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  • Originally posted by Shea Knight View Post

    He's regressed how?

    Leaving 2017 aside since that was essentially a non-year for him, last year:

    13-4 with a 3.03 ERA, 155 strikeouts, 2 complete games, of which 1 was a shutout...that's below 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA and 218 strikeouts, but not such a steep drop-off that I'd call it a regression. What's more, the 2016 team backing him was "better" (or, rather, less bad) than the 2018 squad.

    A WAR of 5 in 2016, and of 4 in 2018--again, technically lower, but again, not enough to warrant calling it a regression in my view.

    To sadly point to my old lost cause, Harvey's record from 2015-19 going from 13-8 to 4-10, 5-7, and 7-9, his ERA being 2.71, 4.86, 6.70, 4.94, his strikeouts being 188, 67, 76, 131, and a WAR of 4.8 to -0.1, -1.0, -0.4 when the Mets traded him to the Reds, and 1.3 in his starts with Cincy.

    THAT'S what regression looks like. Sadly, that's what your career falling off a cliff looks like.

    So while I think it's fair to say Noah's maybe stagnated, I'd argue he hasn't regressed. The longer that ERA sits above 3.30, the more he's going to face scrutiny, but to this point, he's still a more experienced version of the 2015 fireballer, one that knows how to use secondary pitches better now. He could still be more.

    That said, Harvey was the returning "guy" in 2015, and whenever both have been healthy, deGrom's always been the "guy" over Syndergaard, so he's always been the second-best on the team for me. A second-best you'd love to have as your second-best, and when he's on he's good enough to still be the ace on loads of teams in this league, but aside from 2016 when he was the last man standing, I've never seen him topping deGrom.

    Then again, I also thought after 2015 the Mets had a repaired Comeback Player of the Year Dark Knight who was as intense as ever and had been a few too many pitches from one of the great Mets playoff pitching performances, that being the guy who wanted to keep pitching hinted at him being the kind of guy with the give-it-all determination you want in an ace, and that Harvey could keep being that guy and bounce back with a vengeance.

    Sooooo when it comes to the relative trajectories of this era's Mets pitchers--I've been wrong before, lol.
    Look at 2016 - then tell me he didnt regress.

    He had 31 starts in 2016 with a better ERA/ERA+ Led the league in FIP. Dominant starter. He was 23 years old.

    That was his peak so yes he regressed.

    2017 - having no brains cost him the season, and in 2018 - he had a nice season, but not as dominant as he was in 2016. Not my opinion its a fact. The numbers say so.

    So what do you call it when someone was at the top of their game and then not so much. I call that a regression. That doesnt mean he sucks or I dont want him on the team. What it means is his progression has gone the other way.....in other words its a reverse progression.........I am trying not to say regression again.

    If you thought deGrom was the better pitcher in 2016...then I dont know what to tell you.

    Last edited by Paulypal; 04-17-2019, 01:54 PM.

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    • Originally posted by Paulypal View Post

      Look at 2016 - then tell me he didnt regress.

      He had 31 starts in 2016 with a better ERA/ERA+ Led the league in FIP. Dominant starter. He was 23 years old.

      That was his peak so yes he regressed.

      2017 - having no brains cost him the season, and in 2018 - he had a nice season, but not as dominant as he was in 2016. Not my opinion its a fact. The numbers say so.

      So what do you call it when someone was at the top of their game and then not so much. I call that a regression. That doesnt mean he sucks or I dont want him on the team. What it means is his progression has gone the other way.....in other words its a reverse progression.........I am trying not to say regression again.

      If you thought deGrom was the better pitcher in 2016...then I dont know what to tell you.
      So by that logic Joltin' Joe regressed after hitting in 56 straight? Ted Williams regressed after hitting .400? Pedro regressed after Pedro '99?

      OBVIOUSLY Noah's about as close to that as we're close to Noah. And yeah, going from absurd peaks to still great isn't regressing...but that's my point. A peak is a peak--by definition, it's rare and often a one-off thing.

      Let's HOPE Noah hasn't peaked yet.

      Really--going from "dominant" season to "nice" season isn't cause for alarm. Especially when he's only had 3 seasons' worth of starts or so, combining his call-up in 2015 with his early end in 2017. One dominant season sandwiched between a good start in 2015 and a nice season in 2018...that's fine.

      Not everyone's Sandy Koufax, having 5 dominant seasons in a row.

      If this year keeps going the way it's started (though he's pitched better than that ERA, he shouldn't have been left in to give up 4 to Minnesota, we all agreed on that) then that's one thing. Bot otherwise, some seasons are naturally going to be less dominant than others. Less dominant doesn't mean "regressed."

      Let's take deGrom 2016, then, a year where he WAS off, but if you had to look at the big picture, you would have taken the guy with less than a year in the majors vs. the guy who'd already won Rookie of the Year (flash in the pan award though that often is), been named to an All-Star team, been the #2 on a pennant-winning team, and hung tough in the playoffs after falling behind in a win-or-go-home Game 5 on the road in LA vs. the Dodgers?

      To be clear, I'd be happy with either deGrom or Noah any day. I've defended them enough times here I ought to seek PR fees, lol.

      But just because 2016 deGrom wasn't as good as 2014-5 deGrom 1. Didn't mean deGrom had "regressed" and 2. Didn't make Noah the better OVERALL choice.

      Same with Noah.

      It's also worth noting that Noah's 2016--the same age deGrom was in 2014. This rocky start notwithstanding, overall, he's still in line with deGrom 2014 form...he still has the next few years to get to deGrom 2018 form, if he can, or whatever Noah Age 26-30 form looks like.
      Last edited by Shea Knight; 04-18-2019, 12:12 AM.
      "Ya Gotta Believe!" -Tug McGraw ... "How we deal with death is at least as important as how we deal with life." -James T. Kirk ... "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." -Sherlock Holmes ... "It is out of the deepest depth that the highest must come to its height." -Friedrich Nietzsche ... "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet

      Comment


      • Matt Harvey gave up 5 runs to the Rangers last night...and his ERA went DOWN.

        From over 10.00 to an oh-so-lithe 9.64.

        You want regression? Again, THAT. IS. REGRESSION.
        "Ya Gotta Believe!" -Tug McGraw ... "How we deal with death is at least as important as how we deal with life." -James T. Kirk ... "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." -Sherlock Holmes ... "It is out of the deepest depth that the highest must come to its height." -Friedrich Nietzsche ... "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet

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        • DeGrom's start tomorrow is getting pushed to Saturday because he has illness.

          Jason Vargas vs. Adam Wainwright

          https://www.mlb.com/mets/roster/probable-pitchers

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Shea Knight View Post

            So by that logic Joltin' Joe regressed after hitting in 56 straight? Ted Williams regressed after hitting .400? Pedro regressed after Pedro '99?

            OBVIOUSLY Noah's about as close to that as we're close to Noah. And yeah, going from absurd peaks to still great isn't regressing...but that's my point. A peak is a peak--by definition, it's rare and often a one-off thing.

            Let's HOPE Noah hasn't peaked yet.

            Really--going from "dominant" season to "nice" season isn't cause for alarm. Especially when he's only had 3 seasons' worth of starts or so, combining his call-up in 2015 with his early end in 2017. One dominant season sandwiched between a good start in 2015 and a nice season in 2018...that's fine.

            Not everyone's Sandy Koufax, having 5 dominant seasons in a row.

            If this year keeps going the way it's started (though he's pitched better than that ERA, he shouldn't have been left in to give up 4 to Minnesota, we all agreed on that) then that's one thing. Bot otherwise, some seasons are naturally going to be less dominant than others. Less dominant doesn't mean "regressed."

            Let's take deGrom 2016, then, a year where he WAS off, but if you had to look at the big picture, you would have taken the guy with less than a year in the majors vs. the guy who'd already won Rookie of the Year (flash in the pan award though that often is), been named to an All-Star team, been the #2 on a pennant-winning team, and hung tough in the playoffs after falling behind in a win-or-go-home Game 5 on the road in LA vs. the Dodgers?

            To be clear, I'd be happy with either deGrom or Noah any day. I've defended them enough times here I ought to seek PR fees, lol.

            But just because 2016 deGrom wasn't as good as 2014-5 deGrom 1. Didn't mean deGrom had "regressed" and 2. Didn't make Noah the better OVERALL choice.

            Same with Noah.

            It's also worth noting that Noah's 2016--the same age deGrom was in 2014. This rocky start notwithstanding, overall, he's still in line with deGrom 2014 form...he still has the next few years to get to deGrom 2018 form, if he can, or whatever Noah Age 26-30 form looks like.
            Use whoever you like, but when someone reaches a certain level and they dont hit that level..........they have regressed.

            That doesnt mean they suck, and their regression can still be better than anyone else's best effort. It also doesnt mean that they can no longer progress. I would love to see Noah progress into the monster pitcher I thought he was going to be. We shall see.

            BTW - Joe Dimaggio's best wasnt 1941 despite the most overrated feat in baseball history.

            You totally are missing the point -- Noah's best year was 2016. I think that is a no brainer. Ok now its 3 years later and we are still waiting for him to be a dominant pitcher on a consistent basis. He hasnt been in 3 years now. So what do you call it? What excuses do you want to make?

            You keep tossing other names out there. Dimaggio. Pedro, deGrom, Atilla the Hun, I am impressed you didnt mention Matt Harvey in the post........I am talking about Noah and Noah alone. Noah was the Mets best pitcher in 2016 - hence getting the ball against the Giants in the playoff game. Since then he has taken steps backwards (is that better than regression)?

            This doesnt mean he cant find it, and it doesnt mean he sucks. It means he hasnt been what he was in 2016 since then. Its not the end of the world...........nobody has died because of it.

            I will put this another way so you can your PR hat away............... If Noah never threw another pitch in the major leagues, and you opened Baseball Reference.......his best year was..........?????


            You as many fans have - have fallen hook line and sinker for the great Met pitching and anything that dents that shield really gets you out of sorts. I have very bad news for you -- The Met rich pitching history is a myth - it never happened. The Mets dont have dominant starting pitching currently. They have a great ace, a good 2, an eh at best 3, a bad 4, and a dreadful 5.

            When I hear from these baseball experts about the Met Pitching -- I find it ridiculous that these guys have jobs doing what they do.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by redban View Post
              DeGrom's start tomorrow is getting pushed to Saturday because he has illness.

              Jason Vargas vs. Adam Wainwright

              https://www.mlb.com/mets/roster/probable-pitchers
              Great! That means tomorrow's game will look more like a football score.

              Comment


              • Mets ARE snakebit. deGrom to NY for MRI on elbow. Per WFAN

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                • A really smart guy said that the most they should offer deGrom is 3 years because of his age and there is a clock on TJS. Nope they go all in AGAIN in the wrong F'n place. No Harper, No Machado...spend money on a 31 year pitcher that has had TJS 10 years ago.

                  this was going to bite them in ass without a doubt.

                  I wonder how the screaming fan base will feel if he a damaged elbow about this potential disaster. They will cry about bad luck of course...typical Met fan reaction.

                  I don't want to hear $ hit about Baseball Gods or snake bitten...….its all bull $hit. deGrom for 5 years was just plain ole stupid and so is the Met organization.

                  Comment


                  • Awful decision to challenge. Even if the call is overturned, you have a slow runner at 1st with 1 out against slumping Cano. In first inning.

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                    • Mets survive to win 5-4 tonight. Happy Passover to those who celebrate.
                      The Mets have the best, smartest fans in baseball.

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                      • Anytime they win a Vargas start it should count as two wins. Unfortunately the bullpen was forced to get 15 outs

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                        • Originally posted by Paulypal View Post
                          A really smart guy said that the most they should offer deGrom is 3 years because of his age and there is a clock on TJS. Nope they go all in AGAIN in the wrong F'n place. No Harper, No Machado...spend money on a 31 year pitcher that has had TJS 10 years ago.

                          this was going to bite them in ass without a doubt.

                          I wonder how the screaming fan base will feel if he a damaged elbow about this potential disaster. They will cry about bad luck of course...typical Met fan reaction.

                          I don't want to hear $ hit about Baseball Gods or snake bitten...….its all bull $hit. deGrom for 5 years was just plain ole stupid and so is the Met organization.
                          Signing him to a extension of any kind this year was stupid. There was no way he was going to equal last season. They should have waited until the off season as I said all along. Hopefully he is alright, but I suspect this is David Wright/Yoenis Cespedes/Jason Bay all over again.

                          Comment


                          • Met fans overreact. That’s what we do. Some blame luck, some blame ownership for spending money. Some blame ownership for not spending money.
                            But we all want the best outcome for deGrom and Cespedes. That’s for sure.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post

                              Signing him to a extension of any kind this year was stupid. There was no way he was going to equal last season. They should have waited until the off season as I said all along. Hopefully he is alright, but I suspect this is David Wright/Yoenis Cespedes/Jason Bay all over again.
                              I was ok with AN extension...….not the one he got.

                              We differ on extending players, but that's ok.

                              I don't like 31 year old pitchers being extended for 5 years when they have a TJS in their history. There is an expiration date on the surgery. Different for everyone but there is an expiration date.

                              Comment


                              • I just read deGrom was playing catch this morning:

                                Jacob deGrom (elbow) was seen playing catch on the field Saturday morning in St. Louis as he waits for his MRI appointment on Monday.

                                This would seem to be a good sign. If the Mets feared the worst they surely wouldn't allow their ace to risk aggravating his elbow ailment. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner felt some pain in his throwing elbow on Thursday and was placed on the 10-day injured list on Friday. He is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Monday when the team gets back to New York.

                                So he is on the IL for 10 days and throwing before his MRI. I honestly think I live in an alternate universe when it comes to the Mets.


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