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Will the Reds actually improve the rotation?

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  • Will the Reds actually improve the rotation?

    I'm not talking about minor improvements like Tanner Roark. I'm sure he's a swell guy, but we need a top-of-the-rotation guy. Could the Reds actually land a Corey Kluber? Dallas Keuchel? Will they even re-sign Matt Harvey?
    The Writer's Journey

  • #2
    Kluber is a staff ace. Keuchel is a #2 guy. Harvey is about where Roark is - back of the rotation filler. So the examples provided - though those are names I've seen bandied about - aren't great examples of a "top-of-the-rotation" guy. The Reds have already increased payroll approximately $15 million. Plus 10 for Roark, minus 5 for Hamilton and plus 10 in estimated arbitration raises (due in another month or so). How much higher will the payroll go?

    Keuchel or Harvey would only cost money. Kluber, OTOH, would cost major prospects, which brings me to my big problem with this offseason.

    The Reds botched the rebuild by (a) unwisely postponing it (b) overpricing their own players and (c) focusing on quantity over quality. The returns they got from all the Jocketty/Williams moves have been minimal outside of Suarez and the idea that the team's offense is championship quality and that the rotation is the only thing keeping the team from competing is yet another fairy tale. The front office is now pulling the classic Reds move of believing the rebuild is much more successful and further along than it actually is. Just two SP and a replacement for Billy Hamilton away from challenging for a wild card, right? Gimme a break.

    The team ought to be in sell mode right now, getting something for Scooter Gennett while they can and turning Raisel Iglesias (and maybe even Suarez) into multiple blue chip prospects. I would much rather punt another couple of years to have a genuine core of talent arrive in the majors within a couple years of each other than executing yet another false start, which is what the team is doing this winter (IMHO).

    That said, a savvy free agent signing here or there, or even a clever trade (Barnhart and a couple of lower ranked prospects for Realmuto? Bailey and a prospect for Puig and Wood?) could serve the purpose of appearing to do something while also putting the team in position to flip one or more of these rentals mid-season for more future pieces.

    Deeply disappointed in the Reds front office, but that's been true since Wayne Krivsky was fired. The team would be better situated to pour some of that increased payroll into scouting, player development and analytics instead.

    To answer your question, no, I don't see the team acquiring a genuine ace. Other teams will demand our top prospects and I can't see Senzel going, not because the Reds wouldn't do it, but because I don't believe they had a plan to replace Hamilton so Senzel is our starting CF until we find out otherwise.
    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

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    • #3
      I don't trust the Reds' ability to scout young talent enough to trust any rebuilding program. I don't want to see Trammell or Senzel traded obviously, but I'm afraid the Reds won't handle them right anyway. So they could become stars somewhere else, or misused by the Reds. I want to win now. I'm impatient, I realize that. But I'm not getting any younger, and I can't go through another 30 years of so-called "rebuilding" until the next championship.
      The Writer's Journey

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      • #4
        Sonny Gray, Alex Wood and Tanner Roark were the designated newcomers to the rotation, which leaves us Luis Castillo and a gazillion so-called prospects acquiring by the Jocketty/Williams regime over the past half-dozen years. I'm going to take a shot in the dark and guess that this is not what you had in mind this winter?
        "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
        "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
        "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
        "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

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        • #5
          Every year there is one team that acquires 3-4 guys who are "names" or who once were "names" that people in the media think are sneaky playoff candidates. These guys are usually not nearly as good as people think and only marginally better than they guys they replace. The Padres had one of those a few years ago, the White Sox a few years back come to mind. The Reds are that team this year and may improve a tad, but will not make a lot of heyday in a loaded division.

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          • #6
            I thought Gray was a good pick-up, but I'm worried now about his endurance. Roark...I think is a downgrade to be honest. Wood may be the best of the three, but starting the year on the DL is not promising.

            I can't believe Keuchel is still without a team.
            The Writer's Journey

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            • #7
              The reds actually led the league in fWAR pitching currently. Of course it didn't help much because every hitter either got hurt or underperformed.
              I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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