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Cubs with a winning record in 2014

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  • Cubs with a winning record in 2014

    The Cubs have been godawful for awhile now and look to be godawful this year as well. So what do the players and team have to do to get to a winning record this year? What follows is this man's answer to that question.

    I'll use a baseline of 48 wins as replacement level and whenever I give a win figure that is what I think a player will add to this number by playing at the level he is projected to play by me. With that explained here goes.

    Let's get the biggest question out of the way first. Will the Cubs get Tanaka or not? I'll assume they do and if they don't the road to 82 wins gets a lot harder. Yu Darvish his first year in the league was worth about 4 wins and last year he was worth 6 wins. Tanaka will need to be about a 5 win player for the Cubs to have a shot at a winning season.

    Tanaka- 5 wins

    So now that he is out of the way let us assume that the Cubs will be done with making major transactions this offseason after Tanaka. Which means we'll be assuming that who they have now will for the most part be the players they use this year and that if they go out and get somebody it will likely be of the same caliber and quality as the players they currently have.

    Catcher: Castillo-4 wins
    This number of wins is really for Castillo and Kottaras combined. The key here is that Castillo needs to show he is legit while also staying in the lineup much more often than he did in 2013. Kottaras will largely be a zero but he needs to play at a level that doesn't cost the Cubs wins. So Castillo needs to play about 15 to 20 more games at the level he did in 2013 for this to happen.

    First Base: Rizzo-4.5 wins
    Rizzo needs to hit like he did in 2012 while playing the same good defense he has so far and not cost teams runs on the basepath over a full season to get to this win total.

    Second Base: Barney-1 wins
    Being generous here with Barney as he basically needs to hit like he did in 2012 and 2011 just to get to around replacement or slight above.

    Shortstop: Castro-4 wins
    If Castro can rebound to an offensive level similar 2011-2012 while making strides defensively he can give the Cubs bout 4 wins of production.

    Third Base: Valbuena-1.5 wins
    This like the catcher spot is really a combination of two players; Valbuena and Murphy or whomever. The Cubs basically need around league average production out of third base this year to have a chance at a winning record.

    Left Field: Junior Lake 1 win
    Yikes. Here comes the big risks. If Junior Lake can repeat what he did last year this year over a full season or if the Cubs can get that from sort of hydra platoon out there they can get this win.

    Center Field: Ruggiano/Sweeney-1 win.
    Honestly I'm not expecting much out this spot. Ruggiano has to bounce back somewhat while Sweeney continues to perform his sub role well.

    Right Field: Schierholtz-1.5 wins
    Schierholtz and company repeat what they did last year.

    Starters
    Wood- 3 wins--repeat of last year
    Samardzija- 2 wins- Needs to pitch like it is 2012 again.
    Jackson- 1.5 win- Needs to find a place between his numbers in 2012 and 2013. Something like a 90 ERA+
    5th spot Hydra-1 win. Needs to not be a sinkhole

    Bullpen-3 wins Easier said then done. The pen has to be solid for them to get these wins.

    So there you have it-82 wins in 2014. Now then if Tanaka doesn't come then the Cubs will need 5 wins from somewhere else to make it happen.

  • #2
    Every other team would have to plummet off the earth...they will probably be the 2nd worst team in all of baseball this year

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    • #3
      Wit Tanaka now with the Yankees that is 5 wins that the other Cubs will have to accrue in order for the Cubs to have a winning record. Add a win to Castillo, a win between CF and RF, and 3 wins to the rest of the pitching staff.

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      • #4
        epstein doesn't care whether he wins 84 or 59 all he wants to do is creating a winner sometimes down the road. of course the owner might see that differently because he wants to sell tickets and cubs fans would be rightfully pissed if they pay big bucks for watching a crap team but I think if epstein could I think he would tank the next 2-3 years to to bring the payroll down completely and stack up the farm system.
        I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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        • #5
          They will be completely unwatchable

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          • #6
            I've watched every cubs game on T.v and the ones I couldn't; I listened to on radio, so someone finds them watchable.

            Point of mild interest:
            Cubs won/loss thru may and into June.....22 won, 23 lost. Not world series bound but going in the right direction....
            They actually have played better baseball then the white sox(In terms of wins).
            Go cubbies!

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Iowanic View Post
              I've watched every cubs game on T.v and the ones I couldn't; I listened to on radio, so someone finds them watchable.

              Point of mild interest:
              Cubs won/loss thru may and into June.....22 won, 23 lost. Not world series bound but going in the right direction....
              They actually have played better baseball then the white sox(In terms of wins).
              Go cubbies!
              Well, my hat off to you...I would like to see them progress as you point out, but much of the talent is in the minors...I think bryant will be must see tv

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              • #8
                Hopefully the game on August 10 will be worth remembering.
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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Phantom Dreamer View Post
                  Hopefully the game on August 10 will be worth remembering.
                  And why is that date important?

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Cap78 View Post
                    And why is that date important?
                    Are you a Chicago Cubs fan? The Cubs have been celebrating Wrigley's 100th anniversary this season by wearing various "throwback" uniforms. On August 10, the Cubs are scheduled to wear athletic wear from 1988. However, since Majestic is MLB's uniform supplier, we'll probably be underwhelmed.
                    The Ultimate Baseball Look

                    Modern Synthetic Baseball Fields

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Phantom Dreamer View Post
                      Are you a Chicago Cubs fan? The Cubs have been celebrating Wrigley's 100th anniversary this season by wearing various "throwback" uniforms. On August 10, the Cubs are scheduled to wear athletic wear from 1988. However, since Majestic is MLB's uniform supplier, we'll probably be underwhelmed.
                      Well I better break out my tight rolled Bugle Boys and boat shoes and join the celebration

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                      • #12
                        It's just something, if done right, the fans, the consumers, can relate to.
                        Last edited by Phantom Dreamer; 06-22-2014, 01:09 AM.
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                        Modern Synthetic Baseball Fields

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                        • #13
                          Unfortunately the Cubs hitting is still atrocious and if that continues this team will collapse. Their pitching cannot stay this good for long.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Ubiquitous View Post
                            Unfortunately the Cubs hitting is still atrocious and if that continues this team will collapse. Their pitching cannot stay this good for long.
                            Their offense is bad...to me that is purposeful from front office...no doubt turning off fans like me who are supposed to be patient...if these minor leaguers do not pan out, get rid of front office personnel immediately

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                            • #15
                              far away from a winning record but I think the cubs became more enjoyable in the second half by calling up some of the young talent. rizzo is having a great season and while baez and alcantara don't get on base consistently they already had some great moments showing some potential.

                              despite trading away half of their starting pitching the cubs have gone .500 since the ASB (.426 before the break). I expected the cubs to collapse totally after samardzia and hammel (both had very nice seasons) are gone but they did the opposite and even picked it up.

                              I think that is a good sign for cubs fans.
                              I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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