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  • Well, I just started a 2013 ignore list. Wonder what stats will show up on my list? 2400 posts in 6 months on stats? Yikes.

    When Frank Robinson was let go in Washington, they told him "Frank you were a great player but you don't know computers". On baseball fever, some one who never played sports would tell us they knew more about baseball than Frank Robinson and would create some stats to prove it.

    There's a few people on this forum that really do need to go outside and play with the other kids !

    Comment


    • Originally posted by filihok View Post
      Hit f/x is basically what EF described.


      I also recently posted this, which is in a similar vein.
      I am quite familiar with hit and pitch F/X and the idea of perfromance vs. production. My point was, even LD performance (or in this case how many balls are hit hard) is subject to much noise in a single game.
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      • The endless search for "the" stat that will reveal the "best" players or the most "effective" pitchers is a fallacy. In professional sports, the goal of the game is to win. A true team player performs to achieve that goal. A pitcher is pitching to win the game not to out pitch the opposing pitcher. Sure, maybe it is fun or interesting to discuss whether the "losing" pitcher out pitched the "winning" pitcher, but in the end, it doesn't really matter. Why? Because that was not the pitcher's goal that day. The goal was to win. There is no stat that can 100% of the time accurately measure how well a pitcher contributed to that goal in a particular game. Having said that, I would not be surprised if some wiz kid developed a complicated formula to control for that factor, but I sure would be skeptical of it.

        Comment


        • The thing about advanced statistics is this: they're no better at predicting the future than the old stats were.

          A truth in baseball: past performance is no guarantee of future results. *All* stats measure the past. So just pick your poison.
          Cleon Jones catches a deep fly ball in F. Scott Fitzgerald's Valley of the Ashes, and a second-grader smiles in front of the black and white television.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by EasilyFound View Post
            The endless search for "the" stat that will reveal the "best" players or the most "effective" pitchers is a fallacy. In professional sports, the goal of the game is to win. A true team player performs to achieve that goal. A pitcher is pitching to win the game not to out pitch the opposing pitcher. Sure, maybe it is fun or interesting to discuss whether the "losing" pitcher out pitched the "winning" pitcher, but in the end, it doesn't really matter. Why? Because that was not the pitcher's goal that day. The goal was to win. There is no stat that can 100% of the time accurately measure how well a pitcher contributed to that goal in a particular game. Having said that, I would not be surprised if some wiz kid developed a complicated formula to control for that factor, but I sure would be skeptical of it.
            That being said it sure does suck to pitch 7 innings give up 1 run on six hits while walking 1 and striking out 7 and lose.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by EasilyFound View Post
              It doesn't really matter, does it? Whether Harvey out pitched Wainwright or the other way around. It just doesn't matter. Whether you measure MOEs or the BB Flip per 9 innings.

              Pfft.

              All that matters today is that the Mets lost, and the Cards won.

              Some much effort is put into finding a new-fangled stat to show who is the best and who is better than another or the best. Getting to the point where you guys are running out of acronyms for all of your different formulas. How long before someone finds a way to measure the percentage of line drives that were fractions of an inch from being a fly ball or a ground out or vice versa. I mean, you talk about walks and K's but other websites will show how many of the balls should have been strikes if the ump was calling by the correct strike zone and next thing you'll be telling me that if the ump had called the true strike zone then the pitcher would have had 1.2 more K's per 9 and .67 fewer walks per 9, which undoubtedly will prompt some quick-minded statistical major to develop the eBatted Ball FIP or the aBatted Ball FIP.

              Ever think maybe there is no "true" "estimated" or "adjusted" statistical measure of the game of baseball?

              Maybe?
              Agree 100%. I love the advanced stats, you cant put everything in a stats box.

              No offense to anyone (although it probably will) but:

              Most people that look at advance stats ONLY and go by them ONLY probably have no idea what end of a bat to hold, or which hand to put a glove on, because if you ever played anything at any level you would know that sometimes things are just not quantifiable. Advanced stats (although not the purpose) have become the way the non athlete can explain and gain some control over the athletic.

              Which is why I laugh at Brian Kenny arguing baseball with guys that played on the MLB Network.

              The advanced stats are great and we can tell much more about the players and the game than we ever could, but they cant tell you everything.

              I still look at pitchers wins as a viable stat, and winning is still better than losing even if you outpitched the other guy. Period.
              Last edited by Paulypal; 06-14-2013, 06:04 AM.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by EasilyFound View Post
                The endless search for "the" stat that will reveal the "best" players or the most "effective" pitchers is a fallacy. In professional sports, the goal of the game is to win. A true team player performs to achieve that goal. A pitcher is pitching to win the game not to out pitch the opposing pitcher. Sure, maybe it is fun or interesting to discuss whether the "losing" pitcher out pitched the "winning" pitcher, but in the end, it doesn't really matter. Why? Because that was not the pitcher's goal that day. The goal was to win. There is no stat that can 100% of the time accurately measure how well a pitcher contributed to that goal in a particular game. Having said that, I would not be surprised if some wiz kid developed a complicated formula to control for that factor, but I sure would be skeptical of it.
                Again...I agree 100%. Matt Harvey said after the game yesterday that he failed because his team lost. Now I understand that he is being a team player there, but the end goal is to win. 1-0 or 15-14.

                The true problem is, was and will be the Met offense, but the pitchers goal is still to win, not say "well my team lost, but man if you look at my sabremetics stats I was awesome".

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Paulypal View Post
                  Again...I agree 100%. Matt Harvey said after the game yesterday that he failed because his team lost. Now I understand that he is being a team player there, but the end goal is to win. 1-0 or 15-14.

                  The true problem is, was and will be the Met offense, but the pitchers goal is still to win, not say "well my team lost, but man if you look at my sabremetics stats I was awesome".
                  One day I saw an old clip of the Yankees. I think it was manager Joe McCarthy. It was a news reel where the manager said something like "You know why the Yanks always win, it because of guys like this" and he called over a couple of players and he asked them "hey, what's your batting average"...and a player said "I dunno skip" and he then asked the other something like "how many rbi's do you have" and the player had no idea. The manager said 'that's why we win, nobody on this team cares about their stats, only the team winning'.

                  People can use all the new stats or old stats they want.....nobody sitting at a computer can play like Frank Robinson, nor hit like Ted Williams, nor pitch like Warren Spahn.

                  They can pretend all they want, but I still have that image of Chris "Mad Dog" Russo unable to throw a pitch from the mound to home plate.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by mandrake View Post
                    One day I saw an old clip of the Yankees. I think it was manager Joe McCarthy. It was a news reel where the manager said something like "You know why the Yanks always win, it because of guys like this" and he called over a couple of players and he asked them "hey, what's your batting average"...and a player said "I dunno skip" and he then asked the other something like "how many rbi's do you have" and the player had no idea. The manager said 'that's why we win, nobody on this team cares about their stats, only the team winning'.

                    People can use all the new stats or old stats they want.....nobody sitting at a computer can play like Frank Robinson, nor hit like Ted Williams, nor pitch like Warren Spahn.

                    They can pretend all they want, but I still have that image of Chris "Mad Dog" Russo unable to throw a pitch from the mound to home plate.

                    Thats why I have always felt playing the game on some level always gives you a better perspective on the game.

                    For instance:

                    In 2006 Beltran was destroyed on this board for taking that curve ball from Wainwright. DESTROYED. I didnt start posting until much later but he was still getting destroyed. Being that we are on the subject I can tell how little I think of the fans that destroyed him.......they are complete and utter morons......morons that are so clueless about the game they should either watch and learn or shut up until they do.

                    Until you have a bat in your hand and see a ball break that much and get a hit.......please shut up. Beltran didnt suck, he didnt choke, or anything you want to say. He was buckled by the best curve in baseball. It happens.

                    I understand that K affected his OPS, WAR. WOBA, and everything else, but the fact remains humans play the game, and in MLB its the highest level with the best players. Sometimes you tip your cap to other guy for besting you that day.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Strawman View Post
                      The thing about advanced statistics is this: they're no better at predicting the future than the old stats were.
                      This is, verifiably, false
                      http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/are-p...ra-estimators/

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Paulypal View Post
                        Agree 100%. I love the advanced stats, you cant put everything in a stats box.

                        The advanced stats are great and we can tell much more about the players and the game than we ever could, but they cant tell you everything
                        Who has made this claim?

                        Most people that look at advance stats ONLY and go by them ONLY probably have no idea what end of a bat to hold, or which hand to put a glove on,
                        I can assure you that I know how to wear a glove and hold a bat.
                        Last edited by filihok; 06-14-2013, 12:23 PM.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by EasilyFound View Post
                          The endless search for "the" stat that will reveal the "best" players or the most "effective" pitchers is a fallacy.
                          You mean a stat like win-loss record?
                          Win-loss records don't show you who pitched better.

                          Which was the point that I was making.

                          I don't know why this is such a controversial thing to say.

                          So-and-so hitter might go 0-4 in a win while Joe Blow hitter might have hit 3 home runs in a loss. It wouldn't be controversial to say that Joe Blow had a better game than So-and-so. However it is somehow controversial to say that a pitcher for a losing team had a better game than a pitcher for a winning team.

                          I don't get it.
                          Last edited by filihok; 06-14-2013, 12:24 PM.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Paulypal View Post
                            Thats why I have always felt playing the game on some level always gives you a better perspective on the game.

                            For instance:

                            In 2006 Beltran was destroyed on this board for taking that curve ball from Wainwright. DESTROYED. I didnt start posting until much later but he was still getting destroyed. Being that we are on the subject I can tell how little I think of the fans that destroyed him.......they are complete and utter morons......morons that are so clueless about the game they should either watch and learn or shut up until they do.

                            Until you have a bat in your hand and see a ball break that much and get a hit.......please shut up. Beltran didnt suck, he didnt choke, or anything you want to say. He was buckled by the best curve in baseball. It happens.

                            I understand that K affected his OPS, WAR. WOBA, and everything else, but the fact remains humans play the game, and in MLB its the highest level with the best players. Sometimes you tip your cap to other guy for besting you that day.
                            It's been a while, but I think the very first pitch in that at bat was a meatball right down the middle......but that last pitch was NASTY. And this is from someone who admits that I could not even make contact against a girl in fast pitch.....she blew at least a dozen right past me. The best I managed was fouling a few off the handle. LOL.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Paulypal View Post
                              Again...I agree 100%. Matt Harvey said after the game yesterday that he failed because his team lost. Now I understand that he is being a team player there, but the end goal is to win. 1-0 or 15-14.

                              The true problem is, was and will be the Met offense, but the pitchers goal is still to win, not say "well my team lost, but man if you look at my sabremetics stats I was awesome".
                              Maybe, but they will probably complain about lack of run support.
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                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by mandrake View Post
                                It's been a while, but I think the very first pitch in that at bat was a meatball right down the middle......but that last pitch was NASTY. And this is from someone who admits that I could not even make contact against a girl in fast pitch.....she blew at least a dozen right past me. The best I managed was fouling a few off the handle. LOL.
                                That first pitch was an 83 mph cookie. I remember it well. In fact I said at the time that was the best pitch he was going to see.

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