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Scouting Report on Ronny Cedeno

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  • Scouting Report on Ronny Cedeno

    In this week's installment of Cubshub.com Scouting Report, we'll dig into the projected starting shortstop and one of the most asked about Cub prospects, Ronny Cedeno.

    Next up, in our free Cubs' scouting reports is Sean Gallagher.

    Ronny Cedeno
    B/T: R/R
    Ht: 6'0
    Wt: 180 lbs
    Birthdate: 2/2/1983
    Hometown: Carabobo, Venezuela


    There is no question that Ronny is the most talked about prospect in the Cubs system right now. Not only about his amazing rise in the past two years but in that he is entrusted with a position that the Cubs have had a revolving carosel on since the departure of Shawon Dunston. Some of the expected pressure is being taken off of Ronny for the 2006 season in that he won't open the year in the 2 hole but that has been his slot the last two years in the minors, and his likely role in the future with the organization. He has excelled through the Cubs system, and management has been very high on him for quite sometime, even when scouts were not. Like Soto, Cedeno has been one of the youngest players in his respected leagues. Often times it was due to the fact there was no other in-house choice and he was defensively talented. Again like Soto, Cedeno has really turned it on the offensively the past two seasons. So much so Ronny has solidified a starting role to start the 2006 season. And could have a very long future in the infield for the Cubs.

    The Cubs signed Ronny out of Venezuela as a 16 year old who had a very slick glove and strong and accurate arm. At an early age, he was often compared to Rey Ordonez due to his defense first, offense later approach. That is seen in Ronny's first few seasons with the Cubs, in 2000 Chicago had him in the Venezuelan Summer League where he preformed admirably with lesser competition. In 2001, the organization kept him in Arizona to bulk up and work on his stroke, subsequentially he was held out of most professional play, getting only 17 games in Lansing.

    In 2002 Chicago started Ronny off playing for Boise but was promoted half way through the short season A league and joined the Lansing Lugnuts (low A). Offensively, he didn't flash anything superb, not even cracking .575 ops in either league. But defensively, he was a gem and saved both clubs numerous runs with his defense up the middle.

    2002 Boise (short A)
    In 29 games, he was 24 for 110 with 17 runs, 5 doubles, 2 triples, 6 rbi, 9 bb, 25 k, 8/10 sb, .218 avg, .275 obp, .300 slg, .575 ops

    2002 Lansing (Low A)
    In 98 games, he was 80 for 376 with 44 runs, 17 doubles, 4 triples, 2 hrs, 31 rbi, 22 bb, 74 k, 14/24 sb, .213 avg, .269 obp, .295 slg, .564 ops

    Despite Ronny's unimpressive offensive numbers in 2002, the Cubs still promoted him to high A due to the lack of any shortstop prospects. Once again, Ronny flashed the offensive numbers that he did the year prior, not cracking .300 slg nor a .575 ops. It was his defense that once again earned him the respect of the organization.

    2003 Daytona (High A)
    In 107 games he was 80 for 380 with 43 runs, 18 doubles, 1 triple, 4 hrs, 36 rbi, 21 bb, 82 k, 19/25 sb, .211 avg, .257 obp, .295 slg, .552 ops

    Like the year previously, the Cubs promoted Ronny due to the lack of anyone better being able to play SS, not because he dominated or progressed greatly from the prior year. But Ronny was a monster suprise for the West Tenn club as he solidified his role as not only as a competent defensive shortstop (he also played a little second and third base) but as that his bat was capable of being a threat.

    2004 West Tenn (AA)
    In 116 games, he was 107 for 384 with 39 runs, 19 doubles, 5 triples, 6 hrs, 48 rbi, 24 bb, 74 k, 10/20 sb, .279 avg, .328 obp, .401 slg, .729 ops

    2004 Arizona Fall League
    In 20 games, 14 for 70 with 6 runs, 2 doubles, 2 triples, 4 rbi, 6 bb, 12 k, 1/1 sb, .200 avg, .282 obp, .286 slg, .568 ops

    The Cubs were very high on Ronny after he flashed his overall brilliance in the Southern League (AA) that they inserted him into the AFL during the winter season. With other top prospects, Cedeno's bat fell back to previous standards, by not eclipsing .300 slg nor .575 ops. Yet the Cubs not only promoted Ronny to Iowa but added him to the 40 man roster and left the former top Cub lefty prospect and now Royal Andy Sisco exposed to the Rule V draft, a move that was hotly debated at the time. But Ronny got what the system was preaching which was defense, teamwork, and coachability and despite Sisco's amazing ability and size, he was hot-headed, didn't listen to his coaches, and didn't get along with his teammates.

    Ronny has all but rewarded the Cubs for their decision, and helped ease the pain of losing Sisco who had a great first year campaign for a guy who never pitched above A ball. Cedeno kept his stellar defense, but what was shocking was his impressive offensive jump in Iowa. Ronny posted a slugging % of over .515 and an OPS of over .920, being selected to the Pacific Coast League midseason all star team. Cedeno quickly jumped up the Cubs charts and served at short while in the majors. And as Cedeno was getting more playing time, he fell ill to a hit pitch on September 10th against the Giants that gave him a hairline fracture in his fifth metacarpal of his left wrist. It wasn't a serious injury as Ronny rebounded quickly enough to start playing Venezualan Winter Ball in late November. Where he shined and earned Rookie of the Year honors. For all of those wondering about Ronny's MLB Rookie status, he's not eligible for ROY honors as he spend too much time on the major league roster.

    2005 Iowa (AAA)
    In 65 games, he was 87 for 245 with 42 runs, 14 doubles, 1 triple, 8 hrs, 36 rbi, 11/15 sb, 20 bb, 31 k, 11/15 sb, .355 avg, .403 obp, .518 slg, .921 ops

    2005 Chicago (MLB)
    In 41 games, he was 24 for 80 with 13 runs, 3 doubles, 1 hr, 6 rbi, 5 bb, 11 k, 1/1 sb, .300 avg, .356 obp, .375 slg, .731 ops

    2006 Winter League (Venezuelan)
    In 45 games, he was 60 for 169 with 25 runs, 9 doubles, 4 triples, 2 hrs, 28 rbi, 11 bb, 22 k, 1/2 sb, .355 avg, .400 obp, .491 slg, .891 ops


    Batting and Power: Something clicked in Cedeno's bat about two years ago. He started making more and more contact with pitches and putting them into play. Not only was he hitting the ball more but he was spraying the ball to all fields and was swinging on a level plane. Then in 2005, the light that went on in 2004 became as bright as the sun. He started hitting everything in sight, working counts, and becoming a legitamite offensive threat. For Iowa, he hit 8 hrs in 245 at bats (1 every 30.64), previously in his minor league career he had 16 hrs in 1473 at bats (1 every 92.06). Cedeno is not likely to repost a plus .500 slugging in the majors, his amount of homers in the PCL were likely a fluke. Ronny is more of a doubles hitter whom could add some more power with natural weight gain and not by altering his stroke too much. In addition to being a line drive hitter with gapping doubles power, Ronny is an excellent bunter and uses his speed to his advantage. He still has a few holes in his swing that will leave him exposed and his on base ability isn't completely developed yet. But if he can hone his walking ability, he'd be an excellent 2-hole hitter in the future.


    Baserunning and Speed: Cedeno has good speed, he's just an untrained baserunner. Last year, he was 12 for 15 between Iowa and Chicago in stolen bases. But the year prior, he was 10 for 20 in stolen bases for West Tennessee and 19 for 25 in Daytona. With some tutoring he can be an effective force on the basepaths and perhaps steal 15 or so bases during a season.

    Defense: This is Ronny's bread and butter. Without question, Ronny has the best arm and glove in the Cubs' system. He's had an a major league shortstops' glove since he was 16. One won't see Cedeno diving too often, not because he's lazy but because he covers amazing ground to both sides that he usually doesn't need to layout to get to the ball. His presence to Ramirez's left side will aid Aramis greatly, leaving him with a smaller zone that he has to cover.

    In addition to Cedeno having a vacuum for a glove, he has a very strong and accurate arm. He can make plays in the hole and still the first baseman in the chest to get the speedest of runners. Not only does Ronny have gold glove caliber defense at shortstop he can play second very well and a little of third base as well. He's the most defensively sound shortstop, but he's probably the best defensive second baseman on the roster too. So in the event the Cubs do make a trade for another shortstop in the coming years, Ronny could easily slide over to play second.


    Biggest Strengthes: Defense and Maturity

    Even if Ronny wasn't a good or decent hitter, he'd still likely have a role on any MLB club due to his defensive prowess and versatility to play three infield positions. So the awaking of his bat is just an added bonus and adds further value to the young middle infielder.

    Cedeno will enter the season as a 23 year old but he's very mature for his age. Not too long ago, he used to play with his emotions on his sleeve and often it would get the best of him at the plate and in the field. But with more confidence, his abilities became more stable, Cedeno said he felt he could relax once the Cubs protected him on the 40 man roster. It is that relaxation that has allowed him to grow exponentially at least in Ronny's eyes, and sometimes that's all it takes. Hopefully that confidence will translate over to the 2006 season.


    Biggest Weakness: Plate discipline

    Cedeno's biggest problem is his ability to control the strikezone. In the last three years in the minors, he's averaged a walk every 15.5 at bats while averaging a strikeout every 5.4 at bats. In the 2005 season, he greatly increased those rates by his half season for Iowa in 2005, where he averaged a walk every 12.25 AB and a strikeout every 7.9 AB.

    Expecting him to carry out those numbers over a whole season in the big leagues is a huge expectation that I don't think Ronny can live up to. I'm thinking of a walk every 16 at bats, and a strikeout every 5 at bats. Which prorated out over 450 at bats is 28 walks and 90 strikeouts. Not bad numbers at all, just not on the uber status he was on for Iowa.


    Key to Success: Consistent hitting

    For Ronny to keep his job or get the bulk of the playing time, he's got to hit for average on a consistent basis. He's the last player on the roster that can go under a prolonged slump, because the Cubs are paying Neifi Perez a could chunk of change and Dusty will not hesitate to go with Neifi especially if he's the hot hand and the Cubs are playing "competitive" teams.

    One thing that Ronny has going for him is that Dusty is in his corner, something that Baker doesn't usually do for rookie players. He's praised Cedeno since his amazing 2005 spring training. In 15 games, Cedeno was 10 for 22 with 4 runs, 3 rbi, 1/1 sb, 1 bb, 3 k. Dusty's praised not only his playing ability but his character. At one point during the season, Baker told Cedeno that he was sent down. Ronny thanked him for the opportunity, and wished the club the best and that touched Baker. As he remarked that most players believe they have the right to be in the majors and Cedeno was genuine in his appreciation. Humility is often a virtue that most individuals take for granted, and it's a quality that Cedeno has displayed.


    MLB Comparision: Julio Lugo

    Before the last two seasons, Cedeno had always been compared to Rey Ordonez with a better bat. Cedeno has more than backed up that comparision and has not only hit overwhelmingly better but with more power than Ordonez ever did. Probably the best overall comparision is to Julio Lugo. Like Lugo, Cedeno can do it all. He plays solid defense up the middle, has solid contact, a below average eye at the plate and doubles power. Lugo has started to turn it on the past few years for Tampa (age 27, 28 and 29), and it's something that Cedeno could very well do as well.


    Bob's Bottom Line: Cedeno has great potential and has already solidified one facet of his game, defense. It's the offensive aspect that one should be more concerned about. Even still, I think he could duplicate a line close to what Neifi posted last year at .274/.298/.383/.681 while playing just as good defense as Perez if not better. The worst case scenerio in Cedeno, the Cubs have a utility infielder. While the best case scenerio is that we have our starting shortstop for years to come.
    What a Batted Ball is Worth (in terms of a run):
    Line Drive: .356
    HBP: .342
    Non-Intentional Walk: .315
    Intentional Walk: .176
    Outfield Fly: .035
    Groundball: -.101
    Bunts: -.103
    Infield Fly: -.243
    Strikeout: -.287
    It's now officially Doctor Bob Sacamento, D.C., C.S.C.S., and working on my D.A.B.C.O. (Diplomate American Board of Chiropractic Orthopedics)

  • #2
    I'm looking forward to seeing what this guy can do with some significant playing time.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by The Big C
      I'm looking forward to seeing what this guy can do with some significant playing time.
      As long as he keeps a decent batting average (somewhere around .260) he should get plenty of at bats like 400-500.
      What a Batted Ball is Worth (in terms of a run):
      Line Drive: .356
      HBP: .342
      Non-Intentional Walk: .315
      Intentional Walk: .176
      Outfield Fly: .035
      Groundball: -.101
      Bunts: -.103
      Infield Fly: -.243
      Strikeout: -.287
      It's now officially Doctor Bob Sacamento, D.C., C.S.C.S., and working on my D.A.B.C.O. (Diplomate American Board of Chiropractic Orthopedics)

      Comment


      • #4
        i VERY excited to see what this kid can do!!
        Southlake Carroll Dragons Football
        National Champs '04, '05, '06
        State Champs '88, '92, '93, '02, '04, '05, '06

        Comment


        • #5
          Half way through the season, talk amongst yourselves about Cedeno's play.
          What a Batted Ball is Worth (in terms of a run):
          Line Drive: .356
          HBP: .342
          Non-Intentional Walk: .315
          Intentional Walk: .176
          Outfield Fly: .035
          Groundball: -.101
          Bunts: -.103
          Infield Fly: -.243
          Strikeout: -.287
          It's now officially Doctor Bob Sacamento, D.C., C.S.C.S., and working on my D.A.B.C.O. (Diplomate American Board of Chiropractic Orthopedics)

          Comment


          • #6
            he's not costing the Cubs as many runs as it cost them to play Neifi last year.
            RIP Dimebag, Mitch, John, & Grey Cat

            AUXILIUM MEUM A DOMINO

            Angel of Death
            Monarch to the kingdom of the dead
            Infamous butcher,
            Angel of Death

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Ravenlord
              he's not costing the Cubs as many runs as it cost them to play Neifi last year.
              or i'm wrong.

              Code:
              Player		AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	P/PA	RC/27	IsoD	IsoP	IOS	SecA
              Cedeno		257	281	342	623	3.45	2.88	024	085	109	114
              Perez, 2005	274	298	383	681	3.23	3.51	024	108	132	147
              Ronny has being 23 on his side, better hope it's enough.
              RIP Dimebag, Mitch, John, & Grey Cat

              AUXILIUM MEUM A DOMINO

              Angel of Death
              Monarch to the kingdom of the dead
              Infamous butcher,
              Angel of Death

              Comment


              • #8
                is cedenos average that low now? yikes. i knew he was in a bit of a slump, but not that much. wasnt he just at .280 like 10 days ago?

                what does SecA stand for?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by rockin500
                  what does SecA stand for?
                  Secondary Average (A way to look at a player's extra bases gained, independent of Batting Average)
                  (TB - H + BB + SB - CS) / AB

                  basically you should use it the way you would batting average. the levels of evaluation for it are similar. 300 pretty good, 230 pretty bad, ect.


                  MLB Comparision: Julio Lugo

                  Before the last two seasons, Cedeno had always been compared to Rey Ordonez with a better bat. Cedeno has more than backed up that comparision and has not only hit overwhelmingly better but with more power than Ordonez ever did. Probably the best overall comparision is to Julio Lugo. Like Lugo, Cedeno can do it all. He plays solid defense up the middle, has solid contact, a below average eye at the plate and doubles power. Lugo has started to turn it on the past few years for Tampa (age 27, 28 and 29), and it's something that Cedeno could very well do as well.

                  Code:
                  comparison of rate stats between 23 yo Ronny Cedeno, 24 yo Julio Lugo (was in AAA at 23), and 23 yo Rey Ordonez.
                  
                  
                  Player		AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	P/PA	RC/27	IsoD	IsoP	IOS	SecA
                  Cedeno		257	281	342	623	3.45	2.88	024	085	109	114
                  Lugo		283	346	431	777	3.83	5.22	063	148	211	267
                  Ordonez		257	289	303	592	N/A	2.83	032	046	078	086
                  RIP Dimebag, Mitch, John, & Grey Cat

                  AUXILIUM MEUM A DOMINO

                  Angel of Death
                  Monarch to the kingdom of the dead
                  Infamous butcher,
                  Angel of Death

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    He is pretty good, he just needs to get out of the slide he is in.

                    Comment

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