Matt Murton vs Felix Pie

[Bob Sacamento]

When they disagree, I think someone is missing something. DLee is a player that scouts seem to favor, but doesn't measure well by many of the more respected defensive stats. I don't know if it's because he's my favorite player, but on DLee for example, I don't agree with the stats and I still believe he's a very good defensive 1B.

Yes the scouts absolutely love Lee's glove over at 1B. He's so athletic, he covers plus ground for a 1B and can pick'm as good as anyone in baseball. I don't know of the exact number, or if it's even kept, but Derrek is among MLB's best in saving errant throw. Much of that is due to ARam and s arm just like Dunston made Grace a gold glover.Theriot'

[rockin500]

And if Reed Johnson looks godlike to you playing CF, it's time for you to consider switching religions.

he looked godlike yesterday.

[Scartissue]

No matter what my little avatar says, it's not 100% right. Actually, it's not that stats don't lie, but in many pictures they don't tell the whole truth or can be manipulated to perverse the image. In baseball, no bigger manipulation occurs than by defensive metrics. The stats we use now are filled with more holes than swiss chess; defensive fielding percentage, putouts, errors, Range factor, Zone Range Factor, etc. Defensively concerned, I'm a scouts' guy, I believe nothing tells the story better of a player's defensive abilities than what a skilled scout who's seen the player many times over. In no other field do I feel as strongly to support the scouts as I do defensively. For me, sabermetrics has a better history in offense, and a quagmire in the pitching field. But they've never come close to a suitable measure for a defensive player nor the impact of defense in the outcome.

I probably view defensive stats as more helpful than you do, but I don't trust them completely either. With some players, both scouts and the stats agree. When scouting and stats are in general agreement, such as with the case of Everett, then I think it's safe to conclude that the player is a terrific defender. When they disagree, I think someone is missing something. DLee is a player that scouts seem to favor, but doesn't measure well by many of the more respected defensive stats. I don't know if it's because he's my favorite player, but on DLee for example, I don't agree with the stats and I still believe he's a very good defensive 1B.

[Bob Sacamento]

I mentioned the BP article because Bob had made the argument that Pie is already a top defender, and if I'm not mistaken, Bob's view is probably more scout-like analysis than stat based analysis. I was pointing out that BP wrote an article that corroborates his view, which is coming from a different angle. Measuring defense is one of the toughest endeavors, and should be a combination of a lot of things, and viewed from a lot of different angles. It's not at all unusual to see different stats and systems rate guys differently.

No matter what my little avatar says, it's not 100% right. Actually, it's not that stats don't lie, but in many pictures they don't tell the whole truth or can be manipulated to perverse the image. In baseball, no bigger manipulation occurs than by defensive metrics. The stats we use now are filled with more holes than swiss chess; defensive fielding percentage, putouts, errors, Range factor, Zone Range Factor, etc. Defensively concerned, I'm a scouts' guy, I believe nothing tells the story better of a player's defensive abilities than what a skilled scout who's seen the player many times over. In no other field do I feel as strongly to support the scouts as I do defensively. For me, sabermetrics has a better history in offense, and a quagmire in the pitching field. But they've never come close to a suitable measure for a defensive player nor the impact of defense in the outcome.

[Scartissue]

Well, I don't think it's fair to say Felix Pie's the best defensive CF in the game based on statistics quite yet. I will say i've seen him take some questionable routes and his jumps aren't spectacular. That being said, he's certainly not bad.

My problem with using statistics to measure Felix Pie's prowess lies in several things. First off, he's had a very small sample to draw from. Not to mention, defensive statistics are unreliable and do not always necessarily agree with each other. Not criticizing anybody, but SFR shouldn't be seriously considered as the end-all, say-all statistic in rating how good he is. BP still considers that metric to be in a beta phase. Also, the year to year performance of fielders is highly variable as well, given his small sample size, he may be performing at a rate that differs from his natural ability. Terrence Long is the record holder for SFR as well. I took a quick glance at some metrics concerning Long (because I've always considered him to be below average). Given partial playing, his win share rate was still spectacularly low, he wasn't making a ton of out-of-zone plays, his RZR was very low, and his RF was below league average except in left (whoopeee). Clearly, there's some inconsistencies to be worked out in that stat. It may have been skewed by his abnormally high kill rate that year...

A note about Cubs' CFers. Given the variability between years, I'd say Cubs CFers are the hardest to rate. The only guys I can remember that have started there for more than a single season in recent history are Brian McRae and Corey Patterson. Names such as Damon Buford, Gary Matthews, Lance Johnson and Juan Pierre immediately come to mind.

To clarify, I don't endorse SFR, and the sample size is admitedly small, but we are discussing whether he should play. For any young player, you have to make decisions on limited information.

I mentioned the BP article because Bob had made the argument that Pie is already a top defender, and if I'm not mistaken, Bob's view is probably more scout-like analysis than stat based analysis. I was pointing out that BP wrote an article that corroborates his view, which is coming from a different angle. Measuring defense is one of the toughest endeavors, and should be a combination of a lot of things, and viewed from a lot of different angles. It's not at all unusual to see different stats and systems rate guys differently. However, the more sources we start seeing that say Pie is a top defender, at some point a reasonable person would conclude that he is one of the best defensively. I'm not saying the verdict is in on Pie yet.

By so many measures, for example, Adam Everett is the best or near the best defensive SS. Couple that with scout's observations, and at some point, a reasonable person would conclude that he is in fact one of the, if not the best, SS, despite the inherent difficulty in substantiating that claim. Pie has not gotten there yet on the evidence, but this exercise is also about gathering information about his defense. Feel free to contribute contrary or corroborating evidence you may find, and someday, maybe we'll have a more accurate assessment of his defense.

[Rapmaster]

Well, I don't think it's fair to say Felix Pie's the best defensive CF in the game based on statistics quite yet. I will say i've seen him take some questionable routes and his jumps aren't spectacular. That being said, he's certainly not bad.

My problem with using statistics to measure Felix Pie's prowess lies in several things. First off, he's had a very small sample to draw from. Not to mention, defensive statistics are unreliable and do not always necessarily agree with each other. Not criticizing anybody, but SFR shouldn't be seriously considered as the end-all, say-all statistic in rating how good he is. BP still considers that metric to be in a beta phase. Also, the year to year performance of fielders is highly variable as well, given his small sample size, he may be performing at a rate that differs from his natural ability. Terrence Long is the record holder for SFR as well. I took a quick glance at some metrics concerning Long (because I've always considered him to be below average). Given partial playing, his win share rate was still spectacularly low, he wasn't making a ton of out-of-zone plays, his RZR was very low, and his RF was below league average except in left (whoopeee). Clearly, there's some inconsistencies to be worked out in that stat. It may have been skewed by his abnormally high kill rate that year...

A note about Cubs' CFers. Given the variability between years, I'd say Cubs CFers are the hardest to rate. The only guys I can remember that have started there for more than a single season in recent history are Brian McRae and Corey Patterson. Names such as Damon Buford, Gary Matthews, Lance Johnson and Juan Pierre immediately come to mind.

[Scartissue]

And if Reed Johnson looks godlike to you playing CF, it's time for you to consider switching religions.

[Scartissue]

I meant Cf'ers.

Doesn't matter if you limit to CFs. Cumulative study between 2003 to 2007 doesn't favor Cub CFs (non of the 3 CFs named in top ten was Cubs). Jones played even more time at CF than anyone else, and played the majority of 2007 in CF, and didn't crack the top 6 on a rate adjusted basis. Patterson had similar metrics before and after leaving Wrigley (and by Dewan's plus minus system, had his best year at Baltimore). Lance Johnson's metrics before and after he left for one year to the Mets is comparable (and in fact his first year with the Mets was better than his prior year with the Cubs).

[Ubiquitous]

I meant Cf'ers.

[Scartissue]

I don't think fielding metrics have a good handle on Wrigley Field. Virtually anybody who plays half their games at Wrigley end up looking like gods according to fielding metrics.

Uh, no. No other Cubs outfelder was in the top six when rate adjusted. Jones wasn't in there. Soriano wasn't in the top six either. Fields might have some impact, but to say playing half the games at Wrigley makes anyone look good is a gross overgeneralization.

[Ubiquitous]

I don't think fielding metrics have a good handle on Wrigley Field. Virtually anybody who plays half their games at Wrigley end up looking like gods according to fielding metrics.

[nathanKent]

Let's just hope he learns how to read the ball off his own bat a little better.

[Scartissue]

He's never really laid them down with regularity and it's never been a part of game despite being a table setter much of his career. Just like Corey Patterson, Pie's speed and lefthanded stick would give him an advantage of laying one down for a hit ala Brett Butler but the organization has been more worried about keeping his K's down and his stroke lean. In the 06-07 offseason (where Pie didn't get the MLB callup), the Cubs had Pie working with special adviser Bobby Dernier on his basestealing technique and leadoff hitter skills. Pie is one of our fastest runners on the team but he gets poor pitcher reads and bad jumps, elsewise he'd be a 50 SB candidate.

Thanks for the info. So right now, Pie's speed is good for defense, infield hits and baserunning (as opposed to basestealer).

Baseball Prospectus made a couple of interesting observations about Pie. First, they back up your argument that Pie is one of the best if not the best defensive CFs in the game. Extrapolating to a 162 game season, Pie has the highest SFR (simple fielding runs) of any CF in the game, and has the highest of anyone since Terrence Long in 2004. Over 162 games, Pie would have had a SFR of 40.1. That's 40 runs better than the average CF (add that to the runs he creates as a hitter, and it's easy to see why his overall contributions have substantial value). That's 2 times better than any CF whose name does not sound like a breakfast cereal. That's 67 runs better than a guy who can't field, like Nick Swisher. Pie's throwing prowess wasn't rate adjusted, but with his arm, he's even more valuable than SFR would indicate. If I remember correctly, BP recently also noted that Pie is one of the better baserunners, which makes sense given he knows how to read the ball off bats and has great speed.

[Bob Sacamento]

My theory is Lou's method of evaluating defense is probably the outdated fielding percentage, which is just the converse of errors. Cedeno's made a few errors, so maybe in Lou's mind, Theriot's the better SS defensively.

I was thinking that Lou's warped mind was concentrating more on their bats. In that Ryan is hot hitting and it's been from the SS position, why mess with it. While Ronny is starting to hit but it was as a 2B, that less pressure from not playing SS is good for his mental game. But that's just my theory...

If Ronny keeps on hitting though, I wonder what Lou does with one of his favorites in Theriot. I want it to turn into Theriot as the supersub subbing at 2B, SS, etc yet I doubt that happens.

[Bob Sacamento]

Hey Bob,

Do you know if Pie can bunt for singles? He's got the speed, but don't recall seeing him do that in the few times I've seen him play. Some guys have very high success rates when bunting for singles. I'm wondering if he's one of them.

He's never really laid them down with regularity and it's never been a part of game despite being a table setter much of his career. Just like Corey Patterson, Pie's speed and lefthanded stick would give him an advantage of laying one down for a hit ala Brett Butler but the organization has been more worried about keeping his K's down and his stroke lean. In the 06-07 offseason (where Pie didn't get the MLB callup), the Cubs had Pie working with special adviser Bobby Dernier on his basestealing technique and leadoff hitter skills. Pie is one of our fastest runners on the team but he gets poor pitcher reads and bad jumps, elsewise he'd be a 50 SB candidate.