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2008 Chicago Cubs Season

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  • Did Cedeno impregnate Lou's granddaughter or something? For a guy that likes to ride the hot hand, Lou just seems unwilling to believe in Cedeno. I'm not saying Cedeno will continue his line of .391/.472/.587, but what more can the guy do to get a spot on the starting lineup? He's hitting better than both Theriot and DeRosa, plays better defense, but Lou can't figure out a way to get this guy playing time. Question for Lou--how many GMs have inquired about Theriot's availability, and how many GMs have inquired about Cedeno's availability? Get a clue.

    As expected, Reed Johnson has cooled off. His .680 OPS is still 100 points higher than Pie's, but Pie is on the upswing, and his defense makes up for the current difference in offense. The guy is 23 years old, and still growing into his game. If we're not going to use him, trade him for Crisp.

    Not surprisingly, our rotation overall is not doing the job. If it were up to me, our rotation would be Zambrano, Lilly, Marshall, Marmol and Lieber/Dempster. There's something wrong with Hill, and Rothschild's got to figure out what it is. If Marquis can be traded for some minor league talent, we should do it.
    To offset some of the pain of being a diehard Cubs fan, I've learned to also be a moderate Yankees fan.

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    • Originally posted by Scartissue View Post
      Did Cedeno impregnate Lou's granddaughter or something? For a guy that likes to ride the hot hand, Lou just seems unwilling to believe in Cedeno. I'm not saying Cedeno will continue his line of .391/.472/.587, but what more can the guy do to get a spot on the starting lineup? He's hitting better than both Theriot and DeRosa, plays better defense, but Lou can't figure out a way to get this guy playing time. Question for Lou--how many GMs have inquired about Theriot's availability, and how many GMs have inquired about Cedeno's availability? Get a clue.

      As expected, Reed Johnson has cooled off. His .680 OPS is still 100 points higher than Pie's, but Pie is on the upswing, and his defense makes up for the current difference in offense. The guy is 23 years old, and still growing into his game. If we're not going to use him, trade him for Crisp.

      Not surprisingly, our rotation overall is not doing the job. If it were up to me, our rotation would be Zambrano, Lilly, Marshall, Marmol and Lieber/Dempster. There's something wrong with Hill, and Rothschild's got to figure out what it is. If Marquis can be traded for some minor league talent, we should do it.
      marmol is needed in our pen. who else do you realllllly trust in there? dude will end up with 100 innings the rate he's going. Agreed about Hill though, he needs to get worked on because something is obviously wrong.

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      • Originally posted by rockin500 View Post
        marmol is needed in our pen. who else do you realllllly trust in there? dude will end up with 100 innings the rate he's going. Agreed about Hill though, he needs to get worked on because something is obviously wrong.
        I think Hill is just a headcase this year. Lilly is the one who looks injured.
        Senior Editor/Featured Writer for Home Of The Chiefs

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        • Fontenot has some serious pop for such a little guy and infielder. It was always known he was a good minor league contact hitter and showed off some extrabase power, but scouts always questioned whether it would translate and thus far it has.
          What a Batted Ball is Worth (in terms of a run):
          Line Drive: .356
          HBP: .342
          Non-Intentional Walk: .315
          Intentional Walk: .176
          Outfield Fly: .035
          Groundball: -.101
          Bunts: -.103
          Infield Fly: -.243
          Strikeout: -.287
          It's now officially Doctor Bob Sacamento, D.C., C.S.C.S., and working on my D.A.B.C.O. (Diplomate American Board of Chiropractic Orthopedics)

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          • Tomorrow we face former Cub Todd Wellemeyer. His improvements could be the result of Duncan's tutelage. Don't let his 4.14 ERA fool you. He's striking them out at almost 1 per inning, and has a good 1.19 WHIP. He's walking fewer batters this year than he has in the past. Thus far, he's given up a lot of HRs, which has hurt him. He's on his way to having another good year for the Cards.
            To offset some of the pain of being a diehard Cubs fan, I've learned to also be a moderate Yankees fan.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Scartissue View Post
              Tomorrow we face former Cub Todd Wellemeyer. His improvements could be the result of Duncan's tutelage. Don't let his 4.14 ERA fool you. He's striking them out at almost 1 per inning, and has a good 1.19 WHIP. He's walking fewer batters this year than he has in the past. Thus far, he's given up a lot of HRs, which has hurt him. He's on his way to having another good year for the Cards.
              Wellemeyer was one of the pitchers I think we let go too soon. I get attached to our 'pen guys though. I had soft spots for Borowski, Remlinger, and even Alfonseca. I never developed much of an attachment to Farnsworth, Hawkins, or Ohman though....
              Senior Editor/Featured Writer for Home Of The Chiefs

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              • Originally posted by nathanKent View Post
                I think Hill is just a headcase this year.
                thats what i meant. hes not right in the head this year. he's outthinking himself this year.

                at least lilly showed up today. granted, a 6 run cushion is always a nice thing for a pitcher to have!

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Scartissue View Post
                  Tomorrow we face former Cub Todd Wellemeyer. His improvements could be the result of Duncan's tutelage. Don't let his 4.14 ERA fool you. He's striking them out at almost 1 per inning, and has a good 1.19 WHIP. He's walking fewer batters this year than he has in the past. Thus far, he's given up a lot of HRs, which has hurt him. He's on his way to having another good year for the Cards.
                  You imply that Wellemeyer' 4.14 ERA is misleasding, but later mention the large amount of homeruns given up. Don't you think the high HR total is why his ERA is 4.14, and not lower,as his K rate would indicate, given a low HR rate?
                  1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

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                  The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
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                  • Originally posted by STLCards2 View Post
                    You imply that Wellemeyer' 4.14 ERA is misleasding, but later mention the large amount of homeruns given up. Don't you think the high HR total is why his ERA is 4.14, and not lower,as his K rate would indicate, given a low HR rate?
                    Of course his HR total is what makes his ERA high right now. It's at a rate of more than 50% higher than last year, which is odd considering his other peripherals have improved. I'm saying that it's probably bad luck. Even when you pitch batting pratice balls, a hitter still won't hit all home runs, which require a certain degree of luck in addition to skill. A guy with a strikeout per inning, a WHIP of 1.19 and a reasonable walk rate would ordinarily have better than 4.14 ERA. Some pitchers do give up more home runs than others, but with a small sample size, HRs can really skew ERAs. I am confident that if he were to keep up his current peripherals, his ERA will go down. I'm not saying he'll keep up his peripherals, but if you compiled a list of pitchers that have similar WHIPs, the overwhelming majority have ERAs below 4. Layer onto that guys with similar WHIPs and K rate, and you'll be really hard pressed to find many guys with ERAs above 4.
                    Last edited by Scartissue; 05-04-2008, 05:09 AM.
                    To offset some of the pain of being a diehard Cubs fan, I've learned to also be a moderate Yankees fan.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Scartissue View Post
                      Of course his HR total is what makes his ERA high right now. It's at a rate of more than 50% higher than last year, which is odd considering his other peripherals have improved. I'm saying that it's probably bad luck. Even when you pitch batting pratice balls, a hitter still won't hit all home runs, which require a certain degree of luck in addition to skill. A guy with a strikeout per inning, a WHIP of 1.19 and a reasonable walk rate would ordinarily have better than 4.14 ERA. Some pitchers do give up more home runs than others, but with a small sample size, HRs can really skew ERAs. I am confident that if he were to keep up his current peripherals, his ERA will go down. I'm not saying he'll keep up his peripherals, but if you compiled a list of pitchers that have similar WHIPs, the overwhelming majority have ERAs below 4. Layer onto that guys with similar WHIPs and K rate, and you'll be really hard pressed to find many guys with ERAs above 4.
                      You emphasize small sample size regarding HR rate, but ignore sample size regarding his K/BB ratio. Has there been anything in his past tenure as a major or minor league career that would indicate he is capable of sustaining such a good k/bb ratio?

                      I understand that HR rate is more difficult to evaluate due to external factors, but guys do vary in HR/9 and HR/FB rates - sometimes significantly -due to their own performance. Is his FB/GB ratio different than in years past? If it is, this could be contributing significantly to a higher HR rate. I know that many feel that HR/FB skill doesn't change for different pitchers, but I do not believe that. Too many pitchers (even beyond what a normal bell curve would indicate) have shown the ability to supres HR on FB over their careers. Wellemeyer hasn't pitched enough to give a large enough sample size to know if he has that ability, but I certainly would not lump all of the extra dingers he gave up this year as luck only.
                      1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                      1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                      1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                      The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                      The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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                      • I did some research on Toddy:

                        Todd has posted HR/9 ratios of 1.62, 1.95, 1.24 and 1.45 in previous seasons. These are, as I am sure you are aware of, horrible numbers-certainly not out of line with his raio this season. there was one season in which it was only .6. This is the major outlier, not the current season. They are all small inning seasons providing a relatively small sample size, but there is definatley a trend of dingeritis from Wellemeyer.

                        As far as k/bb: his previous ratios were 3:2, 3:2, 1:1, 3:2. As you can see, his current 3:1 ratio is far better than anything he has done previously. Don't be suprised if his K/BB ratio comes back to earth at a greater rate than his HR/9.

                        Todd's FB rate is the second highest it has ever been, and most statheads believe that GB/FB ratio is mostly controled by the pitcher-not external elements.

                        On the luck side: Wellemeyer's HR/FB rate is only at its 3rd "unluckiest" of his 6 year career-right in the middle. Even if you believe pitchers do not have any control of HR/Fb ratio, this seasons is right on track in "luckines" many other seasons in his career.
                        Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 05-04-2008, 06:34 AM.
                        1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                        1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                        1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                        The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                        The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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                        • Originally posted by STLCards2 View Post
                          You emphasize small sample size regarding HR rate, but ignore sample size regarding his K/BB ratio. Has there been anything in his past tenure as a major or minor league career that would indicate he is capable of sustaining such a good k/bb ratio?

                          I understand that HR rate is more difficult to evaluate due to external factors, but guys do vary in HR/9 and HR/FB rates - sometimes significantly -due to their own performance. Is his FB/GB ratio different than in years past? If it is, this could be contributing significantly to a higher HR rate. I know that many feel that HR/FB skill doesn't change for different pitchers, but I do not believe that. Too many pitchers (even beyond what a normal bell curve would indicate) have shown the ability to supres HR on FB over their careers. Wellemeyer hasn't pitched enough to give a large enough sample size to know if he has that ability, but I certainly would not lump all of the extra dingers he gave up this year as luck only.
                          Where in my post did I suggest he would keep up his K/BB rate. I was very careful in stating that IF HE WERE TO KEEP THIS UP, HE WOULD VERY LIKELY GET BETTER RESULTS. I have no idea whether he'd keep it up. It is a small sample size. I wouldn't rule it out completely though. Welly's always been a strikeout pitcher, and he's had control issues at times. If somehow Duncan found a way to permanently improve his control, my point is that he could be in for a very good season. That's a huge if, but I wouldn't be surprised if the strikeout portion of the equation remained a constant.

                          Why are you looking to make arguments out of nothing? Would you really suggest that if he were to keep up his strikeout rate per 9, keep his K/BB rate to 3, and his WHIP at 1.19, he'd still have an ERA over 4? Ask yourself, why is it EVERY qualified pitcher with a 1.21 WHIP or lower in 2007 had an ERA below 4? Dustin McGowan is one of the very few with a low WHIP (1.22) and high strikeout rate in 2007 that had an ERA over 4. For every pitcher you find with a similar WHIP and K rate that has an ERA over 4, and I will find at least 10 pitchers that don't. My point is that in this small sample size, the ERA doesn't jive with many of his other peripherals, and if he kept everything else the same, he'd get better results. I'm repeating myself here, because you are making arguments to hear yourself talking, while not making a real effort to hear what the other person is saying.
                          To offset some of the pain of being a diehard Cubs fan, I've learned to also be a moderate Yankees fan.

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                          • Originally posted by STLCards2 View Post
                            I did some research on Toddy:

                            Todd has posted HR/9 ratios of 1.62, 1.95, 1.24 and 1.45 in previous seasons.
                            BTW--Over his major league career, his HR/9 rate is 1.16, so his 1.46 HR this year is higher than his career average. I don't know how you are doing your math, but his HR/9 in 2007 is 1.26. In 2007, he gave up 11 HRs combined between KC and STL, while pitching 78.4 innnings. His HR/9 in 2006 is .69. In 2006, he gave up 6 HRs in 78.1 innings combined between FLA and KC.
                            Last edited by Scartissue; 05-04-2008, 07:06 AM.
                            To offset some of the pain of being a diehard Cubs fan, I've learned to also be a moderate Yankees fan.

                            Comment


                            • Wish it was Soto up now instead of DeRosa.
                              To offset some of the pain of being a diehard Cubs fan, I've learned to also be a moderate Yankees fan.

                              Comment


                              • Maybe ESPN's radar gun was generous--Gallagher brought heat today, hitting 95 to 97 mph.
                                To offset some of the pain of being a diehard Cubs fan, I've learned to also be a moderate Yankees fan.

                                Comment

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