Poll 52 percent feel Mets willl win first world series since 1986 in next 20 years

[WEB]

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Actual NY1 Marist Poll done August 8th-15th 2012 with demographics.

Budd Mishkin is a huge Msg homer who wrote the article.
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52 percent think the Mets will win their first World Series since 1986.

[Blue387]

Dickey, Harvey, Niese, Gee and Wheeler.

[theAmazingMet]

20 years is a big window. Of course its been 26 and counting since the last one...

[mandrake]

Dickey, Harvey, Niese, Gee and Wheeler.

Seaver/Koosman/Gentry/Ryan/Matlack/Lolich/Swann etc won exactly once 1969-1977

Gooden/Darling/Sid/Ojeda/Cone/Viola etc won exactly once 1984-1992

Niese and Gee ? That's your rotation leading you to the WS? Dickey had a great year, but is he the ace to build a team around? And Harvey and Wheeler won how many titles in Buffalo and Binghamton surrounded by a crappy lineup?

[Paulypal]

Dickey, Harvey, Niese, Gee and Wheeler.

Isringhausen, Pulshipher, Wilson................oh wait..scratch that.

[Strawman]

Seaver/Koosman/Gentry/Ryan/Matlack/Lolich/Swann etc won exactly once 1969-1977

Gooden/Darling/Sid/Ojeda/Cone/Viola etc won exactly once 1984-1992

Niese and Gee ? That's your rotation leading you to the WS? Dickey had a great year, but is he the ace to build a team around? And Harvey and Wheeler won how many titles in Buffalo and Binghamton surrounded by a crappy lineup?

In fairness to those those other pitching staffs, they did win another division title each and one went to Game 7 of the WS - and they contended. This pitching staff is the clear strength of the Mets - and can't hold a candle to either of those staffs...

[Brooklyn]

20 years? That is quite a window. No one on today's team will be on the Mets in 20 years, and likely not even in 10 years. Hopefully they'll have different management in 20 years. There are kids in diapers today that will be on the Mets in 20 years. that is just a crazy amount of time.

Assuming all teams are equal (which we know they aren't), teams have a 1/30 chance of winning the world series in any given year, or a 29/30 chance of not winning it. Purely mathematically, (29/30)^20 is about 50.8%, so they have a 50.8% chance of not winning it in the next 20 years, and a 49.2% chance of winning it. So assuming all teams and seasons are equal, no explansion, etc, a team has a bout a 50/50 chance of winning at least one world series in a 20 year period.

If we can agree that they have less of a chance (at least in the short term) then the average team, then their chances are even less. So I would say it is unlikely. Which is a pretty depressing thought.

[Bothrops Atrox]

I'd put every big market team's chances of winning a title in the next 20 years a little over 50%. Well, except for the Cubs, maybe.

[Brooklyn]

I'd put every big market team's chances of winning a title in the next 20 years a little over 50%. Well, except for the Cubs, maybe.

Are you considering the Mets a big market team? Their salary is right in the middle of the pack right now, I'm not optomistic they will start spending again

[Paulypal]

Maybe we can knock this down to 15 years if we just poll -- black people from Staten Island that make less than $50,000 a year with no kids in the household that answer polling questions on their cell phone.

[Blue387]

Niese and Gee ? That's your rotation leading you to the WS? Dickey had a great year, but is he the ace to build a team around? And Harvey and Wheeler won how many titles in Buffalo and Binghamton surrounded by a crappy lineup?

Well, there's also this Santana fellow we apparently have. There might be some others to contribute to a good rotation that we don't know.

Baltimore is getting by this year with their rotation and their lineup. They've hit for power and their pitching staff has done well, assembled from nobodies like Chen, Saunders and bullpen arms like Darren O'Day. No one expected the Orioles to have a winning season, much less in the playoffs. Did anyone expect someone like Lew Ford to be playing in the playoffs?

Why can't I have some damn optimism about this team's future?

[Blue387]

Isringhausen, Pulshipher, Wilson................oh wait..scratch that.

Harvey throws hard with breaking stuff and misses bats. He strikes out over ten per nine innings. He does have a walk issue but I hope it can be corrected. If you manage his usage, he can be around longer than Generation K. And Harvey has even impressed Keith Law and if you can impress Law, you're pretty good.

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I'm not naive; this could go south. But prove me this is not a bad thing. How can you not be optimistic about this?

What is the flaw in my thinking and what are your better options, sir?

[Bothrops Atrox]

Are you considering the Mets a big market team? Their salary is right in the middle of the pack right now, I'm not optomistic they will start spending again

I said big market, not big spending. Big market tams will join the spending trend when pressure to win gets crazy. the Mets will spend money.

[CokeMachineGlow]

Isringhausen, Pulshipher, Wilson................oh wait..scratch that.

Pitching related injuries ended Generation K, not poor showing and talent.

[Paulypal]

Pitching related injuries ended Generation K, not poor showing and talent.

They werent over-rated at all. They were every bit as good as advertised. Injuries or not they werent that good. It was front office propaganda to keep the fans thinking the team was turning a corner.