Still a lot of Free Agent SP

[redlegsfan21]

I was on mlb.com and looking at the remaining free agent SP and there are some really good pitchers still out there.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/hot_stove/y2005/free_agent_tracker.jsp?fastatus=unsigned&subscope=pos&teamPosCode=S

Is there any chance that the Reds will try to get a pitcher.

[moebarguy]

I see Roger Clemens and Jeff Weaver -- and Clemens is either going to retire or play for the Astros, Rangers, Yankees, or Red Sox.

[Ravenlord]

worthless: Astacio, Brown, Erickson, Fogg, Lima, Obermueller, Rueter, Valdez

worth less than $1 million: Dreifort (as reliver), Miller, Wright

worth $1-$3 million: Weaver (one year deal only)

not worth guarenteed contract: Santos


who i expect the Reds to pursue: Astacio, Fogg, Rueter, Dreifort

[moebarguy]

Actually, Weaver is a really good pitcher, and is worth closer to $7.5 per.

[Ravenlord]

Actually, Weaver is a really good pitcher, and is worth closer to $7.5 per.

nope.

Home	Year	ERA	IP	K/BB	BB/9	K/9	H/9	HR/9	WHIP	OBA	SLG	BABIP
DET	1999	5.55	163.2	1.97	3.08	6.27	9.68	1.48	1.42	350	478	296
DET	2000	4.32	200	2.52	2.34	6.12	9.23	1.17	1.29	321	432	289
DET	2001	4.08	229.1	2.11	2.67	5.97	9.22	0.75	1.32	326	409	295
DET	2002	3.18	121.2	2.21	2.44	5.55	8.28	0.30	1.19	304	347	278
NYY	2002	4.04	78	3.17	1.73	6.58	9.35	1.38	1.23	300	437	283
NYY	2003	5.99	159.1	1.90	2.65	5.25	11.92	0.90	1.62	371	481	343
LAD	2004	4.01	220	2.01	2.74	6.26	8.96	0.78	1.30	323	399	293
LAD	2005	4.22	224	3.57	1.73	6.31	8.84	1.41	1.17	305	435	273
-	Total	4.44	1396	2.31	2.46	6.04	9.41	1.02	1.32	326	428	295

a HR/9 leap like what Weaver had last year in a very pitcher friendly park is usually indicitive of bad things coming in the next year or two...especially when having that lucky of a BABIP.

and beware of pitchers who when being slightly BABIP lucky (every year except 99, 01, and 04) is still only putting up average to just slightly better than average numbers.

even if there were no concerning trends, he's definetly not worth the 4 years and $40 million that Boras is demanding. not that i think any team will pay that, and i think Weaver will be lucky to get two years and a third year being a team option.

in all likelyhood, if Weaver goes to a pitching neutral park, he'll most likely have a year like Eric Milton did in 2004 (without the very good BABIP). if he ends up in a slight hitter's park, he'll probably have a year very similar to the one Ramon Ortiz had last year. and if he goes to one of the three parks that turn flyball hitters into Ted Williams...well, his 2003 numbers probably aren't far off what will happen.

[moebarguy]

Granted, if Weaver leaves a pitcher's park, his stats won't be as good, but he's still a good pitcher, and will get only better according to Ron Chandler (author of Baseball Forecaster and baseballhq.com)