Theriot

[GeauxCubs]

The former LSU star did well in the opening spring training game. do y'all think he can keep it up over the season to stay in the starting lineup?

[Hack_Miller]

He had a great first ST game but I'm doubtful he'll be even be league average with the bat for the entire season. That said he's right now the best option the Cubs have at SS so I think unless he falls off the face of the earth offensively, he stays in the lineup.

[nathanKent]

No, I don't think he can bat 1.000 for the season.

[Yankeebiscuitfan]

The former LSU star did well in the opening spring training game. do y'all think he can keep it up over the season to stay in the starting lineup?

Why not? The games I have seen him play in, he did very well. Unless he is underachieving, the Cubs would be crazy to demote him.

[Bob Sacamento]

He had a great first ST game but I'm doubtful he'll be even be league average with the bat for the entire season. That said he's right now the best option the Cubs have at SS so I think unless he falls off the face of the earth offensively, he stays in the lineup.

I'm going to open up a huge can of worms but oh well...

Theriot is the worst overall SS, defensively and offensively, in all of baseball. Great he has fundamentals and speed that spells utility player not starting SS. Theriot doesn’t play close a stellar defensive SS and his bat is average at best. He's often compared to Eckstein, that’s about right and before Theriot came along Eckstein was the worst overall SS in the show. Fans give too much credit for the “gritty” “hardnosed” player, they don’t change the outcome of the game. When someone calls you gritty, 9 times out of 10 it’s covert for lacks talent.

What we saw out of Theriot in 2007 is what you get, there is NO upside in fact it’s very likely to see a downside. Everyday of the week, I’ll take a 25yo with a great glove, a .600 OPS, and huge upside over a 28yo with a below average glove , a .680 OPS and no upside.

[Hack_Miller]

I'm going to open up a huge can of worms but oh well...

Theriot is the worst overall SS, defensively and offensively, in all of baseball. Great he has fundamentals and speed that spells utility player not starting SS. Theriot doesn’t play close a stellar defensive SS and his bat is average at best. He's often compared to Eckstein, that’s about right and before Theriot came along Eckstein was the worst overall SS in the show. Fans give too much credit for the “gritty” “hardnosed” player, they don’t change the outcome of the game. When someone calls you gritty, 9 times out of 10 it’s covert for lacks talent.

Since you quoted my post as stirring defense of Theriot, I take it you misunderstood what I was saying. Actually we agree for the most part. I don't think Theriot is great by any stretch and yes there are far better options in the Majors but no necessarily on the Cubs roster.

Everyday of the week, I’ll take a 25yo with a great glove, a .600 OPS, and huge upside over a 28yo with a below average glove , a .680 OPS and no upside.

I'm assuming you mean Cedeno? Other than his athleticism and his inability to hit ML pitching what is it that you've seen that would be gained by inserting his .600 OPS with poor base-running skills into the starting lineup? Look at his defensive stats when he played, he isn't that great.

Theroit is below average as a starting shortstop, I agree but I'm afraid the Cubs know that Cedeno is as well. It would seem that the Cubs have two above-average utility players.

[Bob Sacamento]

I'm assuming you mean Cedeno? Other than his athleticism and his inability to hit ML pitching what is it that you've seen that would be gained by inserting his .600 OPS with poor base-running skills into the starting lineup? Look at his defensive stats when he played, he isn't that great.

Cedeno just turned 25 years old a few weeks ago,and still has a world of offensive upside while already playing a very good defensive SS. While Theriot is 28 years old and is a finished product offensively and defensively, what you see is what you get and next year will be the same results except with more playing time, his numbers are likely to drop more than improve. At 23 years old, Ronny was starting in the MLB, granted he struggled in his first full go around but he impressed alot of scouts and GMs. When Theriot was 23yo, he was splitting time between high A and AA and struggling there.

Dusty had set up Cedeno to be the SS of the future, despite all the knocks on Baker, he knows how important defense is at a key position such as SS and CF and he took his licks for starting defensive orientated players with struggling bats (from Perez to Patterson). Then Lou comes to town, and he starts the position as a “clean slate” but early on it was known his love for Theriot’s hussle and fundamental play. Pinella was looking for anyway to get the “gritty” player in the game. As a manager who usually doesn’t show favorites, Lou definitely had his favorite in Theriot and gave him every opportunity possible even when he was struggling. While Cedeno was in AAA destroying pitching and showing a very skilled and more disciplined bat. Ronny is ready for a fulltime starting gig, Baker got his feet wet at a very young age because he saw huge potential in the kid and it was time for him to grow on the MLB level. Unfortunately, Lou doesn’t operate that way, he wants what’s hot today (despite the age and upside- Pinella is more of a veteran-centered manager than Baker) and for that reason we might see a large flux of our prospects getting pushed back repeating levels, traded or all together lose any value.

Theroit is below average as a starting shortstop, I agree but I'm afraid the Cubs know that Cedeno is as well. It would seem that the Cubs have two above-average utility players.

Cedeno in 2006 was an above average defender at SS at the tender age of 23 years old. For more on Theriot, I'll quote Scartissue:

Hardball Times has Theriot with fewer Win Shares than 21 other shortstops. Folks, that’s not even average. His EqA is .245, whereas average is .270. Baseball Prospectus has him at 2.1 WARP, despite playing a full season. I find it interesting that his actual 2.1 WARP is exactly the PECOTA predicted WARP for 2007–he’s predictably bad. His fielding is rated -7 from the average player by BP. 29 other SS made more plays out of their range (including Jeter) than Theriot. Theriot’s only saving grace is that he’s decent within SS range, fielding a respectable .858 of balls within SS range. Cedeno is not likely to be an all-star, but he doesn’t have to be to be better than Theriot. BP projects him to have greater impact.

[Yankeebiscuitfan]

Is he really that bad? I remember him as a decent player in the games that I saw on TV. There was even one game where he went 4-5, if my memory serves me well.

[Bob Sacamento]

Is he really that bad? I remember him as a decent player in the games that I saw on TV. There was even one game where he went 4-5, if my memory serves me well.

Then odds are that you saw him play in July (.920 OPS), because outside of that month Ryan was a below average with the bat posting OPS of .697, .676, .548, .668, and .520. At the end of the season he tanked when September in 107AB, posted a .202/.257/.263/.520 line. Call it fatigue from a long season or that pitchers got to know him but Theriot went absent. In the 2hole in 277 AB, Theriot’s line was .253/.324/.310/.634 not what you want from a table setter.

[Hack_Miller]

Cedeno in 2006 was an above average defender at SS at the tender age of23 years old.

I've found no statistical evidence to back this up. Neither the base fielding stats nor the more sabermetric inclined stats from the THT bear this out.

Not sure if this link will work but you can recreate the search easily....
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstat...&Submit=Submit

As for the generic stats he had a below average range factor and fielding %. I don't think either of those tell us much about how good he is but the THT stats sure say he wasn't even average.

Coming into this ST Cedeno has a suspect bat and I don't see statistical proof that his defense is measurably better than Theriots' weak defense. I'm all for giving Cedeno every chance to win the job and I hope Lou will but until he proves he can be the guy he's not going to be handed the job.

[Bob Sacamento]

I've found no statistical evidence to back this up. Neither the base fielding stats nor the more sabermetric inclined stats from the THT bear this out.

Not sure if this link will work but you can recreate the search easily....
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstat...&Submit=Submit

As for the generic stats he had a below average range factor and fielding %. I don't think either of those tell us much about how good he is but the THT stats sure say he wasn't even average.

According to Baseball Prospectus, Theriot cost us -7 runs compared to the average SS in 2007 as for Cedeno in 2006 saved us 2 runs compared to the average SS in 2006. Theriot is 28 years while Cedeno is 25, Ronny has plenty of room to grow and is already a better defense player than Theriot. What you see in Theriot is what you get and it's not good on either side of the ball. Ronny destroyed AAA in his stints there, he has nothing left to prove on the minor league level and deserves a full time gig much like Pie. With Pie and Cedeno at the toughest defensive positions in baseball, the Cubs defense would be one of the strongest in all of baseball and the best in the NL Central.

[Hack_Miller]

According to Baseball Prospectus, Theriot cost us -7 runs compared to the average SS in 2007 as for Cedeno in 2006 saved us 2 runs compared to the average SS in 2006.

Offensively in 2006 as a starter Cedeno created 41 runs at the plate. Theriot created 65 in 2007. So basically you give up 24 runs at the plate to get back 9 in the field.

We could go round and round indefinitely with this but I'll leave it at this. Until Cedeno can create even league average runs at shortstop, the defensive benefits he may possess don't offset his liability with his bat. If he can get his bat to Theriot's level, which isn't saying much, I believe he's the starting shortstop.

[nathanKent]

Bob, I think you know I have the utmost respect for your knowledge and understanding of the game, and a big part of why I come to this board is to read what you write. I'm a football stats guy, and as a fellow stats guy I know exactly how much it irks me when people make uninformed statements like I'm about to make....

I really dislike Cedeno. Every year I try my best to find a little faith in the guy, but every year what I see is a guy who cannot get it done at the plate, and I don't see any signs of improvement. I'm not a big fan of Theriot either, and I believe you when you say he's reached maximum potential. But to my eyes he at least looks competent, whereas Cedeno looks lost. When you state that Theriot is worth -7 runs and Cedeno is +2 compared to other shortstops, I don't doubt for a second that that's correct. I just know what I see with my eyes, and my eyes consistently tell me that a Ronnie Cedeno AB is either going to be an excruciatingly slow minute and a half, or a perfect time to pay a visit to the facilities.

[Imgran]

Theriot had a crazy bad slump at the end of the season but for most of it he was pretty average. I don't think he'll be the biggest problem on your roster this season.

[The Splendid Splinter]

I don't think some of you guys know the value of having a good defensive SS on your team. Sure it might be 9 runs by the stats, but it's much more than that. Think of all the double plays, a blooper that could've been caught, balls that went through between 3B and SS. I could go on and on with this stuff.

I much rather have Cedeno playing SS than Theriot (lets make this clear, I'm not a big fan of Cedeno, but i'm not a fan at all of Theriot)... esp. with A Ram at 3B whose range is a step and dive so it's even more important to have a defensive player at SS. Being a "gritty and hard worker" is an excuse or a cover up of just how bad he is. I'm with Bob on this one. With Cedeno, his bat can only improve cuz man... you really can't get worse than that. Also his defense will improve as well, IMO. Same thing applies with Pie.