Cubs' Off Season That Bad?

[Lipsander]

Foxsports.com and Dayn Perry gave the Cubs a "D" for their off season signing/trades. They gave the Colorado Rockies and the Cincinnati Reds a "C". I think someone there is against our Cubs really hard. They gave us the same rating as they did the Florida Marlins....??? I think that analysis is total bs. What do you guys think?

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5198854

[rockin500]

Foxsports.com and Dayn Perry gave the Cubs a "D" for their off season signing/trades. They gave the Colorado Rockies and the Cincinnati Reds a "C". I think someone there is against our Cubs really hard. They gave us the same rating as they did the Florida Marlins....??? I think that analysis is total bs. What do you guys think?

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5198854

its dayn perry. so take it for what its worth: toilet paper.

[Bob Sacamento]

I'd say it's an appropriate grade, at least in the general vicinity, the highest I'd go is a C- or a stretched C. Cub fans are lullying themselves into a false sense of security with the addition of Howry and Eyre that the bullpen is vastly improved. And Dayn is correct (didn't think I'd ever say that) in that Pierre is overrated and Jones screams a "we have to do something".

Over last season's team, we haven't made any major improvements that will increase our standing in the division or league.

We're going to need Wood, Prior and Zambrano healthy all year and putting up career years in order for us to go anywhere.

[Lipsander]

We're going to need Wood, Prior and Zambrano healthy all year and putting up career years in order for us to go anywhere.

That's going out on a limb. The only big help we got was St. Louis and Houston getting a little worse in the off season.

[weatherdood]

St. Louis and Houston might have gotten worse but we did not get that much better. We finished 10 games behind Houston last year and 21 games behind St. Louis. Our additions and their subtractions are not 10 and 21 games worth!

I still place the Cubs no higher than 3rd in the Division this year. They'll win 85 games, but still finish at least 10 games behind St. Louis

[Cubsfan97]

But think like this. If some miracle happens and Wood has a career year then thats almost the equivalent of making a big off-season trade, w/o even losing someone. If Miller has a semi good year (10-6 3.70 ERA) then thats like a semie-great off season signing. If we have Prior the whole season then theres a little lets get 5 more wins trade. If Jones is like 2001 theres a big aquisition. If Pierre, Howry and Eyre are what they are then theres 3 solid players added. If Cedeno and Murton are what they were last year then theres 2 more huge moves. Now looking at it like that thats probably the best off-season in a looooong time. And I dont think you realized how bad the Astros and Cards got injured this off-season. I would say that if we dont make 1st then we will onlt be a few games out. I honestly believe this year will be better than 2003. And FOX Sports rating the MArlins or Reds same or the better is complete BS.

[ZR56664]

I agree

I agree with you Cubsfan 97.
I think if their starters can stay healthy for most of the year then they do have a good chance at winning the division. I know it's hard to keep everyone healthy but they don't have Garciaparra so we know he wont be hurting the Cubs anymore. I actually look for the Cubs to break 90 wins this year. My prediction is that they will go 94-68. and get a wild card spot. I think the Cardinals will just edge them out of the division by 2 games.

[Lipsander]

Honestly, what were we missing last year? Runners on base in front of Derrick Lee and Aramis Ramirez......right? Juan Pierre getting on base an being his usual base stealing threat ought to produce big things for us.

[burger eater]

I think Howry and Eyre are an improvement over these two.



The Cubs did have to get a right fielder unless you wanted to throw Hairston out there or bring Burnitz back one more year. Jacque certainly wasn't the best RF available, but I'd take him over Burnitz, Reggie Sanders, Preston Wilson or Encarnacion.
I wouldn't pick the Cubs to win the division, but they look better than they were last year. Send Dusty off into the sunset and that would add 8-10 extra wins.

[Bob Sacamento]

But think like this. If some miracle happens and Wood has a career year then thats almost the equivalent of making a big off-season trade, w/o even losing someone. If Miller has a semi good year (10-6 3.70 ERA) then thats like a semie-great off season signing. If we have Prior the whole season then theres a little lets get 5 more wins trade. If Jones is like 2001 theres a big aquisition. If Pierre, Howry and Eyre are what they are then theres 3 solid players added. If Cedeno and Murton are what they were last year then theres 2 more huge moves.

That's a lot of IFs that we're dependent on.

[Bob Sacamento]

I think Howry and Eyre are an improvement over these two.

Over a 2005 Remmy and Hawkins, yes, but not over Remmy/Hawkins in their first seasons in Chicago. Eyre is a better lefty specialist than Remmy ever was, but he's not a better overall reliever. Hawkins was mis-signed (closer bonus/incentives) and mis-roled, setup man all the way and his numbers in non-save situations for the Cubs was great.

The Cubs did have to get a right fielder unless you wanted to throw Hairston out there or bring Burnitz back one more year. Jacque certainly wasn't the best RF available, but I'd take him over Burnitz, Reggie Sanders, Preston Wilson or Encarnacion.

I would have taken Sanders/Burny/Wilson for a 1 year deal before shelling out a 3 year deal on Jacque Jones. If a RF is going to hit .250, then he better hit with an OPS of .800 or greater. And a note that everyone keeps forgetting is that Jones puts up splits that make him a platoon player, he can't hit lefties, never has, never will.

Jones' Splits vs Lefties

Career .227/.277/.339/.616
2005 .201/.247/.370/.617
2004 .245/.328/.329/.657
2003 .269/.310/.393/.703
2002 .213/.259/.331/.590
2001 .182/.224/.200/.424
2000 .230/.269/.297/.567

I wouldn't pick the Cubs to win the division, but they look better than they were last year. Send Dusty off into the sunset and that would add 8-10 extra wins.

Better than what was expected from the players at the beginning of 2005? No, not even.

As for Dusty costing 8-10 games, no. The difference between a good-in game manager or a poor one, is 3-5 games at most. Put LaRussa at the Cubs helm and the end result will be the same, the Cubs not making the playoffs.

[burger eater]

Over a 2005 Remmy and Hawkins, yes, but not over Remmy/Hawkins in their first seasons in Chicago.

That's simply not true, Bob. Do you wish it was true? It's not, but I can understand if you wish it was. Howry & Eyre both had better years last year than Hawkins or Remlinger had in their best years as Cubs. Hawkins stunk the joint up last year and did more of the same for the Giants.
Remlinger is done.

Jones can't hit lefties. Neither can Burnitz. Sanders is 38 years old and coming off an injury. Preston Wilson has knee problems. Jacque's contract is certainly movable if the Cubs want to trade him after 2006.

Better than what was expected from the players at the beginning of 2005? No, not even.

Better than who expected? You?... maybe. I expected Nomar to get injured, Hollandsworth to prove he wasn't a full time player and Corey to be as streaky as he's always been.
I hoped for the best, but I thought last year's team looked all-around weaker than the 2006 roster looks.

As for Dusty costing 8-10 games, no. The difference between a good-in game manager or a poor one, is 3-5 games at most. Put LaRussa at the Cubs helm and the end result will be the same, the Cubs not making the playoffs.

It can't be proven how many games Dusty cost the Cubs last year, but 3-5 is an extremely conservative estimate. Lee was having an MVP year and Dusty stood by helplessly with his thumb in his ass while he put the 2 worst OBP guys in front of him for over 600 AB's.
Corey/Neifi at the top of the order, Hawkins as closer, Dempster in the rotation, Rusch in the pen, the usual mishandling of the bullpen. All evidence that Dusty is a major liability.

[weatherdood]

That's a lot of IFs that we're dependent on.

I couldn't agree more. Trust me, I'd love nothing more than to see it happen...but we're just asking too much from too many unknowns. I think Murton and Cedeno will have "nice" seasons, but I just don't see it being enough to push us over the top.

Secondly, up the middle (C/2B/SS/CF), we're arguably one of the weakest teams in the majors... Barrett is average to slightly above average offensively, but quite honestly, calls a poor game behind the plate. Look at pitchers ERAs last year when Barrett was behind the plate compared to Blanco. I want to say it was something like one run per game difference! I'm sorry, but Barrett does not produce a run a game offensively to make up for that.

Cedeno is going to be good someday, but I can't put that much faith in an unproven commodity

Hairston/Perez are good utility players, but substandard everyday players.. See: Todd Hollandsworth. Walker is my choice at 2B but I don't think he'll see a pitch as a Cub this year.

Pierre is a definite upgrade over CP in CF, but as Bob has said on many occasions, he's a bit overrated. I wouldn't go as far as to call him one of the most overrated players in the game, but I think he gets a little more credit than he is due. He's going to get on base a lot more than CP, which is obviously a good thing....but there's still nobody, other than Todd Walker that I could trust in the #2 hole to move Pierre over to set up the big boys. But given the Cubs' lack of a vote of confidence in Walker, I don't have a good feeling myself.

Hey, I'd love to look back on this in October and say I was dead wrong, but there are just too many questions with this team. I give Hendry a C for his offseason moves. He has addressed some of the question marks on this team, but unfortunately, has added a few different ones.

[Cubsfan97]

That's a lot of IFs that we're dependent on.

What else do we have though?

[Bob Sacamento]

That's simply not true, Bob. Do you wish it was true? It's not, but I can understand if you wish it was. Howry & Eyre both had better years last year than Hawkins or Remlinger had in their best years as Cubs. Hawkins stunk the joint up last year and did more of the same for the Giants.
Remlinger is done.

When the Cubs signed Hawkins from the Twins, he has very similar stats as Howry before joining the Cubs and the same goes for Eyre and Remlinger.

Player Year Team Age G IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
Hawkins 2003 Twins 31 74 77.1 69 20 16 4 15 75 1.86 1.09 .239
Howry 2005 Indians 32 79 73.0 49 23 20 4 16 48 2.47 0.89 .191

Player Year Team Age G IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
Remlinger 2002 Braves 37 73 68.0 48 17 15 3 28 69 1.99 1.12 .198
Eyre 2005 Giants 33 86 68.1 48 21 20 3 26 65 2.63 1.08 .200

As for Hawkins and Remlinger first years as a Cub, fans can only hope that Eyre and Howry do as well in the first year.

Player Year Team G GS W L SV CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
Hawkins 2004 Cubs 77 0 5 4 25 0 0 82.0 72 27 24 10 14 69 2.63 1.05 .233
Remlinger 2003 Cubs 73 0 6 5 0 0 0 69.0 54 30 28 11 39 83 3.65 1.35 .211

It's the following years that were deal breakers and caused both of them to be shipped out.

Jones can't hit lefties. Neither can Burnitz. Sanders is 38 years old and coming off an injury. Preston Wilson has knee problems. Jacque's contract is certainly movable if the Cubs want to trade him after 2006.

I'd still take an injury risk in Wilson or Sanders for a year before shelling out a guarenteed 3 years on Jones, were his contract escalates.

2005 Burnitz vs Jones against Lefties

Burny .236/.268/.445/.713
Jones .201/.247/.370/.617

Career-wise

Burny .242/.320/.448/.767
Jones .227/.277/.339/.616

Better than who expected? You?... maybe. I expected Nomar to get injured, Hollandsworth to prove he wasn't a full time player and Corey to be as streaky as he's always been. I hoped for the best, but I thought last year's team looked all-around weaker than the 2006 roster looks.

Most analysts had the 2005 Cubs to challenge the Cardinals for the Central and at least make a valiant run at the playoffs, if not win the wildcard. Of course, like in 2003 and 2004, we were heavily dependent on our rotation to take us to the promised land, and when one or two of your "messiahs" go out for long durations, it puts increased stress on the pen and the offense, not too mention the AAA starters that filled in.

It can't be proven how many games Dusty cost the Cubs last year, but 3-5 is an extremely conservative estimate. Lee was having an MVP year and Dusty stood by helplessly with his thumb in his ass while he put the 2 worst OBP guys in front of him for over 600 AB's.

Corey and Neifi were 1st and 2nd in the order by default as of injury. I've stated before Hairston and Walker started nearly as much as CP/Neifi with similiar results in the lineup hitting in front of D.Lee, too bad neither Jerry nor Todd could stay healthy.

Batting 1st

Players G BA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB/SBO AVG OBP SLG OPS
CP/Perez 58 242 25 56 8 1 6 20 10 45 6/9 .231 .262 .347 .609
Hairston 78 306 43 81 22 1 4 28 29 36 8/16 .265 .344 .382 .726


Batting 2nd

Players G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB/SBO AVG OBP SLG OPS
CP/Perez 83 346 40 89 15 2 9 30 10 45 9/11 .257 .278 .390 .668
Hairston/Walker 69 275 40 77 15 2 11 30 21 24 1/2 .280 .331 .469 .800

Overall between 1st/2nd

Between Walker/Hairston 147 581 83 158 37 3 15 58 50 60 9/18 .272 .330 .420 .750
Between Patterson/Neifi 141 588 65 145 23 3 15 50 20 90 15/20 .247 .271 .372 .643

Corey/Neifi at the top of the order, Hawkins as closer, Dempster in the rotation, Rusch in the pen, the usual mishandling of the bullpen. All evidence that Dusty is a major liability.

Corey and Neifi were the best "alternatives" left as everyday starters beyond Hairston and Walker (both were down with significant injury times) at leading off and batting second. Hawkins was the closer to start with but like in 2004 he faulted under one run pressures. Dempster started in the rotation due to the "handshake agreement" he had with Hendry that he'd be used as a starter primary and reliever secondary. And the platoon with Holly/Dubois was Hendry's brainchild for the 2005 season, and it failed miserably.

Dusty could be the greatest "cook" in the world but if he's not given the "right ingredients" by management then the main course is going to come up subpar.