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  • Trade Idea?

    I usually hate trade ideas, because most of them are unrealistic. Maybe this one is too. But if the Cubs cannot sign Fukudome, what about pursuing another Japanese player: Hideki Matsui?

    Apparently the Yankees want to move him. He is expensive, but the Cubs would take on payroll anyway with Fukudome. Apparently the Yankees want a pitcher, but not a top-flight starter, someone along the lines of Noah Lowry. If that's what they are looking for, I imagine Sean Marshall would do it.

    He is left-handed, and a pretty darn good hitter. The biggest issue with this idea is defense, since he is really a left-fielder. Can Soriano play right? He certainly threw alot of guys out last year, and has a decent arm, maybe he can make the transition now with some outfield experience? Plus, if the Cubs are considering Ibanez, I can't imagine Matsui is any worse than him.

    Anyway, am I off base here?

  • #2
    He has a full no-trade, so he'd have to waive it. There's no reason to believe he'd want to come to Chicago--I suspect most Japanese players don't. They usually prefer the Yankees or a west coast team.

    Overall, he's a good player, but he's past his prime and will only get worse. His defense is horrible, which further takes away some of his value. $13 million for his declining skills is a lot to pay. Plus, you'd have to give up decent talent for him. My guess is that Yankees would probably want at least a very good bullpen arm--maybe Howry or Marmol.

    I just don't see the improvement he brings over Murton or Fuld worth giving up good pitching and $13 million per. Baseball Prospectus projects Murton at roughly .295/.356/.454 for 2008 (projections are stale, as they haven't factored this year's results) and Matsui at .291/.383/.487, but with worse defense. This translates to a projected WARP of 3.7 for Murton vs. 3.3 for Matsui (incidentally, the guy I really want, Matt Kemp, is projected to be around 5 WARP for the next few years, which I actually think is low for Kemp). Baseball Prospectus's projections have obviously been off before, but I think that the projections on average have been pretty good as far as projections go.

    Also, I think this whole notion of getting a lefty bat is overblown. Murton hits righties well enough, and has always and will continue to hit at least 700 OPS against righties--in 2006, the closest he's had to a full season, he hit 782 OPS against righties. I wouldn't be surprised if with consistent playing time, you'll see him hit right around 800 OPS vs righties going forward.
    Last edited by Scartissue; 12-08-2007, 03:21 PM.
    To offset some of the pain of being a diehard Cubs fan, I've learned to also be a moderate Yankees fan.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Scartissue View Post
      He has a full no-trade, so he'd have to waive it. There's no reason to believe he'd want to come to Chicago--I suspect most Japanese players don't. They usually prefer the Yankees or a west coast team.

      Overall, he's a good player, but he's past his prime and will only get worse. His defense is horrible, which further takes away some of his value. $13 million for his declining skills is a lot to pay. Plus, you'd have to give up decent talent for him. My guess is that Yankees would probably want at least a very good bullpen arm--maybe Howry or Marmol.

      I just don't see the improvement he brings over Murton or Fuld worth giving up good pitching and $13 million per. Baseball Prospectus projects Murton at roughly .295/.356/.454 for 2008 (projections are stale, as they haven't factored this year's results) and Matsui at .291/.383/.487, but with worse defense. This translates to a projected WARP of 3.7 for Murton vs. 3.3 for Matsui (incidentally, the guy I really want, Matt Kemp, is projected to be around 5 WARP for the next few years, which I actually think is low for Kemp). Baseball Prospectus's projections have obviously been off before, but I think that the projections on average have been pretty good as far as projections go.

      Also, I think this whole notion of getting a lefty bat is overblown. Murton hits righties well enough, and has always and will continue to hit at least 700 OPS against righties--in 2006, the closest he's had to a full season, he hit 782 OPS against righties. I wouldn't be surprised if with consistent playing time, you'll see him hit right around 800 OPS vs righties going forward.
      I wish Hendry and Piniella felt that way too. I think we'd be foolish to dump a guy like Murton. Sacrilege it may be, but I'd sooner look to replace Pie.
      Senior Editor/Featured Writer for Home Of The Chiefs

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      • #4
        Santana too much $

        It's too bad Santana wants so much money. 20mil a year for 7 years? A lot of dough but considering pitching could be called 75% of the game, isn't he worth it? Petit apparently doesn't think so. Wonder how much Clemens will want now that he's on the Mitchell report

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        • #5
          I'm wondering if Clemens is even coming back next year.
          Your luck has expired. Please purchase new luck.

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