Lineup Changes and Decision for May

[Jeff Pico]

With Alf coming off the D/L, maybe it's time to open that old topic, of where he should be in the batting order. And for that matter, who should be the team around him.

We all know Alf's strengths and weaknesses. Despite how we have done without him, there is no way he should sit. As maddingly inconsistent as he is, he pretty much carried us last September when we really needed it. He always hits his homers in bunches.

Given that, where do you put him? Who bats around him?

Do you play Reed Johnson, or Felix Pie? (I think the Murton or Pie debate is officially dead for now)

Cedeno, Theriot, DeRosa, in what combination, and where in the lineup?

What about Fuku batting 2nd?

[Scartissue]

I haven't changed my mind one bit about Soriano batting leadoff, which is that it's the wrong place to bat him. If I set the lineup, I'd bat Fukudome, Lee, ARam and Soriano. I wrote this June of last year about Soriano's batting history:

The last 2 seasons where he spent most of his season batting other than leadoff were 2005 and 2004.

In 2005, he had 497 at bats at the fifth spot, and his avg/obp/slg was

.270/.315/.523.

At the leadoff spot in 2005, he had 98 at bats, for

.276/.301/480.

In 2004, he had 485 at bats at the third spot, for

.280/.328/.476

In very limited action at the leadoff, he had only 67 at bats (so you shouldn't read too much into the numbers) for

.269/.310/.597

In the context of his career, he hit:

.282/.328/.513, which is comparable to what he hit outside of leadoff in 2004 and 2005, so I'm just not convinced that he would bat better at the leadoff than elsewhere.

Moving on to the issue of maximizing his value, let's look at RBIs. RBIs is a flawed stat, because it requires your teammates to get on base, etc. However, I'll interpolate his RBIs anyway. Assuming 600 at bats, Soriano had a pace of 112 RBIs batting fifth in 2005 and 96 RBIs in 2004. This year, despite another career year so far, he's on pace for 60 RBIs.

Although I don't particularly like RBIs as a stat, I mention it because the Cubs paid so much for Soriano because of his power. Power is most useful when driving in runs. It's clear that Cubs didn't pay for his .OBP--his career .OBP of .328 is below average, and his .OBP last year of .351 couldn't justify his contract. Even this year, a career high mind you, he is only 25th in the national league in .OBP. At least right now, relative to DLee, Soriano's numbers and DLee's numbers would justify DLee batting leadoff before Soriano, as Soriano is slugging more and DLee is getting on base more.

Don't believe me that his contract is mostly based on his power? Compare Soriano's numbers ignoring his power with that of Juan Pierre, and you'll see that offensively Soriano is essentially Pierre with power. Pierre's career AVG and OBP are actually higher than Soriano's at .301/.347, yet Pierre will never sniff Soriano money.

[Jeff Pico]

Don't believe me that his contract is mostly based on his power? Compare Soriano's numbers ignoring his power with that of Juan Pierre, and you'll see that offensively Soriano is essentially Pierre with power. Pierre's career AVG and OBP are actually higher than Soriano's at .301/.347, yet Pierre will never sniff Soriano money.

Interesting point, Pierre with power and a much better arm. Seems at times like everyone not named Alfonso or Lou feels he should bat lower.

I wonder if the Cubs made a handshake agreement with Alf when they signed him: "We'll keep you in the leadoff spot if at all possible". Has Alf ever commented on this? Or, are his comments what you would expect, the typical "I'll bat wherever they want me to". I wonder how he feels, because it seems like we keep it that way because of his feelings.

Stolen Bases, IMHO, are the most overrated skill in baseball. Particularly when you are running in front of Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, et al.

[Lipsander]

Given our team's current sucess, I doubt Alf would object to a permanent move lower in the order. I know he sees how the team is playing well without him. That would make me feel like I was an expendable commodity.

[nathanKent]

Given our team's current sucess, I doubt Alf would object to a permanent move lower in the order. I know he sees how the team is playing well without him. That would make me feel like I was an expendable commodity.

Yeah, then he gets his paycheck and remembers he isn't.