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Cubs in the playoffs in 2015

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  • Cubs in the playoffs in 2015

    For 2015 Steamer is predicting 17.5 WAR for the Cub hitters. Call it 16 to be conservative. It predicts 7.3 WAR on the pitching side. Steamer has been less accurate on the pitching side so the spread on their WAR for next year is probably going to be much greater. Say 5 to 9 WAR. So that is 22.5 to 26.5 wins above replacement for next year which puts them at 70 to 74 wins in 2015. So the Cubs need about 14 to 18 additional wins to have a reasonable shot at the postseason next year. So where can they get those 14 to 18 wins?

    For starters Arrieta and Hendricks have to beat their projections. This year in 38 starts they put up 6.4 wins and are projected to put up 3.3 wins in 51 starts. We'll need 3 to 4 more wins out of them and throw in another win for Wada and 2 more wins for the bullpen as well. So that is 6 to 7 wins right there and then add in another win for a better than projected Wood.

    On offense Castro has to move forward so add 1 win there and that is really about it for the hitters. How about we throw in another win just to say the youngsters will need to be slightly better than proected? So that is 2 extra wins. Now we're at 9 to 10 extra wins and we will need somewhere around 4 to 9 more wins to get into the playoffs. Where can we get it from?

    Well, we still need at least 1 more starting pitcher. So how about we call it 4 more wins for the phantom FA pitcher? Now we're somewhere in contention though probably a handful of games out of it. So it looks to me like the Cubs need to add at least one more premium grade A FA this offseason if they want to compete next year and set themselves up well for several years to come. Would the easiest route be two Grade A starting pitchers?




    batters.JPGpitchers.JPG

  • #2
    you forgot kris bryant, didn't you?

    He is considered a superstar kind of player and steamer expects him to post about 4.0 WAR. also I expect rizzo and soler do slightly better, maybe one win more for each of them. bryant replaces valbuena for only a 1.5 gain but valbuena will likely move to second (I don't think baez will be ready) so he is replacing maybe a 1 WAR 2B, that means he would gain 3 WAR.

    that would be 5 WAR gained.

    regarding the pitchers arrieta might be the real deal (he has great stuff) but I have doubts about hendricks. I think they need a top pitcher and maybe another solid one (I don't really believe in Wada either).

    also isn't a replacement team supposed to win about 52? that would project them to 74-78.
    Last edited by dominik; 10-18-2014, 02:57 AM.
    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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    • #3
      Bryant is going to be in the minors for at least 20 games. So that means his 4.0 WAR would be a 3.5 based on playing time. Valbuena replacing Baez increases the WAR out of second by half a run. So that is a 1.5 win increase over projections from Steamer but it doesn't really move the yardstick I mentioned by much if at all because I already threw in some increases for the youngsters and increase in performance from Castro.


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      Last edited by Ubiquitous; 12-07-2018, 05:23 AM.

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      • #4
        I think you will see them add at least one FA starting pitcher. Hopefully, they are in the Lester sweepstakes. Perhaps they can come out on top. Then also add a pitcher like Maeda from Japan. That puts their 1-4 as Lester, Arrieta, Maeda, Hendricks. Then keep Wada as the 5th, which could also make Maeda's transition to the States easier. Turner needs to add another solid pitch and he could be long relief, emergency starter.

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        • #5
          Cubs are getting close. Landed Maddon today. But they are still at least a year away from competing for the playoffs. They are in a tough division too.

          G Man

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          • #6
            Originally posted by gman5431 View Post
            Cubs are getting close. Landed Maddon today. But they are still at least a year away from competing for the playoffs. They are in a tough division too.

            G Man
            It will be interesting what they do in the offseason. If they go out and land a big name starter, they could be the team to beat in the Central.
            "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

            "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

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            • #7
              Originally posted by chicagowhitesox1173 View Post
              It will be interesting what they do in the offseason. If they go out and land a big name starter, they could be the team to beat in the Central.
              Easy now. I think they'll be better in 2015, but i'm not sure they're ready to jump up to "the team to beat." The Cardinals are the Cardinals. The Pirates have made the playoffs two years running. The Brewers were in first place most of the season. The Reds under performed but have the core together to be competitive at least one more year. I think the Cubs will be better, but the team to beat... even if they land a James Shields or a Jon Lester.... not just yet.

              G Man

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              • #8
                I think the Cubs played close to 500 ball after the All-star break. Had they not gone on a 7 or 8 game losing streak in September, they would have been one of the top teams--post allstar break. That's why I think if they land a ace pitcher, that they could be a tough team to beat. I seriously doubt they got Joe Madden for player development. It's not like the Cardinals are getting any younger and although I still believe the Cardinals are a good team, the Cubs could possibly be better. I just don't see the Brewers or Cardinals pushing this Cubs team around anymore, especially if they land Lester or Shields. It may seem early that the Cubs would be considered contenders but these kids are ready to win now and they will not play another season for next year.
                "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

                "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

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                • #9
                  There run differential was atrocious during that nice little stretch of theirs. Right now I'd say that calling them a 73 win team for 2015 is reasonable.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Ubiquitous View Post
                    There run differential was atrocious during that nice little stretch of theirs. Right now I'd say that calling them a 73 win team for 2015 is reasonable.
                    They won 73 games in 2014, I find it hard to believe that they wont improve on that. A lot of their success in 2015 will depend on who they target in the winter meetings. If they do make a big splash, then that type of momentum will deff carry over into 2015. Plus we have all seen sub 500 teams who pick up key pieces do very well the next year. I don't think these Cubs are the Cubs of years past either and I don't see Joe Madden playing for next year. The Cubs already have a good core of players who are probably tired of playing for next year too.
                    "(Shoeless Joe Jackson's fall from grace is one of the real tragedies of baseball. I always thought he was more sinned against than sinning." -- Connie Mack

                    "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans. They were as miserable as the Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but always had the good decency to keep it to themselves. And when they finally won the World Series, they celebrated without annoying every other fan in the country."--Jim Caple, ESPN (Jan. 12, 2011)

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Ubiquitous View Post
                      There run differential was atrocious during that nice little stretch of theirs. Right now I'd say that calling them a 73 win team for 2015 is reasonable.
                      They were a 73 win team in 2014. They didn't hire Maddon to win 73 again in 2015. They will compete for the second Wild Card spot, imho. Note: I didn't say they would get it, but I think that would be a nice goal for next season with Bryant coming up after April and the other young talent developing. The question will be who they pick up via FA.

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                      • #12
                        In order to compete next year a lot of things have to go right for the Cubs this offseason and during the season. Arrieta, Hendricks, and Wada have to basically do what they did this year for an entire season. Bryant has to step right in and be a fringe all-star candidate. Rizzo has to be a monster with the bat again. The youngsters like Soler and Baez have to take a step forward be as good as a major league starter, and the Cubs need to sign a big FA pitcher that lives up to the hype and pay.

                        The talent that is currently on the team played well enough to win about 68 to 73 games a year in 2014. The youth and acquisitions have to improve by around 15 to 20 wins to contend for a spot. That's a tall order.

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                        • #13
                          I will estimate it will be another 1-2 years before they are ready to compete at a playoff level...Baez is the biggest wildcard to me...he has tremendous power, but his all or absolute nothing ability may be a huge problem that could be unfixable at this point...not sure if the team wants to spend a ton at this point on guys if the team may not be ready yet...big time free agents may not wish to come quite yet with a team that is not quite there

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                          • #14
                            if the cubs really get lester and another mid Rotation starter I think they can win a WC.
                            I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by dominik View Post
                              if the cubs really get lester and another mid Rotation starter I think they can win a WC.
                              That would be rather surprising to me...this young team needs to adjust to the bigs first, imho...I view them like the royals, a few years ago...may take some time...but, I sure hope you are right

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