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Is Jason Heyward really that much better than Dexter Fowler?

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  • Herr28
    replied
    Yes, Jason Heyward really is better than Dexter Fowler.

    Leave a comment:


  • Bothrops Atrox
    replied
    Originally posted by benali View Post
    Everybody in the media seems super-excited about Jason Heyward joining the Cubs. But I wonder -- is he really that much of a step up from Dexter Fowler?

    Looking at their stats on baseball-reference.com, I don't see it. While Jason had a stronger BA last season, in general their numbers are pretty comparable for BA, OBP, SP, etc. Jason has the edge in homers, but other than that these players look very similar to me. So I don't see why we paid a huge premium to get Heyward.

    What impressed me about Fowler was late last spring when he had his batting slump. He came back after the all star break with a reworked approach that brought his edge back and inched his BA up over the season's second half. Overall he's been the best lead-off man for the Cubs in recent memory, very good at working the walks and a nice combination of above-average speed and decent pop at the plate.

    So am I wrong? Is Heyward really so much better to deserve all this publicity and his salary premium to replace Fowler?
    Heyward is about 15% better in OPS+, wRC+, etc. That is actually quite a bit. Most importantly...Heyward is historically good defensively at RF and Folwer is below average as a CF. According to UZR and DRS, Heyward is about +30 runs defensively over Folwer per season. That is a massive gap. Even if Heyward can't separate defensively as much in CF as he did in RF -he will still be much more valuable than Fowler going forward.

    Also...he is 3 years younger than Fowler. Dexter would make a lot more money if he were 26 and not 29. People pay heavily for those 3 peak years.

    Leave a comment:


  • Is Jason Heyward really that much better than Dexter Fowler?

    Everybody in the media seems super-excited about Jason Heyward joining the Cubs. But I wonder -- is he really that much of a step up from Dexter Fowler?

    Looking at their stats on baseball-reference.com, I don't see it. While Jason had a stronger BA last season, in general their numbers are pretty comparable for BA, OBP, SP, etc. Jason has the edge in homers, but other than that these players look very similar to me. So I don't see why we paid a huge premium to get Heyward.

    What impressed me about Fowler was late last spring when he had his batting slump. He came back after the all star break with a reworked approach that brought his edge back and inched his BA up over the season's second half. Overall he's been the best lead-off man for the Cubs in recent memory, very good at working the walks and a nice combination of above-average speed and decent pop at the plate.

    So am I wrong? Is Heyward really so much better to deserve all this publicity and his salary premium to replace Fowler?

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