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Matt Murton vs Felix Pie

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  • #61
    Originally posted by Rapmaster View Post
    Well, I don't think it's fair to say Felix Pie's the best defensive CF in the game based on statistics quite yet. I will say i've seen him take some questionable routes and his jumps aren't spectacular. That being said, he's certainly not bad.

    My problem with using statistics to measure Felix Pie's prowess lies in several things. First off, he's had a very small sample to draw from. Not to mention, defensive statistics are unreliable and do not always necessarily agree with each other. Not criticizing anybody, but SFR shouldn't be seriously considered as the end-all, say-all statistic in rating how good he is. BP still considers that metric to be in a beta phase. Also, the year to year performance of fielders is highly variable as well, given his small sample size, he may be performing at a rate that differs from his natural ability. Terrence Long is the record holder for SFR as well. I took a quick glance at some metrics concerning Long (because I've always considered him to be below average). Given partial playing, his win share rate was still spectacularly low, he wasn't making a ton of out-of-zone plays, his RZR was very low, and his RF was below league average except in left (whoopeee). Clearly, there's some inconsistencies to be worked out in that stat. It may have been skewed by his abnormally high kill rate that year...

    A note about Cubs' CFers. Given the variability between years, I'd say Cubs CFers are the hardest to rate. The only guys I can remember that have started there for more than a single season in recent history are Brian McRae and Corey Patterson. Names such as Damon Buford, Gary Matthews, Lance Johnson and Juan Pierre immediately come to mind.
    To clarify, I don't endorse SFR, and the sample size is admitedly small, but we are discussing whether he should play. For any young player, you have to make decisions on limited information.

    I mentioned the BP article because Bob had made the argument that Pie is already a top defender, and if I'm not mistaken, Bob's view is probably more scout-like analysis than stat based analysis. I was pointing out that BP wrote an article that corroborates his view, which is coming from a different angle. Measuring defense is one of the toughest endeavors, and should be a combination of a lot of things, and viewed from a lot of different angles. It's not at all unusual to see different stats and systems rate guys differently. However, the more sources we start seeing that say Pie is a top defender, at some point a reasonable person would conclude that he is one of the best defensively. I'm not saying the verdict is in on Pie yet.

    By so many measures, for example, Adam Everett is the best or near the best defensive SS. Couple that with scout's observations, and at some point, a reasonable person would conclude that he is in fact one of the, if not the best, SS, despite the inherent difficulty in substantiating that claim. Pie has not gotten there yet on the evidence, but this exercise is also about gathering information about his defense. Feel free to contribute contrary or corroborating evidence you may find, and someday, maybe we'll have a more accurate assessment of his defense.
    To offset some of the pain of being a diehard Cubs fan, I've learned to also be a moderate Yankees fan.

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    • #62
      Originally posted by Scartissue View Post
      I mentioned the BP article because Bob had made the argument that Pie is already a top defender, and if I'm not mistaken, Bob's view is probably more scout-like analysis than stat based analysis. I was pointing out that BP wrote an article that corroborates his view, which is coming from a different angle. Measuring defense is one of the toughest endeavors, and should be a combination of a lot of things, and viewed from a lot of different angles. It's not at all unusual to see different stats and systems rate guys differently.
      No matter what my little avatar says, it's not 100% right. Actually, it's not that stats don't lie, but in many pictures they don't tell the whole truth or can be manipulated to perverse the image. In baseball, no bigger manipulation occurs than by defensive metrics. The stats we use now are filled with more holes than swiss chess; defensive fielding percentage, putouts, errors, Range factor, Zone Range Factor, etc. Defensively concerned, I'm a scouts' guy, I believe nothing tells the story better of a player's defensive abilities than what a skilled scout who's seen the player many times over. In no other field do I feel as strongly to support the scouts as I do defensively. For me, sabermetrics has a better history in offense, and a quagmire in the pitching field. But they've never come close to a suitable measure for a defensive player nor the impact of defense in the outcome.
      What a Batted Ball is Worth (in terms of a run):
      Line Drive: .356
      HBP: .342
      Non-Intentional Walk: .315
      Intentional Walk: .176
      Outfield Fly: .035
      Groundball: -.101
      Bunts: -.103
      Infield Fly: -.243
      Strikeout: -.287
      It's now officially Doctor Bob Sacamento, D.C., C.S.C.S., and working on my D.A.B.C.O. (Diplomate American Board of Chiropractic Orthopedics)

      Comment


      • #63
        Originally posted by Bob Sacamento View Post
        No matter what my little avatar says, it's not 100% right. Actually, it's not that stats don't lie, but in many pictures they don't tell the whole truth or can be manipulated to perverse the image. In baseball, no bigger manipulation occurs than by defensive metrics. The stats we use now are filled with more holes than swiss chess; defensive fielding percentage, putouts, errors, Range factor, Zone Range Factor, etc. Defensively concerned, I'm a scouts' guy, I believe nothing tells the story better of a player's defensive abilities than what a skilled scout who's seen the player many times over. In no other field do I feel as strongly to support the scouts as I do defensively. For me, sabermetrics has a better history in offense, and a quagmire in the pitching field. But they've never come close to a suitable measure for a defensive player nor the impact of defense in the outcome.
        I probably view defensive stats as more helpful than you do, but I don't trust them completely either. With some players, both scouts and the stats agree. When scouting and stats are in general agreement, such as with the case of Everett, then I think it's safe to conclude that the player is a terrific defender. When they disagree, I think someone is missing something. DLee is a player that scouts seem to favor, but doesn't measure well by many of the more respected defensive stats. I don't know if it's because he's my favorite player, but on DLee for example, I don't agree with the stats and I still believe he's a very good defensive 1B.
        To offset some of the pain of being a diehard Cubs fan, I've learned to also be a moderate Yankees fan.

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        • #64
          Originally posted by Scartissue View Post
          And if Reed Johnson looks godlike to you playing CF, it's time for you to consider switching religions.
          he looked godlike yesterday.

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          • #65
            Originally posted by Scartissue View Post
            When they disagree, I think someone is missing something. DLee is a player that scouts seem to favor, but doesn't measure well by many of the more respected defensive stats. I don't know if it's because he's my favorite player, but on DLee for example, I don't agree with the stats and I still believe he's a very good defensive 1B.
            Yes the scouts absolutely love Lee's glove over at 1B. He's so athletic, he covers plus ground for a 1B and can pick'm as good as anyone in baseball. I don't know of the exact number, or if it's even kept, but Derrek is among MLB's best in saving errant throw. Much of that is due to ARam and s arm just like Dunston made Grace a gold glover.Theriot'
            What a Batted Ball is Worth (in terms of a run):
            Line Drive: .356
            HBP: .342
            Non-Intentional Walk: .315
            Intentional Walk: .176
            Outfield Fly: .035
            Groundball: -.101
            Bunts: -.103
            Infield Fly: -.243
            Strikeout: -.287
            It's now officially Doctor Bob Sacamento, D.C., C.S.C.S., and working on my D.A.B.C.O. (Diplomate American Board of Chiropractic Orthopedics)

            Comment

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