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a thread in which I share with you my personnel fantasy for next season

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  • nathanKent
    I went back and ran those cursory calculations again. It'd be closer to 5.5 runs/game, which translates into somewhere in the range of 820-830 runs on the season. This year that would have been good for 3rd in the NL and 1st in our division.

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  • a thread in which I share with you my personnel fantasy for next season

    Bring back Kenny Lofton. I'd love to see a big bat at SS just like everybody else, but mostly I want another small bat with awesome OBP. It could happen at SS, but we're unresolved at CF for next year and we've seen what he can do. Moreover, even at his advanced age he's still consistently having good seasons. His only down year was in 2004 as a Yankee, where he only played 79 games. The only other season where he started fewer than 110 was his rookie year, and on average he plays in 130 (136 this season), so I can write off his .275/.346 performance as being a reflection of too small a sample size.

    Just imagine going back to a leadoff hitter with a .370 OBP setting the table for three power hitters who also bat for high average. Think about the opposing pitcher's mindset. If he makes it out of the inning without putting one or two of them across the plate, he's probably still blown 20+ pitches in the process and almost inevitably given up his first hit or walk of the game already. When he comes back on in the 2nd inning he faces three .290-.300 smallball hitters in DeRosa, Murton, and Soto. His reprieve comes in the 3rd, pitching to the bottom of the rotation in the SS and pitcher, but Theriot isn't quite a slouch and neither is half of our pitching staff. Better yet, Theriot's high dollar, power hitting replacement is cleaning up for DeRosa and Soto in the 7 spot, and Murton, batting .297, is setting the table for a free-swinging Carlos Zambrano.

    The thought of that makes me happy. It's a total pipe dream, I'm sure, but it's one I've been carrying since December 2003.

    BTW, based mostly on last year's stats (I estimated .340 for Soto and .336 for Ward), weighting the eight starters for four plate appearances, the starting pitcher for two (using the average of the five starters), and pinch hits by Ward and Fontenot, my formula yields a .345 team OBP with that lineup. When (or if) I'm more motivated I'll run a sim based on OPS to determine run production. Looking at the numbers, I'd pencil in somewhere in the 6-6.5 range per game. We were at 4.94 last year, but with less streaky hitting courtesy of more consistent production at CF and C, that should yield a lot of games at 6 or 7, instead of a lot of games at 2 or 3 with a stat skewed by a handful of games at 12.

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