The former LSU star did well in the opening spring training game. do y'all think he can keep it up over the season to stay in the starting lineup?
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No, I don't think he can bat 1.000 for the season.Senior Editor/Featured Writer for Home Of The Chiefs
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Originally posted by GeauxCubs View PostThe former LSU star did well in the opening spring training game. do y'all think he can keep it up over the season to stay in the starting lineup?
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Originally posted by Hack_Miller View PostHe had a great first ST game but I'm doubtful he'll be even be league average with the bat for the entire season. That said he's right now the best option the Cubs have at SS so I think unless he falls off the face of the earth offensively, he stays in the lineup.
Theriot is the worst overall SS, defensively and offensively, in all of baseball. Great he has fundamentals and speed that spells utility player not starting SS. Theriot doesn’t play close a stellar defensive SS and his bat is average at best. He's often compared to Eckstein, that’s about right and before Theriot came along Eckstein was the worst overall SS in the show. Fans give too much credit for the “gritty” “hardnosed” player, they don’t change the outcome of the game. When someone calls you gritty, 9 times out of 10 it’s covert for lacks talent.
What we saw out of Theriot in 2007 is what you get, there is NO upside in fact it’s very likely to see a downside. Everyday of the week, I’ll take a 25yo with a great glove, a .600 OPS, and huge upside over a 28yo with a below average glove , a .680 OPS and no upside.Last edited by Bob Sacamento; 02-29-2008, 11:52 AM.What a Batted Ball is Worth (in terms of a run):
Line Drive: .356
HBP: .342
Non-Intentional Walk: .315
Intentional Walk: .176
Outfield Fly: .035
Groundball: -.101
Bunts: -.103
Infield Fly: -.243
Strikeout: -.287
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Originally posted by Bob Sacamento View PostI'm going to open up a huge can of worms but oh well...
Theriot is the worst overall SS, defensively and offensively, in all of baseball. Great he has fundamentals and speed that spells utility player not starting SS. Theriot doesn’t play close a stellar defensive SS and his bat is average at best. He's often compared to Eckstein, that’s about right and before Theriot came along Eckstein was the worst overall SS in the show. Fans give too much credit for the “gritty” “hardnosed” player, they don’t change the outcome of the game. When someone calls you gritty, 9 times out of 10 it’s covert for lacks talent.
Originally posted by Bob Sacamento View PostEveryday of the week, I’ll take a 25yo with a great glove, a .600 OPS, and huge upside over a 28yo with a below average glove , a .680 OPS and no upside.
Theroit is below average as a starting shortstop, I agree but I'm afraid the Cubs know that Cedeno is as well. It would seem that the Cubs have two above-average utility players.
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Originally posted by Hack_Miller View PostI'm assuming you mean Cedeno? Other than his athleticism and his inability to hit ML pitching what is it that you've seen that would be gained by inserting his .600 OPS with poor base-running skills into the starting lineup? Look at his defensive stats when he played, he isn't that great.
Dusty had set up Cedeno to be the SS of the future, despite all the knocks on Baker, he knows how important defense is at a key position such as SS and CF and he took his licks for starting defensive orientated players with struggling bats (from Perez to Patterson). Then Lou comes to town, and he starts the position as a “clean slate” but early on it was known his love for Theriot’s hussle and fundamental play. Pinella was looking for anyway to get the “gritty” player in the game. As a manager who usually doesn’t show favorites, Lou definitely had his favorite in Theriot and gave him every opportunity possible even when he was struggling. While Cedeno was in AAA destroying pitching and showing a very skilled and more disciplined bat. Ronny is ready for a fulltime starting gig, Baker got his feet wet at a very young age because he saw huge potential in the kid and it was time for him to grow on the MLB level. Unfortunately, Lou doesn’t operate that way, he wants what’s hot today (despite the age and upside- Pinella is more of a veteran-centered manager than Baker) and for that reason we might see a large flux of our prospects getting pushed back repeating levels, traded or all together lose any value.
Theroit is below average as a starting shortstop, I agree but I'm afraid the Cubs know that Cedeno is as well. It would seem that the Cubs have two above-average utility players.
Hardball Times has Theriot with fewer Win Shares than 21 other shortstops. Folks, that’s not even average. His EqA is .245, whereas average is .270. Baseball Prospectus has him at 2.1 WARP, despite playing a full season. I find it interesting that his actual 2.1 WARP is exactly the PECOTA predicted WARP for 2007–he’s predictably bad. His fielding is rated -7 from the average player by BP. 29 other SS made more plays out of their range (including Jeter) than Theriot. Theriot’s only saving grace is that he’s decent within SS range, fielding a respectable .858 of balls within SS range. Cedeno is not likely to be an all-star, but he doesn’t have to be to be better than Theriot. BP projects him to have greater impact.What a Batted Ball is Worth (in terms of a run):
Line Drive: .356
HBP: .342
Non-Intentional Walk: .315
Intentional Walk: .176
Outfield Fly: .035
Groundball: -.101
Bunts: -.103
Infield Fly: -.243
Strikeout: -.287
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Originally posted by Yankeebiscuitfan View PostIs he really that bad? I remember him as a decent player in the games that I saw on TV. There was even one game where he went 4-5, if my memory serves me well.What a Batted Ball is Worth (in terms of a run):
Line Drive: .356
HBP: .342
Non-Intentional Walk: .315
Intentional Walk: .176
Outfield Fly: .035
Groundball: -.101
Bunts: -.103
Infield Fly: -.243
Strikeout: -.287
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Originally posted by Bob Sacamento View Post
Cedeno in 2006 was an above average defender at SS at the tender age of23 years old.
I've found no statistical evidence to back this up. Neither the base fielding stats nor the more sabermetric inclined stats from the THT bear this out.
Not sure if this link will work but you can recreate the search easily....
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstat...&Submit=Submit
As for the generic stats he had a below average range factor and fielding %. I don't think either of those tell us much about how good he is but the THT stats sure say he wasn't even average.
Coming into this ST Cedeno has a suspect bat and I don't see statistical proof that his defense is measurably better than Theriots' weak defense. I'm all for giving Cedeno every chance to win the job and I hope Lou will but until he proves he can be the guy he's not going to be handed the job.
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Originally posted by Hack_Miller View Post
I've found no statistical evidence to back this up. Neither the base fielding stats nor the more sabermetric inclined stats from the THT bear this out.
Not sure if this link will work but you can recreate the search easily....
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstat...&Submit=Submit
As for the generic stats he had a below average range factor and fielding %. I don't think either of those tell us much about how good he is but the THT stats sure say he wasn't even average.Last edited by Bob Sacamento; 02-29-2008, 10:16 PM.What a Batted Ball is Worth (in terms of a run):
Line Drive: .356
HBP: .342
Non-Intentional Walk: .315
Intentional Walk: .176
Outfield Fly: .035
Groundball: -.101
Bunts: -.103
Infield Fly: -.243
Strikeout: -.287
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Originally posted by Bob Sacamento View PostAccording to Baseball Prospectus, Theriot cost us -7 runs compared to the average SS in 2007 as for Cedeno in 2006 saved us 2 runs compared to the average SS in 2006.
We could go round and round indefinitely with this but I'll leave it at this. Until Cedeno can create even league average runs at shortstop, the defensive benefits he may possess don't offset his liability with his bat. If he can get his bat to Theriot's level, which isn't saying much, I believe he's the starting shortstop.
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Bob, I think you know I have the utmost respect for your knowledge and understanding of the game, and a big part of why I come to this board is to read what you write. I'm a football stats guy, and as a fellow stats guy I know exactly how much it irks me when people make uninformed statements like I'm about to make....
I really dislike Cedeno. Every year I try my best to find a little faith in the guy, but every year what I see is a guy who cannot get it done at the plate, and I don't see any signs of improvement. I'm not a big fan of Theriot either, and I believe you when you say he's reached maximum potential. But to my eyes he at least looks competent, whereas Cedeno looks lost. When you state that Theriot is worth -7 runs and Cedeno is +2 compared to other shortstops, I don't doubt for a second that that's correct. I just know what I see with my eyes, and my eyes consistently tell me that a Ronnie Cedeno AB is either going to be an excruciatingly slow minute and a half, or a perfect time to pay a visit to the facilities.Senior Editor/Featured Writer for Home Of The Chiefs
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I don't think some of you guys know the value of having a good defensive SS on your team. Sure it might be 9 runs by the stats, but it's much more than that. Think of all the double plays, a blooper that could've been caught, balls that went through between 3B and SS. I could go on and on with this stuff.
I much rather have Cedeno playing SS than Theriot (lets make this clear, I'm not a big fan of Cedeno, but i'm not a fan at all of Theriot)... esp. with A Ram at 3B whose range is a step and dive so it's even more important to have a defensive player at SS. Being a "gritty and hard worker" is an excuse or a cover up of just how bad he is. I'm with Bob on this one. With Cedeno, his bat can only improve cuz man... you really can't get worse than that. Also his defense will improve as well, IMO. Same thing applies with Pie."Back before I injured my hip, I thought going to the gym was for wimps."
Bo Jackson
Actually, I think they were about the same because I lettered in all sports, and I was a two-time state decathlon champion.
Bo Jackson
My sophomore year I placed 2nd, and my junior and senior year - I got smart and piled up enough points between myself and second place where I didn't have to run the mile.
Bo Jackson
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