerant not a stolen base wizard with a marginal OBP. Teams have figured out that their leadoff hitters just have to get on base, not steal bases to be effective leadoff hitters.

Nutritional supplements… weight lifting… swollen heads.
Are you adverse to admitting steroids has been a serious problem in MLB over the past 10 years? I know many Cubs fans still cling to hope that Sammy wasn’t juicing. That’s either extremely optimistic or as I see it, dumb and naïve.

Rafael Furcal, Brad Wilkerson, David Eckstein, Chone Figgins, Willy Taveras, Todd Walker. Different types of leadoff hitters, and none of them really score any more runs hitting leadoff than Pierre does. A huge part of scoring is team dependant as well. If you have a clown like Dusty sticking Neifi behind Juan, it will certainly cut down on his chances to score.
OBP is great anywhere in the order and most valuable, but speedy guys will always have a place at the top of the order because of the threat they create when on base. Pierre has managed to carry a nice OBP over his career and creates a distraction to the pitcher that guys like Walker, Wilkerson and Eckstein don‘t.
This is a dead horse anyway. In his worst OBP year, Pierre scored 96 runs.

Pierre will be a bonus to what was leading off in 2005 but he's not as good as Todd Walker was 2004 leading off. In 60 games as a leadoff man in 2004, Walker had 45 runs and 12 hrs in 228 at bats, posting lines of .294/.370/.535/.905

Don't get me wrong, I want Pierre to succeed in Chicago like he did in 2004 for the Marlins (326/.374/.407/.781) but the statisical numbers aren't looking that way. One of the best things that happens to Pierre in Chicago is that his chances of stealing bases will likely be cut from 70-80 times to 50-60 under Dusty. Hopefully the lessened opportunities lead to a much more successful rate at stealing bases.

Bob, you’re stepping on your own toes here. Just a couple months ago in a Hendry/Dusty debate, while defending Dusty, you claimed that Hendry failed to get a leadoff hitter in 04-05. I claimed Walker was a very serviceable leadoff hitter in 2004 and would’ve been the best option for 2005, but Dusty the mule was too busy making excuses that Walker doesn‘t have the speed while he continued to stick his guy Neifi and Corey at the top of the order.

Plus,
Walker's 228 AB's hitting leadoff in 2004 were nice, but in his other 144 AB's, he leveled his OBP down to .352. There's no way he would carry a .370 OBP over a full season, he's only done that once (at .372) in all his years and he had to hit .316 to do it. Walker isn't the walk machine that some make him out to be...
He has a career .290 AVG and .348 OBP
And not that it really matters, but he always K's more than he walks.

I love Todd Walker and he would be a decent option to leadoff, but his superior hitting skills have still never scored him more runs than Pierre and Juan’s career AVG/OBP are both better than Todd’s.
I’ll take Pierre. Walker is much more suited to be a #2 hitter.

[marlins rule]

go pierre

thank you sandberg. pierre is simply underrated. im also a huge j.p. fan. he can get on base, get clutch hits, score runs and steal bases when he needs to help his team out. slighty sarcastic guy you are simply overrated.

pierre out

[Lipsander]

I saw a stat on Sports Center yesterday that said since 2003, Ichiro Suzuki had around 751 hits, Michael Young had like 710 hits, but the surprise was Juan Pierre, he has had 679 hits since 2003.

[KCGHOST]

Anybody who believes in Juan Pierre has to be betting heavily on his return to his pre-2005 levels. He certainly is young enough that you just can't say his decline is age based, but at some point realism has to enter the equation. In 2005 in 718 PA's he produced at a .276/.326/.354 clip (.680 OPS). That is simply awful. Granted his speed will mean he scores a little more often than the average player.

In 2006 he is floating along at a sub-.600 OPS level with an OBP south of .300. Now how anybody can look at his 2005-6 levels and say this guy is underrated is a flight of fancy.

Two final points. First, he is a below average CF. Second, if he was on the Royals he would not be the starting CF.