Surprising Cubs predictions

[Ubiquitous]

Heading into this season I initially thought this team doomed to mediocrity and the moves they made doing very little for their cause. One of the titles to a thread here caught my attention and I thought it was about the team. It turned out it wasn't so I decided to do a new thread. So here is my prediction for next year, but to do that one must first look back at the year before and the changes to it.

It turns out that several spots in the lineup were just sinkholes. Now I know that isn't a shocker but I never realized how bad they were, and it also shows how little the Cubs have to do to improve even a little for this year. Meaning it doesn't the acquisition of Alex Rodriguez to improve upon a .307 OBP and .369 SLG. Simply getting a guy with a .330 OBP and .380 SLG would improve a spot tremendously. So there is reason for a good burst of offense even if some players decline from highs. AAAAAAAAAAAArgh!

Got half way through my position by position recap and prediction when I accidently hit a delete button and lost most of it. Don't even feel like retyping it all.

So heres a quick summary of what I think each position will do next year. Position-OBP/SLG
Catcher: .320/.450
1B: .380/.550
2B: .330/.420
3B: .355/.550
SS: .320/.385
LF: .340/.450
CF: .340/.385
RF: .320/.425
PH: .300/.350

Anyway last year the Cubs were absolutely horrible in CF, SS, and PH, and to some degree Right Field. This year with the transactions I think the Cubs will improve in all three and possibly stay the same in right field. The Cubs should lose ground at first and second, while slightly slipping at C, and either maintain or improve at third.

Last year the team scored 703 runs, runs created says they should have scored around 780 runs. Part of the gap in runs and rc I think has to do with lineup construction and some severe black holes, with this prediction I think they should score about 820 runs but if we compensate for some Dustyism to seep into the lineup I would say that we should expect around 760 to 780 runs for this offense. I think one should expect a nice bounce back for this offense compared to last year.

So what about the pitching and defense? Lets get the defense out of the way first. I would say that the defense is going to be about the same or perhaps slightly better. So that leaves the pitching, last year they allowed 714 runs to score, 671 earned. RC says that they should have allowed 691 runs to score, DIPS says 680 runs allowed. I would say that the Cubs are going to allow about 700 to 720 runs this year. Even with some question marks this isn't a staff that is likely to be bad, and it does have the possibility of being very good.

So to sum it up I think the offense will score 760 to 780 runs with an outside chance of scoring over 800 runs. I think the pitching staff will allow 700 to 720 runs with a better chance to allow less then 700 then offense has to score more then 800. Best case scenario is 780-700, worst case 760-720. Using the pyth that puts the cubs wins between 85 to 89 wins. I personally think think the Cubs will do around the 780-700 mark and through a little luck hit the 90-91 win mark. Thats the hopeful side of me, the number cruncher in me sees around a 88-90 win season.

Of course who knows what will happen during the season, injuries, trades, playing some players, not playing others, and so on. If Todd Walker gets traded for a bag of baseballs and they hand second base to Neifi I would lower the expect to wins down a good deal.

So what do you think? How many wins do you think the Cubs will have.

[burger eater]

I predict Dusty will fall in love with Neifi all over again. Dusty will get Grissom his at-bats...
Dusty will make Hairston shine his shoes to earn playing time.

CF - Pierre
2B - Hairston/Neifi
1B - Lee
3B - Aramis
who knows what Dusty will do after these 4 spots?
Some order of:
Grissom/Murton
Barrett
Jacque
Cedeno
pitcher
5-8 will probably change on a daily basis. Jacque will probably get some AB's at cleanup.

Walker will be traded. Neifi will get plenty of time at SS and get the rest at 2B. Hairston will get time at 2B except for days that Dusty wants Neifi in the lineup. Cedeno & Hairston won't be seen manning the middle infield at the same time very often.
Grissom will get a few days in RF to rest Jacque... probably against righties. Grissom will get many starts in LF to "protect" Murton against whoever Dusty deems to be a good pitcher.
The Cubs will have a 5 game winning streak sometime during the season, causing the organization to give Dusty a contract extension.

[Ubiquitous]

I should say that I don't expect the run drop from expectation to be all Dusty only that the way this team is put together I think it will underperform its RC again this year, some of that is the style of hitters and some of it is Dusty.
Dusty's teams tend to underperform according to their Run Created numbers. His teams and style tend to not reach what RC expects out of those numbers.

Even if we look at BP's EqR his teams in recent years underperform by about 20 runs or so.

[Ubiquitous]

Thats the pitching side but what about the hitting. It won't take much for this team to score more runs this year.

[Ubiquitous]

Well I think I can safely throw this projection out now, what with Prior heading to the doc. How did a once promising and perhaps best young pitching staff fall so fast and so quickly without anyone doing anything about it?

Defend the Clement-Willis trade all you want but its looking like one of the worst trades more and more.

As for Prior kind of makes you wish Pohlad wasn't such a cheap-wad doesn't it? Could have had Teixiera if the Twins had drafted Prior instead. Then perhaps Hendry think he has extra arms to trade away.

[redwhitenblue]

Well I think I can safely throw this projection out now, what with Prior heading to the doc. How did a once promising and perhaps best young pitching staff fall so fast and so quickly without anyone doing anything about it?

Defend the Clement-Willis trade all you want but its looking like one of the worst trades more and more.

As for Prior kind of makes you wish Pohlad wasn't such a cheap-wad doesn't it? Could have had Teixiera if the Twins had drafted Prior instead. Then perhaps Hendry think he has extra arms to trade away.

i agree-let's never trade minor leaguers again in fear that they may turn out to be good someday-whether it be immediately or years later

we don't know what is wrong so let's not jump to the conclusion he's out for any significant time automatically

[Cubsfan97]

What if a team offers you a minor leaguer for a minor leaguer, you reject and the offered minor hits 30 home runs the next ten years or win the 3 Cy Youngs? Also, who which would you rather have, Teixera, with no Prior and possibly no 2003 or Prior with on/off injuries, D-Lee and a 2003?

[KCGHOST]

The year is not shaping up well for the Cubbies, but it is Spring, and Hope springs eternal. You never can tell when a team will catch lightning in a bottle.

[Uncle Dak]

I predict Dusty will fall in love with Neifi all over again. Dusty will get Grissom his at-bats...
Dusty will make Hairston shine his shoes to earn playing time.

CF - Pierre
2B - Hairston/Neifi
1B - Lee
3B - Aramis
who knows what Dusty will do after these 4 spots?
Some order of:
Grissom/Murton
Barrett
Jacque
Cedeno
pitcher
5-8 will probably change on a daily basis. Jacque will probably get some AB's at cleanup.

Walker will be traded. Neifi will get plenty of time at SS and get the rest at 2B. Hairston will get time at 2B except for days that Dusty wants Neifi in the lineup. Cedeno & Hairston won't be seen manning the middle infield at the same time very often.
Grissom will get a few days in RF to rest Jacque... probably against righties. Grissom will get many starts in LF to "protect" Murton against whoever Dusty deems to be a good pitcher.
The Cubs will have a 5 game winning streak sometime during the season, causing the organization to give Dusty a contract extension.

I remain somewhat optimistic that this year is the end for Baker and Hendry Show.

[Ubiquitous]

i agree-let's never trade minor leaguers again in fear that they may turn out to be good someday-whether it be immediately or years later

we don't know what is wrong so let's not jump to the conclusion he's out for any significant time automatically

It has nothing to do with fear. It was a stupid trade at the time. They gave away a quality arm for Antonio Alfonseca who isn't worth a quality arm. Cubs trade Willis for say Beltran and it doesn't work out, I would say "hey thats the breaks, we tried to get a good player he didn't play to that level and Willis, oh well" But that wasn't what happened here, Antonion was a known product, a mediocre product, and the cubs traded value to get him.

[Ubiquitous]

What if a team offers you a minor leaguer for a minor leaguer, you reject and the offered minor hits 30 home runs the next ten years or win the 3 Cy Youngs? Also, who which would you rather have, Teixera, with no Prior and possibly no 2003 or Prior with on/off injuries, D-Lee and a 2003?

I perfer Teixiera, Willis, and DLee. Teixiera was a third basemen, the Rangers moved him because they had Blalock ahead of him.

[redwhitenblue]

It has nothing to do with fear. It was a stupid trade at the time. They gave away a quality arm for Antonio Alfonseca who isn't worth a quality arm. Cubs trade Willis for say Beltran and it doesn't work out, I would say "hey thats the breaks, we tried to get a good player he didn't play to that level and Willis, oh well" But that wasn't what happened here, Antonion was a known product, a mediocre product, and the cubs traded value to get him.

willis wasn't a quality arm at that time, and we trade for alfonseca AND clement, dont' act like we only got alf out of it

don't act like you knew who willis was at the time bc very few KNEW of him and NOONE knew that he would go through the ranks so quickly, he wasn't even a prized arm at that time

[redwhitenblue]

I perfer Teixiera, Willis, and DLee. Teixiera was a third basemen, the Rangers moved him because they had Blalock ahead of him.

oh please-this is a 100% bias on what you know will happen...again if i asked you in 2003 who you'd rather have you wouldn't know either way bc none of them were really big names...you say this all now but if we gave you the info before
Prior-college ace-supposedly best mechanics around-everyone knew he'd be to the big league soon

Willis-funky windup(commonly associated with injury risk)-high risk to lose command-unknown possibilities

and you tell me honestly you'd take willis then?...if so then you would have a pitching staff of one ace and 4 guys like him that never have any success and are always injured

[Ubiquitous]

willis wasn't a quality arm at that time, and we trade for alfonseca AND clement, dont' act like we only got alf out of it

don't act like you knew who willis was at the time bc very few KNEW of him and NOONE knew that he would go through the ranks so quickly, he wasn't even a prized arm at that time

Yes Willis was a quality arm, and it doesn't matter whether or not Willis ever did become a quality major leaguer. I was against this trade from the beginning even when I didn't know who Willis was or what he would become. The Cubs did not need and I did not want Antonio Alfonseca on the Cubs team and closing games for them. We got Clement but if you want to say you can't judge Willis by what he would do later then you can't judge Clement by what he did later. Clement was basically a throw in or forced on the Cubs. You want Alfonseca then you have to take Clement who was arb-eligible. The cubs did not think highly of Clement, they thought at best he would be a 5th starter and would definitely be a project. Nor was it like Clement was some great pitcher, he was good but he wasn't worth Willis.

[Ubiquitous]

oh please-this is a 100% bias on what you know will happen...again if i asked you in 2003 who you'd rather have you wouldn't know either way bc none of them were really big names...you say this all now but if we gave you the info before
Prior-college ace-supposedly best mechanics around-everyone knew he'd be to the big league soon

Willis-funky windup(commonly associated with injury risk)-high risk to lose command-unknown possibilities

and you tell me honestly you'd take willis then?...if so then you would have a pitching staff of one ace and 4 guys like him that never have any success and are always injured

Apparently you didn't read what I said. I said:

As for Prior kind of makes you wish Pohlad wasn't such a cheap-wad doesn't it? Could have had Teixiera if the Twins had drafted Prior instead. Then perhaps Hendry think he has extra arms to trade away.

"Kind of makes you wish" That isn't me saying I always believed they shouldn't have had drafted Prior. Its me saying looking back on it now I wish they had drafted Mark T instead of Mark P.

If I did choose Willis then I would have Zambrano, Willis, Maddux, Wood, and insert name. Out of that rotation I would have only Wood as an injured pitcher. It isn't as simple as well he has a funky delivery therefore he is an injury risk. A different delivery doesn't mean he has poor mechanics.