Fukudome: Bad Month, or Back to Reality?

[Jeff Pico]

Fuku is having a bad month at the plate. He still can take a walk, and is great on defense. But let's be honest; he hasn't hit the ball with authority this month, and has looked like kind of a slappy hitter.

His April OPS: .915. In May, it's .683. Is Fuku a .300 hitter having a bad month, or a .256 hitter that had a great opening month? What is the greater adjustment, pitcher to new hitter, or new hitter to pitchers?

We didn't expect 30 HR power, but we did expect line-drive power. I hope he isn't Tony Gwynn-Lite.

I looked up some other spilts:

SOTO: April OPS: 1.048; May OPS: .885. Not April's godlike pace, but still very good. Tells me he might actually be a legit middle-order hitter.
THERIOT: April OPS: .831; May OPS: .709 (.383 OBP though). April looks like an abberation. If he can continue to get on base at a .350+ clip, he will still be helping though.
DEROSA: Not sure it matters, but as of this moment, has the exact same OPS in BOTH months: .866.

[Lipsander]

I think its safe to say the National League has adjusted to get him out. Now lets see how he adjusts. I mean he's not playing horribly, but I would like to see a little more power from him. At the end of the day, as long as the team wins, I do not care one way or the other.

[Cubbyfanjohn]

I think the Cubs have a fine amount of offense. He is not having a bad month at the plate I don't think. He is fast, so, he can beat out an infield single, or get to second base on an error. I think the real amazing thing about him is his deffense. He saved at least one run yesterday. I think either he, and Soto will win the rookie of the year.

[nathanKent]

The thing to keep in mind with Fukudome is that he's still THE most disciplined hitter on this staff. .256 AVG? Yes. But .354 OBP to go along with that.

[otis89]

I think it's still too early to make any definite conclusions on which month was closer to the real Fukudome.

[jakelauer]

I agree. I think this is just a bad month, like any hitter would have. His hits are just not finding holes. He'll break out of it eventually.

[Bob Sacamento]

The truth is Kosuke is probably somewhere in between, he's probably a .280ish hitter with an OBP of .360ish and SLG OF .450ish. That gives him an overall OPS of .810ish. The stat the has the most lenience is his slugging, Kosuke is not a power slugger, he'll be lucky if he hits more than 15 homers. It'll be his doubles and triples that will give him his jump. After a year in the league, we'll probably see increases across the board with Fukudome's offense, remember Matsui, a Japanese powerhitter, didn't hit many HR out his first season.

[Whitesoxnut]

Right now hes at .301 .406 .421 . So whats that tell you?

It tells you hes a very disciplined hitter on a team that all of a sudden has became a disciplined hitting team the very year they brought in this guy.

Boy thats a coincidence aint it? Ive always believed disciplined hitting is infectious. Its called "team baseball" and its how you get one of those pretty rings on your finger at the end of the year.

I must say Im rather impressed with the plate discipline of the Cubs in 2008.

[nathanKent]

Right now hes at .301 .406 .421 . So whats that tell you?

It tells you hes a very disciplined hitter on a team that all of a sudden has became a disciplined hitting team the very year they brought in this guy.

Boy thats a coincidence aint it? Ive always believed disciplined hitting is infectious. Its called "team baseball" and its how you get one of those pretty rings on your finger at the end of the year.

I must say Im rather impressed with the plate discipline of the Cubs in 2008.

Agree with you in full. His individual value as a hitter pales in comparison to his value as a teammate and as an example.

[Scartissue]

I'm not buying the theory that it's Fukudome. He doesn't speak much English, and how is it that he some how convinced the Cubs to be more patient from the day he got here? Cubs have been drawing walks since their first game. As for setting an example, DLee, who is probably among the most respected guys on the roster with a .400 OBP last year. Why wouldn't he have inspired patience last year?

DeRosa showed he can be patient last year. Soto's had plate discipline since the minors. DLee's actually drawing fewer walks. Soriano's been pretty much the same. Johnson's always had a healthy OBP/Avg differential, and this year's not much different than 2006 and 2007.

Theriot's OBP/Avg differential is higher, but by only 20 points. ARam is the only guy with a dramatic increase. I think that's the product of a guy entering his prime.

[Whitesoxnut]

I'm not buying the theory that it's Fukudome. He doesn't speak much English, and how is it that he some how convinced the Cubs to be more patient from the day he got here? Cubs have been drawing walks since their first game. As for setting an example, DLee, who is probably among the most respected guys on the roster with a .400 OBP last year. Why wouldn't he have inspired patience last year?

DeRosa showed he can be patient last year. Soto's had plate discipline since the minors. DLee's actually drawing fewer walks. Soriano's been pretty much the same. Johnson's always had a healthy OBP/Avg differential, and this year's not much different than 2006 and 2007.

Theriot's OBP/Avg differential is higher, but by only 20 points. ARam is the only guy with a dramatic increase. I think that's the product of a guy entering his prime.

Just because Soto has had plate discipline in the minors doesnt mean the Cubs catchers had plate discipline in '06 and '07. Or that their RF'er has. Or that their CF'er has. DeRosas plate discipline is better this year. He has a higher OBP, a higher BA, and is getting more BBs.

They have a 2008 team BA of .285 and OBP of .367, "which is almost astounding", compared to a team 2007 BA of .271 and OBP of .333. In '07 they had a SO average of 5.35 and this year its at 5.17. So they are striking out less, tho not by a lot. In runs scored they have gone from 8'th in '07 to 1'st so far in '08.

By any reckoning they have so far shown better plate discipline this year.

I would have a hard time remembering the last team that posted a .367 team OBP. That's an incredible stat.

[nathanKent]

I'm not buying the theory that it's Fukudome. He doesn't speak much English, and how is it that he some how convinced the Cubs to be more patient from the day he got here? Cubs have been drawing walks since their first game. As for setting an example, DLee, who is probably among the most respected guys on the roster with a .400 OBP last year. Why wouldn't he have inspired patience last year?

DeRosa showed he can be patient last year. Soto's had plate discipline since the minors. DLee's actually drawing fewer walks. Soriano's been pretty much the same. Johnson's always had a healthy OBP/Avg differential, and this year's not much different than 2006 and 2007.

Theriot's OBP/Avg differential is higher, but by only 20 points. ARam is the only guy with a dramatic increase. I think that's the product of a guy entering his prime.

Lee posted that .400 OBP with a .318 BA. I think where Fukudome's influence came in to play was in preseason when his OBP/BA differential was in the .150 range. He basically wasn't getting hits at all but still had a higher OBP than most the rest of the team.

[rockin500]

I'm not buying the theory that it's Fukudome. He doesn't speak much English, and how is it that he some how convinced the Cubs to be more patient from the day he got here? Cubs have been drawing walks since their first game. As for setting an example, DLee, who is probably among the most respected guys on the roster with a .400 OBP last year. Why wouldn't he have inspired patience last year?

DeRosa showed he can be patient last year. Soto's had plate discipline since the minors. DLee's actually drawing fewer walks. Soriano's been pretty much the same. Johnson's always had a healthy OBP/Avg differential, and this year's not much different than 2006 and 2007.

Theriot's OBP/Avg differential is higher, but by only 20 points. ARam is the only guy with a dramatic increase. I think that's the product of a guy entering his prime.

have to disagree with ya, since he speaks more english than he lets on to the media. not to mention that youngsters learn by example. Its not all fukodome, true, but Reed Johnson is similar in their eyes at the plate.

Aramis didnt all of a sudden develop a good eye through himself. if you think so, you are nuts. Same with Theriot.

if you know ANYTHING about athletics, example (and there are at least two) is the most important thing in teaching. If theres no concrete example, theres nothing to really grab onto.

BTW, Derosa showed he could be patient on occasion last year. But nothing like fukodome. Not even close. NOT EVEN CLOSE.

as for aramis entering his prime, you have GOT TO BE KIDDING. Seriously. Theres nothing to say that he's entering his prime.

[Scartissue]

as for aramis entering his prime, you have GOT TO BE KIDDING. Seriously. Theres nothing to say that he's entering his prime.

What happened when DLee in 2005? Oh yeah, he had his best year by far. How old was he? Let me guess...30? Players can have enormous years for no other reason than they are hitting their stride. How old was Sosa when he developed a better eye? Age 30. Juan Pierre was never one to draw walks, but this year, at age 30, is drawing more walks than ever. I'm not saying 30 is a magical number, but it's within the range of ages when things can happen dramatically.

BTW, Derosa showed he could be patient on occasion last year. But nothing like fukodome. Not even close. NOT EVEN CLOSE.

This statement makes zero sense. Derosa's not like Fukudome. Never said he was. What I said was Derosa hasn't improved signficantly from last year in terms of getting on base. His OBP differential is higher by 11 points, which may not be the product of any outside changes, especially considering it's also a much smaller sample size. Players improve by that margin all the time. If you are going to praise Fukudome for the changes he's made, then you should be looking at how guys have changed from the year before. And players also regress--see DLee.

[rockin500]

What happened when DLee in 2005? Oh yeah, he had his best year by far. How old was he? Let me guess...30? Players can have enormous years for no other reason than they are hitting their stride. How old was Sosa when he developed a better eye? Age 30. Juan Pierre was never one to draw walks, but this year, at age 30, is drawing more walks than ever. I'm not saying 30 is a magical number, but it's within the range of ages when things can happen dramatically.

career year is what it was. Derrek lee was already well into his prime years when 2005 came around. a players prime usually starts at the age of 27 or so. Sure some start later, but Aramis is already in his prime years. He may hit a peak this year or even next, but if you look at his numbers he's already well into it.