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  • Surprising Cubs predictions

    Heading into this season I initially thought this team doomed to mediocrity and the moves they made doing very little for their cause. One of the titles to a thread here caught my attention and I thought it was about the team. It turned out it wasn't so I decided to do a new thread. So here is my prediction for next year, but to do that one must first look back at the year before and the changes to it.

    It turns out that several spots in the lineup were just sinkholes. Now I know that isn't a shocker but I never realized how bad they were, and it also shows how little the Cubs have to do to improve even a little for this year. Meaning it doesn't the acquisition of Alex Rodriguez to improve upon a .307 OBP and .369 SLG. Simply getting a guy with a .330 OBP and .380 SLG would improve a spot tremendously. So there is reason for a good burst of offense even if some players decline from highs. AAAAAAAAAAAArgh!

    Got half way through my position by position recap and prediction when I accidently hit a delete button and lost most of it. Don't even feel like retyping it all.

    So heres a quick summary of what I think each position will do next year. Position-OBP/SLG
    Catcher: .320/.450
    1B: .380/.550
    2B: .330/.420
    3B: .355/.550
    SS: .320/.385
    LF: .340/.450
    CF: .340/.385
    RF: .320/.425
    PH: .300/.350

    Anyway last year the Cubs were absolutely horrible in CF, SS, and PH, and to some degree Right Field. This year with the transactions I think the Cubs will improve in all three and possibly stay the same in right field. The Cubs should lose ground at first and second, while slightly slipping at C, and either maintain or improve at third.

    Last year the team scored 703 runs, runs created says they should have scored around 780 runs. Part of the gap in runs and rc I think has to do with lineup construction and some severe black holes, with this prediction I think they should score about 820 runs but if we compensate for some Dustyism to seep into the lineup I would say that we should expect around 760 to 780 runs for this offense. I think one should expect a nice bounce back for this offense compared to last year.

    So what about the pitching and defense? Lets get the defense out of the way first. I would say that the defense is going to be about the same or perhaps slightly better. So that leaves the pitching, last year they allowed 714 runs to score, 671 earned. RC says that they should have allowed 691 runs to score, DIPS says 680 runs allowed. I would say that the Cubs are going to allow about 700 to 720 runs this year. Even with some question marks this isn't a staff that is likely to be bad, and it does have the possibility of being very good.

    So to sum it up I think the offense will score 760 to 780 runs with an outside chance of scoring over 800 runs. I think the pitching staff will allow 700 to 720 runs with a better chance to allow less then 700 then offense has to score more then 800. Best case scenario is 780-700, worst case 760-720. Using the pyth that puts the cubs wins between 85 to 89 wins. I personally think think the Cubs will do around the 780-700 mark and through a little luck hit the 90-91 win mark. Thats the hopeful side of me, the number cruncher in me sees around a 88-90 win season.

    Of course who knows what will happen during the season, injuries, trades, playing some players, not playing others, and so on. If Todd Walker gets traded for a bag of baseballs and they hand second base to Neifi I would lower the expect to wins down a good deal.

    So what do you think? How many wins do you think the Cubs will have.

  • #2
    I predict Dusty will fall in love with Neifi all over again. Dusty will get Grissom his at-bats...
    Dusty will make Hairston shine his shoes to earn playing time.

    CF - Pierre
    2B - Hairston/Neifi
    1B - Lee
    3B - Aramis
    who knows what Dusty will do after these 4 spots?
    Some order of:
    Grissom/Murton
    Barrett
    Jacque
    Cedeno
    pitcher
    5-8 will probably change on a daily basis. Jacque will probably get some AB's at cleanup.

    Walker will be traded. Neifi will get plenty of time at SS and get the rest at 2B. Hairston will get time at 2B except for days that Dusty wants Neifi in the lineup. Cedeno & Hairston won't be seen manning the middle infield at the same time very often.
    Grissom will get a few days in RF to rest Jacque... probably against righties. Grissom will get many starts in LF to "protect" Murton against whoever Dusty deems to be a good pitcher.
    The Cubs will have a 5 game winning streak sometime during the season, causing the organization to give Dusty a contract extension.
    beware of the censorship police

    Comment


    • #3
      I should say that I don't expect the run drop from expectation to be all Dusty only that the way this team is put together I think it will underperform its RC again this year, some of that is the style of hitters and some of it is Dusty.
      Dusty's teams tend to underperform according to their Run Created numbers. His teams and style tend to not reach what RC expects out of those numbers.

      Even if we look at BP's EqR his teams in recent years underperform by about 20 runs or so.

      Comment


      • #4
        Thats the pitching side but what about the hitting. It won't take much for this team to score more runs this year.

        Comment


        • #5
          Well I think I can safely throw this projection out now, what with Prior heading to the doc. How did a once promising and perhaps best young pitching staff fall so fast and so quickly without anyone doing anything about it?

          Defend the Clement-Willis trade all you want but its looking like one of the worst trades more and more.

          As for Prior kind of makes you wish Pohlad wasn't such a cheap-wad doesn't it? Could have had Teixiera if the Twins had drafted Prior instead. Then perhaps Hendry think he has extra arms to trade away.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Ubiquitous
            Well I think I can safely throw this projection out now, what with Prior heading to the doc. How did a once promising and perhaps best young pitching staff fall so fast and so quickly without anyone doing anything about it?

            Defend the Clement-Willis trade all you want but its looking like one of the worst trades more and more.

            As for Prior kind of makes you wish Pohlad wasn't such a cheap-wad doesn't it? Could have had Teixiera if the Twins had drafted Prior instead. Then perhaps Hendry think he has extra arms to trade away.
            i agree-let's never trade minor leaguers again in fear that they may turn out to be good someday-whether it be immediately or years later

            we don't know what is wrong so let's not jump to the conclusion he's out for any significant time automatically

            Comment


            • #7
              What if a team offers you a minor leaguer for a minor leaguer, you reject and the offered minor hits 30 home runs the next ten years or win the 3 Cy Youngs? Also, who which would you rather have, Teixera, with no Prior and possibly no 2003 or Prior with on/off injuries, D-Lee and a 2003?
              "I don't like to sound egotistical, but every time I stepped up to the plate with a bat in my hands, I couldn't help but feel sorry for the pitcher."
              -Rogers Hornsby-

              "People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
              -Rogers Hornsby-

              Just a note to all the active members of BBF, I consider all of you the smartest baseball people I have ever communicated with and love everyday I am on here. Thank you all!

              Comment


              • #8
                The year is not shaping up well for the Cubbies, but it is Spring, and Hope springs eternal. You never can tell when a team will catch lightning in a bottle.
                Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by burger eater
                  I predict Dusty will fall in love with Neifi all over again. Dusty will get Grissom his at-bats...
                  Dusty will make Hairston shine his shoes to earn playing time.

                  CF - Pierre
                  2B - Hairston/Neifi
                  1B - Lee
                  3B - Aramis
                  who knows what Dusty will do after these 4 spots?
                  Some order of:
                  Grissom/Murton
                  Barrett
                  Jacque
                  Cedeno
                  pitcher
                  5-8 will probably change on a daily basis. Jacque will probably get some AB's at cleanup.

                  Walker will be traded. Neifi will get plenty of time at SS and get the rest at 2B. Hairston will get time at 2B except for days that Dusty wants Neifi in the lineup. Cedeno & Hairston won't be seen manning the middle infield at the same time very often.
                  Grissom will get a few days in RF to rest Jacque... probably against righties. Grissom will get many starts in LF to "protect" Murton against whoever Dusty deems to be a good pitcher.
                  The Cubs will have a 5 game winning streak sometime during the season, causing the organization to give Dusty a contract extension.
                  I remain somewhat optimistic that this year is the end for Baker and Hendry Show.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by redwhitenblue
                    i agree-let's never trade minor leaguers again in fear that they may turn out to be good someday-whether it be immediately or years later

                    we don't know what is wrong so let's not jump to the conclusion he's out for any significant time automatically
                    It has nothing to do with fear. It was a stupid trade at the time. They gave away a quality arm for Antonio Alfonseca who isn't worth a quality arm. Cubs trade Willis for say Beltran and it doesn't work out, I would say "hey thats the breaks, we tried to get a good player he didn't play to that level and Willis, oh well" But that wasn't what happened here, Antonion was a known product, a mediocre product, and the cubs traded value to get him.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Cubsfan97
                      What if a team offers you a minor leaguer for a minor leaguer, you reject and the offered minor hits 30 home runs the next ten years or win the 3 Cy Youngs? Also, who which would you rather have, Teixera, with no Prior and possibly no 2003 or Prior with on/off injuries, D-Lee and a 2003?

                      I perfer Teixiera, Willis, and DLee. Teixiera was a third basemen, the Rangers moved him because they had Blalock ahead of him.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Ubiquitous
                        It has nothing to do with fear. It was a stupid trade at the time. They gave away a quality arm for Antonio Alfonseca who isn't worth a quality arm. Cubs trade Willis for say Beltran and it doesn't work out, I would say "hey thats the breaks, we tried to get a good player he didn't play to that level and Willis, oh well" But that wasn't what happened here, Antonion was a known product, a mediocre product, and the cubs traded value to get him.
                        willis wasn't a quality arm at that time, and we trade for alfonseca AND clement, dont' act like we only got alf out of it

                        don't act like you knew who willis was at the time bc very few KNEW of him and NOONE knew that he would go through the ranks so quickly, he wasn't even a prized arm at that time

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Ubiquitous
                          I perfer Teixiera, Willis, and DLee. Teixiera was a third basemen, the Rangers moved him because they had Blalock ahead of him.
                          oh please-this is a 100% bias on what you know will happen...again if i asked you in 2003 who you'd rather have you wouldn't know either way bc none of them were really big names...you say this all now but if we gave you the info before
                          Prior-college ace-supposedly best mechanics around-everyone knew he'd be to the big league soon

                          Willis-funky windup(commonly associated with injury risk)-high risk to lose command-unknown possibilities

                          and you tell me honestly you'd take willis then?...if so then you would have a pitching staff of one ace and 4 guys like him that never have any success and are always injured

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by redwhitenblue
                            willis wasn't a quality arm at that time, and we trade for alfonseca AND clement, dont' act like we only got alf out of it

                            don't act like you knew who willis was at the time bc very few KNEW of him and NOONE knew that he would go through the ranks so quickly, he wasn't even a prized arm at that time

                            Yes Willis was a quality arm, and it doesn't matter whether or not Willis ever did become a quality major leaguer. I was against this trade from the beginning even when I didn't know who Willis was or what he would become. The Cubs did not need and I did not want Antonio Alfonseca on the Cubs team and closing games for them. We got Clement but if you want to say you can't judge Willis by what he would do later then you can't judge Clement by what he did later. Clement was basically a throw in or forced on the Cubs. You want Alfonseca then you have to take Clement who was arb-eligible. The cubs did not think highly of Clement, they thought at best he would be a 5th starter and would definitely be a project. Nor was it like Clement was some great pitcher, he was good but he wasn't worth Willis.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by redwhitenblue
                              oh please-this is a 100% bias on what you know will happen...again if i asked you in 2003 who you'd rather have you wouldn't know either way bc none of them were really big names...you say this all now but if we gave you the info before
                              Prior-college ace-supposedly best mechanics around-everyone knew he'd be to the big league soon

                              Willis-funky windup(commonly associated with injury risk)-high risk to lose command-unknown possibilities

                              and you tell me honestly you'd take willis then?...if so then you would have a pitching staff of one ace and 4 guys like him that never have any success and are always injured

                              Apparently you didn't read what I said. I said:
                              As for Prior kind of makes you wish Pohlad wasn't such a cheap-wad doesn't it? Could have had Teixiera if the Twins had drafted Prior instead. Then perhaps Hendry think he has extra arms to trade away.
                              "Kind of makes you wish" That isn't me saying I always believed they shouldn't have had drafted Prior. Its me saying looking back on it now I wish they had drafted Mark T instead of Mark P.

                              If I did choose Willis then I would have Zambrano, Willis, Maddux, Wood, and insert name. Out of that rotation I would have only Wood as an injured pitcher. It isn't as simple as well he has a funky delivery therefore he is an injury risk. A different delivery doesn't mean he has poor mechanics.

                              Comment

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