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Just how deadly Dusty Baker can be to this team

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  • Just how deadly Dusty Baker can be to this team

    Last year Dusty routinely and stubbornly refused to address the leadoff problem. This year he is doing more of the same. but what is it costing the Cubs? Some people will tell you that lineups don't matter and that the difference between lineups would only amount to a few runs over a season but is that really true?

    Let us look into it using the 2005 data.
    In 2005 the #1 had this line:
    Code:
    	AB	Hits	TB	RBI	HR	2B	Triples	PA	BB	SH	AVG	OBP	SLG	SF
    O outs	306	75	111	10	7	15	0	338	24	8	0.245	0.293	0.363	0
    1 out	181	48	70	19	4	8	1	199	16	2	0.265	0.318	0.387	2
    2 outs	202	46	66		1	5	1	217	15	0	0.228	0.281	0.327	0
    	689	169	247	29	12	28	2	754	55	10	0.245	0.296	0.358	2
    For starters lets just focus in on scenarios with no outs. The league (and that is including the Cubs leadoff hitter) league had this line for the #1 man locked into Cubs playing time. Meaning the ratios stay the same but instead of viewing it with thousands and thousands of at bats it is locked into Cubs #1 PA totals so that we can easily compare homers, doubles, and so forth.

    NL-2005-#1 hitter
    Code:
    Leage#1	AB	Hits	TB	RBI	HR	2B	Triples	PA	BB	SH	AVG	OBP	SLG	SF	outs	singles
    0 outs	304	86	127		6	15	3	338	26	5	0.284	0.332	0.417	3	226	62
    Now then simply having a league average #1 hitter would have added the Cubs 12 extra hits for 16 total bases. Plus they would have walked 2 more times as well. They do all that plus give up 13 fewer outs. Finding a league average #1 hitter (possibly Murton? or just not sitting back and actually going out and getting somebody) would have resulted in 13 more favorable situations over the season, and this was just for the #1 hitter batting with no outs. If we then assume that all the bases were empty in these plate appearances the league average hitter was 10 runs better then the Cubs leadoff hitter just in no outs situations. No the men on situation scenario isn't totally true, Cubs leadoff hitters came to bat 46 times with men on base and no outs. Fortunately for the study they didn't hit any homers with men on base which would lead to the greatest aleration of numbers. But in going the other way a better leadoff hitter with the men on base situation could have done better then just 10 runs.

    So already in less then half the #1 plate appearances we have found 10 runs lost by Dusty's stubborn refusal to play somebody besides a blackhole there.
    Now then doing this for 1 out results in the average leadoff hitter scoring 2 more runs then the Cubs #1 hitter.

    For 2 outs it is the league average is 5 runs better. Add it all up and the average #1 hitter is at least 17 runs better then what the Cubs had last year.

    If the Cubs could have found a .282/.342/.406 hitter or better for the #1 spot they would have gained at least 17 runs last year. I would personally add about 8 more runs and say the Cubs #1 hitter cost them about 25 runs last year due to their outs and inability to get on base in front of Derrek Lee.

  • #2
    The problem is there is NO ONE else to address the leadoff situation with at the current time. With no Lee, Walker HAS to hit in the bulk of the lineup, and he's the ideal guy to slot in either 1st or 2nd. Outside of him, there isn't an inhouse option, no Murton isn't one.

    Yes Pierre is stinking it up, despite his 4 stolen bases today, at the top of the order. But he was brought here to man the top of lineup not tool around in the 8 spot. If the lineup was healthy, then we would have already seen Pierre moved down in the order to try and find himself. But right now, he's needed at the top.
    What a Batted Ball is Worth (in terms of a run):
    Line Drive: .356
    HBP: .342
    Non-Intentional Walk: .315
    Intentional Walk: .176
    Outfield Fly: .035
    Groundball: -.101
    Bunts: -.103
    Infield Fly: -.243
    Strikeout: -.287
    It's now officially Doctor Bob Sacamento, D.C., C.S.C.S., and working on my D.A.B.C.O. (Diplomate American Board of Chiropractic Orthopedics)

    Comment


    • #3
      Walker does not NEED to hit in the middle of the order. Rameriz/Jones/Nevin/Barret can man the 3 - 5 slots adaquetely while Walker hits at the top. Murton has been slumping this month, but for the first two months of the season, he would've been a fine choice for the top of the lineup as well.

      And Pierre is not "needed" at the top. No team needs a leadoff man with a .290 OBP.
      "I will calmly wait for my induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame."
      - Sammy Sosa

      "Get a comfy chair, Sammy, cause its gonna be a long wait."
      - Craig Ashley (AKA Windy City Fan)

      Comment


      • #4
        Anybody who cannot get on base is not needed at the top. Pierre is not needed at the top if he cannot get on base. Why is he needed at the top? Speed right? Well if he can't get on base then speed is useless. The #1 spot gets the most PA of the team. Keeping a blackhole in this spot on the off chance that he might get on base and he might use his speed is folly.

        Pierre has a .290 OBP the Cubs are 13 games under .500 they have nothing to lose, nothing to risk by simply experimenting at this point.

        Comment


        • #5
          If the lineup was healthy, then we would have already seen Pierre moved down in the order to try and find himself.
          Sure he would. Dusty might have moved him down for 1 game, maybe 2.
          Walker doesn't have to be in the middle of the lineup.
          Walker doesn't have to hit anywhere and Dusty proves it by keeping him on the bench in favor of Neifi OBP Perez.

          On Wednesday:
          Pierre & Neifi were 1-7 -- no runs scored
          The 3,4,5 hitters were 8-12
          Walker was watching from the bench


          LF - Murton
          2B - Walker
          C - Barrett
          3B - Aramis
          RF - Jacque
          1B - Nevin
          SS - Cedeno
          CF - Pierre

          That would definitely be more productive, but the demons in Dusty's head keep telling him to pencil Neifi into the #2 spot. He also can't resist the urge to platoon Walker & Nevin.

          Now he's talking about platooning Murton with Bynum...

          "Freddie brings some things to the table that give us a different look," Baker said. "You see the speed he has. He's a pretty good hitter, has good power—surprising power for his physique. And also he's a good defender. Sometimes you're going to need that."

          Dusty doesn't get it. He never will.
          beware of the censorship police

          Comment


          • #6
            There are times when one can see Pierre's potential as a LOH. For instance last night. When he gets on base he is un-stoppable. Of course there in lies the problem, when he doesn't get on base he's a black hole, "tho strong in the field". Look to the southside and you see some of the same problems. Tho better then Pierre ,Posednik is only hitting .247 , but his OBP of .343. Which isn't awful, tho below his average from last year. The difference is Ozzie will sit him, or even platoon him.

            True the Sox have an awesome bench. And Pablo Ozuna is a very capable fill in, most of all at LOH. Both Pods and Pieere have been helpless against Lefties this year, most of all Pods. Pods has been a little better with runners in scoring position. Both are better on the road, which appears to indicate the pressure on the LOH when at the home throne.

            Of course the big difference is the Sox have put up the power numbers that takes the glare off of LOH issues. Pierre has a lot of pressure on him, you can see it in his face. He knows with all else that's going on with the team an awful lot depends on his getting on base, stealing, and small-balling.
            "Let me start by telling you this: I have never used steroids. Period. I don't know how to say it any more clearly than that. Never." :hyper:

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Whitesoxnut
              There are times when one can see Pierre's potential as a LOH. For instance last night. When he gets on base he is un-stoppable. Of course there in lies the problem, when he doesn't get on base he's a black hole, "tho strong in the field". Of course the big difference is the Sox have put up the power numbers that takes the glare off of LOH issues. Pierre has a lot of pressure on him, you can see it in his face. He knows with all else that's going on with the team an awful lot depends on his getting on base, stealing, and small-balling.
              In his last 19 games, Pierre is 23 for 82 with 8 runs, 4 2B, 1 3B, 5 rbi, 5 bb, 4 k, 10/11 sb, .280/.321/.354/.675. So it's definately looking like he's turning the corner. His OBP still sucks for a leadoff man, but he's always been a low walk/low strikeout guy, we knew that going into trading for him though.
              What a Batted Ball is Worth (in terms of a run):
              Line Drive: .356
              HBP: .342
              Non-Intentional Walk: .315
              Intentional Walk: .176
              Outfield Fly: .035
              Groundball: -.101
              Bunts: -.103
              Infield Fly: -.243
              Strikeout: -.287
              It's now officially Doctor Bob Sacamento, D.C., C.S.C.S., and working on my D.A.B.C.O. (Diplomate American Board of Chiropractic Orthopedics)

              Comment


              • #8
                My gut tells me he's turning the corner to. he just seems to be seeing the ball better and appears more patient for a good pitch. Yesterday the Cubs were 0-9 hitting with runners in scoring position, including leaving Pierre on, "they left womak on 3'rd with no outs right?"

                So...there you have it. Dusty's Chicago teams have consistently underperformed as has he as a manager. I will also say that sitting in Wrigley the other day I observed that Cub fans aren't exactly the "party and forget baseball" types that people often describe them as. There was a lot of grim faces out there, tho they are generally well behaved. I also sense support for Baker drying up.
                "Let me start by telling you this: I have never used steroids. Period. I don't know how to say it any more clearly than that. Never." :hyper:

                Comment


                • #9
                  Pierre is on a 5 game hitting streak with 4 of those games being 2 hit games. Pierre so far has had outbursts like this but he has never been able to maintain it so far this year. People were saying the same thing at the beginning of June and then he reeled off 4 pretty much useless games with the bat in a row before going on his 5 games hit streak.

                  Yeah sure Pierre can turn it around but what he is going to turn it into? It's not like the guy is going to bat .310/.375/.400 from here on out. If he does turn it around what can we expect from here on out? Well I would say around .285/.330/.335. That still isn't leadoff material.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by burger eater
                    Walker doesn't have to hit anywhere and Dusty proves it by keeping him on the bench in favor of Neifi OBP Perez.

                    Oh my God, don't start with the hooray for Neifi posts. Neifi playing proves Dusty's ignorance.

                    Comment

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