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Biggest Concern After 12 Games

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  • Biggest Concern After 12 Games

    David Wright. It is still early in the season, but my concern about Wright is based on more than his performance this season. He is striking about way too much. More importantly, he does not seem to be the hitter that he was in his first two years with the Mets. He used to be a great two-strick hitter. Not any more. He now has that uppercut swing and doesn't seem to look to hit the other way as often as he did when he first came up. He is one of the team's core players, and I fear that he is regressing. I know he had great numbers last year, but numbers don't always tell the full story.

  • #2
    I wouldn't say that. Historically, Wright has been a very slow starter. Here are his career stat lines by month...

    March and April: .283/.398/.480
    May: .301/.373/.534
    June: .305/.380/.533
    July: .303/.581/.507
    August: .324/.403/.560
    September and October: .327/.395/.554

    Currently, he's at .289/.418/.400, with only his slugging percentage being outside his career norm for April.

    As for striking out too much, he's K'ed 15 times in 12 games. Here are his other Games to Strikeouts ratios...

    2005: 160 Games, 113 K's (17 K's in the month of April)
    2006: 154 Games, 113 K's (13 K's in April)
    2007: 160 Games, 115 K's (23 K's in April)
    2008: 160 Games, 118 K's (16 K's in April)

    It looks like he's starting off the season similarly to 2007. Thing is, he ultimately turned himself around and had a season there where he batted .325/.416/.546. Also, if you'll remember, he had the exact same problems: huge uppercut, really pull-happy. If Howard Johnson worked him out of it then, who's to say he can't work him out of it now?

    Also, as for David being a good two-strike hitter...well, actually, he's historically been a terrible two-strike hitter: .239/.331/.418 over his career.
    "They put me in the Hall of Fame? They must really be scraping the bottom of the barrel!"
    -Eppa Rixey, upon learning of his induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame.

    Motafy (MO-ta-fy) vt. -fied, -fying 1. For a pitcher to melt down in a big game situation; to become like Guillermo Mota. 2. The transformation of a good pitcher into one of Guillermo Mota's caliber.

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    • #3
      What site gives you those stats?

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      • #4
        www.baseball-reference.com

        Look under "splits" for certain situational stats.
        "They put me in the Hall of Fame? They must really be scraping the bottom of the barrel!"
        -Eppa Rixey, upon learning of his induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame.

        Motafy (MO-ta-fy) vt. -fied, -fying 1. For a pitcher to melt down in a big game situation; to become like Guillermo Mota. 2. The transformation of a good pitcher into one of Guillermo Mota's caliber.

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        • #5
          Will do. Thanks.

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          • #6
            No problem! Note that you can look up any professional baseball player on baseball-reference.com...it's kind of a computerized version of the Baseball Encyclopedia combined with the yearly baseball guides that give situational stats combined with SABR's Minor League encyclopedia (note that while you'll find every Minor League player, data on the Minor Leagues before about 1980 is somewhat incomplete).
            "They put me in the Hall of Fame? They must really be scraping the bottom of the barrel!"
            -Eppa Rixey, upon learning of his induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame.

            Motafy (MO-ta-fy) vt. -fied, -fying 1. For a pitcher to melt down in a big game situation; to become like Guillermo Mota. 2. The transformation of a good pitcher into one of Guillermo Mota's caliber.

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            • #7
              The number of men LOB is annoying but that will correct itself by more guys getting on base.

              It's hard to say it's the starting pitching to be honest. Perez is what he is. You'll get a good game, an ok game, and then a bad game out of him. Just have to win those ok games more often. Maine had one excellent start and then one bad one; it happens. Livan is a 5th starter and he didn't pitch terribly against the Brewers, just made that mistake to Braun. Pelfrey hasn't been good but the rest should do him well.
              "I'm happy for [Edwin Encarnacion] because this guy bleeds internally, big-time" -Dusty Baker

              "If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it on the scoreboard?" -Jeff Francoeur

              "At the end of the day, the sun comes up and I still have a job" -Joba Chamberlain

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              • #8
                i too am concerned about the David Wright situation. He is my favorite Met, but I am starting to get very concerned. My concern isn't his overall numbers, it's the hitting in big spots that scares me. A-Rod puts the biggest numbers up in the game, but he doesn't deliver in the clutch and i think the more it becomes an issue, the more it gets in their head. I hope that it's not in his head and i hope that he steps up this year and gets some huge two out hits in critical game situations. I think that's the concern about Wright more than anyone else in that lineup.
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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Dalkowski110 View Post

                  Also, as for David being a good two-strike hitter...well, actually, he's historically been a terrible two-strike hitter: .239/.331/.418 over his career.

                  Is that actually bad? You would think one would be worse with two strikes then without two strikes.

                  David is .309 / .389 / .531 for his career. So his drop with two-strikes is 23% / 15% / 22%

                  I just looked up Pujols, just to give me a barometer. He goes from .334 / .425 / .624 to .271 / .337 / .485, or a 19% / 21% / 22% drop. Very similar to Wright.

                  I also looked up Manny, a notrious "RBI Man" and he goes from .314 / .411 / .593 to .227 / .323 / .418 or a 28% / 22% / 30% drop. Much worse than Wright.

                  I thought a slap hitter might fair better, so I looked up Ichiro. he goes from .330/.376/.430 to .266/.297/.319 or drops of 20%/21%/26%. Again, marginally worse than Wright

                  Does anyone know the average drop-off with two strikes? Or anyone who really does well with two-strikes? I wouldn't call David terrible, from my very small sample he seems to be in line with what other players do.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by EasilyFound View Post
                    David Wright. It is still early in the season, but my concern about Wright is based on more than his performance this season. He is striking about way too much. More importantly, he does not seem to be the hitter that he was in his first two years with the Mets. He used to be a great two-strick hitter. Not any more. He now has that uppercut swing and doesn't seem to look to hit the other way as often as he did when he first came up. He is one of the team's core players, and I fear that he is regressing. I know he had great numbers last year, but numbers don't always tell the full story.
                    A long time ago there was someone who ran around yelling "the sky is falling". His name.....................was Chicken Little. The Mets are 6-6. They're not 4-8, not 2-10, nor are they 1-11. They are @ .500. There are more issues than just David Wright. They have a lack of consistent starting pitching. They have mediocre clutch hitting from everyone. They lack a solid righty hitter off the bench. They have age in areas that is concerning. Frankly the Mets have bigger fish to fry in other words. They have a major nemesis in front of them that is absolutely on fire in the Marlins, and their other main nemesis Philly is .5 games behind them. They have a fan base that is on the ledge about everything. And is complaining about their brand new stadium from the rotunda, to the color of the seats, from the obstructed views, and the tiles in the bathrooms. I am embarrased at times to be a Mets fan when I hear this stuff. Life is too short. I am a huge Mets fan, AND a huge David Wright fan. He is a very good player, he started off slow in the pressure spots. He will get better as the season wears on. The only negative I will say is that David should be hitting 5th, not 3rd. I'd place Beltran in the 3 hole. After 12 games am I very worried? No, because I am not a Chicken Little.
                    sigpic
                    LETS GO METS !!!

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Brooklyn View Post
                      Is that actually bad? You would think one would be worse with two strikes then without two strikes.

                      David is .309 / .389 / .531 for his career. So his drop with two-strikes is 23% / 15% / 22%

                      I just looked up Pujols, just to give me a barometer. He goes from .334 / .425 / .624 to .271 / .337 / .485, or a 19% / 21% / 22% drop. Very similar to Wright.

                      I also looked up Manny, a notrious "RBI Man" and he goes from .314 / .411 / .593 to .227 / .323 / .418 or a 28% / 22% / 30% drop. Much worse than Wright.

                      I thought a slap hitter might fair better, so I looked up Ichiro. he goes from .330/.376/.430 to .266/.297/.319 or drops of 20%/21%/26%. Again, marginally worse than Wright

                      Does anyone know the average drop-off with two strikes? Or anyone who really does well with two-strikes? I wouldn't call David terrible, from my very small sample he seems to be in line with what other players do.
                      You got me. I failed to look up the league average with two strikes, and Wright is indeed better vs. his peers in terms of a drop in the percentage of BA/OBP/SLG. With that said, I'm not knocking Wright (intentionally). In fact, we should lower our expectations on almost any player with two strikes.
                      "They put me in the Hall of Fame? They must really be scraping the bottom of the barrel!"
                      -Eppa Rixey, upon learning of his induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame.

                      Motafy (MO-ta-fy) vt. -fied, -fying 1. For a pitcher to melt down in a big game situation; to become like Guillermo Mota. 2. The transformation of a good pitcher into one of Guillermo Mota's caliber.

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                      • #12
                        I think its apparent right now the biggest concern is the hits with RISP. and Maine and Pelfrey.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Jbutta29 View Post
                          I think its apparent right now the biggest concern is the hits with RISP. and Maine and Pelfrey.
                          I agree with your first and third points, but I think Maine will be ok.

                          As far as Wright is concerned, as many have prevoiusly stated, and backed up with stats, he is a slow starter. No worries about him. Just look at other stars, Jimmy Rollins and David Ortiz both have not yet hit a HR and are batting less than their weight! Things will sort themselves out by July.
                          unknown brooklyn cabbie " how are the brooks doin"
                          unknown fan "good they got three men on base"
                          unknown brooklyn cabbie "which one?"

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Dalkowski110 View Post
                            You got me. I failed to look up the league average with two strikes, and Wright is indeed better vs. his peers in terms of a drop in the percentage of BA/OBP/SLG. With that said, I'm not knocking Wright (intentionally). In fact, we should lower our expectations on almost any player with two strikes.
                            Cuiriously, what is the league average, and where do you find that information?

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                            • #15
                              Well, I'm not really sure of the exact league average, but I checked fifty random players for last year via BB-Ref and crunched the numbers.
                              "They put me in the Hall of Fame? They must really be scraping the bottom of the barrel!"
                              -Eppa Rixey, upon learning of his induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame.

                              Motafy (MO-ta-fy) vt. -fied, -fying 1. For a pitcher to melt down in a big game situation; to become like Guillermo Mota. 2. The transformation of a good pitcher into one of Guillermo Mota's caliber.

                              Comment

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