Travis d'Arnaud

[Strawman]

We're getting damaged goods as the corner stone of this deal for a Cy Young Award winner.

The kid is a good hitter, no one disputes that. He's on all the prospect lists, which as well a know, are pretty much guessing game crapshoots and not a future All Star guarantee. Downsides away from all the cheering - and the sickening attacks on Dickey's character by the Mets and their pom-pom media squad - are pretty much these:

- Never played an inning of ML ball, probably won't do much in 2013. Nonetheless, will be 24 on Opening Day, not a super young kid.

- Two of the last three years were cut short by quite serious injuries. In 2010, two bulging disks in the back - ominous long-term for a catcher. In 2012, a blown-out knee in June - also, ominous long-term for a catcher. Yeah he's young and coming back from the injury, but those are major red flags.

- Also, defense is a work in progress. Can anyone say, Josh Thole II? "D’Arnaud ... is still considered a work in progress on defense, but many scouts say they think he is athletic enough to become above average as a catcher, a thin position in the Mets’ development chain." So if he works hard, he may become above average. Woo.

- Then there's this buried in all the rah-rah list-based reporting, from today's NYT: he may be more of a 1B-C prospect. Do we need that. He started taking groundballs at 1B last year for the Jays.

Sounds like he might be a biggish bat starting in 2014 or beyond, but there are enough danger signals here to suggest this isn't the grand slam it's being portrayed as.

[CokeMachineGlow]

We're getting damaged goods as the corner stone of this deal for a Cy Young Award winner.

We're getting the consensus best catching, and top twenty, prospect in baseball

Never played an inning of ML ball, probably won't do much in 2013. Nonetheless, will be 24 on Opening Day, not a super young kid.

Okay? So? What's your point here? That there is no guarantee he amounts to anything?


Two of the last three years were cut short by quite serious injuries. In 2010, two bulging disks in the back - ominous long-term for a catcher. In 2012, a blown-out knee in June - also, ominous long-term for a catcher. Yeah he's young and coming back from the injury, but those are major red flags.

None of the injury reports suggest that he'll be seriously impaired by those injuries in the future.

Also, defense is a work in progress. Can anyone say, Josh Thole II? "D’Arnaud ... is still considered a work in progress on defense, but many scouts say they think he is athletic enough to become above average as a catcher, a thin position in the Mets’ development chain." So if he works hard, he may become above average. Woo.

An above-average catcher with elite hitting tools? Man, why would we want that? And Josh Thole 2.0? Seriously? D'Arnaud has mashed the ball in the minors, and has played better defense, than Thole ever did.

Then there's this buried in all the rah-rah list-based reporting, from today's NYT: he may be more of a 1B-C prospect. Do we need that. He started taking groundballs at 1B last year for the Jays.

Uh, he's a catcher. What are you rambling about now?

Sounds like he might be a biggish bat starting in 2014 or beyond, but there are enough danger signals here to suggest this isn't the grand slam it's being portrayed as.

Right. You're telling me that trading away a 38 year-old pitcher for a potential franchise catcher and another potential upper-echelon pitcher (in Syndergaard) is terrible.

[Strawman]

D’Arnaud, whose brother Chase is an infielder for the Pittsburgh Pirates, is still considered a work in progress on defense, but many scouts say they think he is athletic enough to become above average as a catcher, a thin position in the Mets’ development chain. At the very least, d’Arnaud has the ability to stick at catcher in the majors.

Despite d’Arnaud’s offensive numbers in the minors, it is not certain that he could immediately step into the Mets’ lineup, primarily because his knee injury, a torn posterior cruciate ligament he sustained while trying to break up a double play, delayed his development. He also missed half of the 2010 season with two bulging disks in his back.

Again, not saying he will be a bust - the guy can hit - just that he's far, far from a sure thing and the Mets just punted the 2013-14 seasons, at minimum.

And it's entirely possible this front office just got fleeced by the Blue Jays.

[CokeMachineGlow]

Again, not saying he will be a bust - the guy can hit - just that he's far, far from a sure thing

Usually the label "sure thing" is given to those in the top-3, so yeah, I guess he isn't a "sure thing."

And it's entirely possible this front office just got fleeced by the Blue Jays.

And it's entirely possible the Mets fleeced the Blue Jays.

Mets just punted the 2013-14 seasons, at minimum.

Haha.

Did you really think we even had a chance with or without Dickey?

[filihok]

Can anyone say, Josh Thole II? "

LOL wut?

Josh Thole .756 minor league OPS, .772 in AAA
Travis D'Arnaud .816 minor league OPS, .975 in AAA

It's no comparison

[Strawman]

LOL wut?

Josh Thole .756 minor league OPS, .772 in AAA
Travis D'Arnaud .816 minor league OPS, .975 in AAA

It's no comparison

Defensively. Also, I wouldn't bandy about D'Arnaud's AAA numbers - he played 1/3 season before knee took him out for year.

[filihok]

Defensively. Also, I wouldn't bandy about D'Arnaud's AAA numbers - he played 1/3 season before knee took him out for year.

Thole 1600 minor league PA's 13% above league average
d'Arnaud 2000 minor league PA's 25% above league average (including 50% above league average at AA and AAA)

[Cowtipper]

I tend to look with a leery eye at top prospect catchers. They seem to go bust at a greater clip than most other positions. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jeff Clement and JP Arencibia are some examples that quickly spring to mind.

[Shea Knight]

I've already said it, I'll say it again--

Unless this kid turns out to be Bryce Harper's clone or Mike Piazza 2.0, this was a stupid deal.
Stupid.
EVEN if you want to argue the Mets had to trade dickey (and I deny that) they could have and should have gotten FAR more...

They get no one of great value PROVEN in this deal.
NO ONE.
This could all be for magic beans.

[CokeMachineGlow]

I've already said it, I'll say it again--

Unless this kid turns out to be Bryce Harper's clone or Mike Piazza 2.0, this was a stupid deal.
Stupid.
EVEN if you want to argue the Mets had to trade dickey (and I deny that) they could have and should have gotten FAR more...

They get no one of great value PROVEN in this deal.
NO ONE.
This could all be for magic beans.

I apologize if I'm violating BF's rules, but you're a fool.

You're blinded by your love for Dickey (believe me, I really loved him too), but this was the right move. We weren't getting anywhere with Dickey, and his value was at it's highest. I wish we didn't have to trade him, but if we want to grow as a team become contenders it was a necessary evil.

[filihok]

I've already said it, I'll say it again--

Unless this kid turns out to be Bryce Harper's clone or Mike Piazza 2.0, this was a stupid deal.
Stupid.

Dickey has been worth 4.6, 3.7 and 6.5 WAR (FanGraphs' RA-9) over the last 3 seasons in 91 starts and 617 innings.

That's 5.3 WAR per 33 starts and 220 innings.

The market value of 1 WAR is between $5 and $6 million.

If Dickey makes 33 starts with 220 innings and produces 5.3 WAR next season his total value will be $29 million. He's being paid $5 million.

He's producing $24 million in excess of his cost.

For d'Arnaud to produce $24 million in value he'd need to be produce just over 4 WAR ($24/$5.5 = 4.3 WAR). During his first 3 seasons he'll likely make the minor league minimum (or very near to it). To produce 4.3 WAR in 3 seasons he'd need to average less than 1.5 WAR per season.

d'Arnaud only needs to be about as good as: Michael McKenry, Martin Maldanado, David Ross, Eric Kratz, Kelly Shoppach, JP Arencibia, Chris Ianetta, John Buck and Tyler Flowers for the Mets to come out even on this deal

[Shea Knight]

I apologize if I'm violating BF's rules, but you're a fool.

You're blinded by your love for Dickey (believe me, I really loved him too), but this was the right move. We weren't getting anywhere with Dickey, and his value was at it's highest. I wish we didn't have to trade him, but if we want to grow as a team become contenders it was a necessary evil.

Let me be clear--

While I think the Mets should have worked out an extension with Dickey...

I AM NOT saying it was foolish to trade him. I'm not.

I AM saying it's foolish to trade a CY YOUNG WINNER for MAGIC BEANS.

Neither you nor I know if D'Arnaud or these other prospects are worth spit at the MLB-level.

Ryan Leaf was once a "highly touted prospect" too, you know.

FAR TOO LITTLE PROVEN NET in this deal for the Mets.

If they were going to trade Dickey, a PROVEN pitcher or hitter should have been part of the swap.

[CokeMachineGlow]

Let me be clear--

While I think the Mets should have worked out an extension with Dickey...

I AM NOT saying it was foolish to trade him. I'm not.

I AM saying it's foolish to trade a CY YOUNG WINNER for MAGIC BEANS.

Neither you nor I know if D'Arnaud or these other prospects are worth spit at the MLB-level.

Ryan Leaf was once a "highly touted prospect" too, you know.

FAR TOO LITTLE PROVEN NET in this deal for the Mets.

If they were going to trade Dickey, a PROVEN pitcher or hitter should have been part of the swap.

So...your logic is that we shouldn't trade for prospects because they're too risky? It's flawed logic, but okay.

[filihok]

Let me be clear--

While I think the Mets should have worked out an extension with Dickey...

I AM NOT saying it was foolish to trade him. I'm not.

I AM saying it's foolish to trade a CY YOUNG WINNER for MAGIC BEANS.

Neither you nor I know if D'Arnaud or these other prospects are worth spit at the MLB-level.

Ryan Leaf was once a "highly touted prospect" too, you know.

FAR TOO LITTLE PROVEN NET in this deal for the Mets.

If they were going to trade Dickey, a PROVEN pitcher or hitter should have been part of the swap.

I don't know what Dickey's production will be next year? Do you?

Or is he also, to some degree, magic beans?

[Shea Knight]

So...your logic is that we shouldn't trade for prospects because they're too risky? It's flawed logic, but okay.

My logic is:

1. Again, unless D'Arnaud is a great (and I mean great, All-Star-worthy) catcher or Syndergaard is an All-Star, this was too little back for a reigning Cy Young champ when the crux of this argument on trading him now is that now is when his value is highest; if that's the case, unless we got gems back, we likely got the raw end of this deal.

2. In trading a reigning Cy Young champ, if I were to play Monday Morning GM right now...er, well, come Monday morning, I guess, I'd have liked AT LEAST ONE proven player in the deal ALONG with a prospect or two...obviously he wasn't going to the Dodgers, but I'll use them as an example here just because, seeing as many Dodger games as I do living here and listening to Vin Scully, after the Mets the Dodgers' roster is the one I know the best:

I'd have taken an Andre Ethier-type OF (ie, an 8/10 OF with a good arm, good average, and some power, something we NEED) and THEN one or two pitching prospects.

If you think Ethier is too high, then refer back to my "8/10 OF" argument--a PROVEN OF with an 8/10 score, as it were, to AT LEAST know you're getting something proven to already be good and working in return, and THEN a couple of prospects.

I know they got Buck back, but 1. That's not the OF, where our #1 priority in the field is right now, and 2. He's not at all an 8/10 player.

Something PROVEN...and if we WERE going to trade for prospects...

As far as my knowledge, when we traded Beltran for Wheeler and Harvey...they at least didn't have a prior injury, let alone TWO.

What's more, catchers wear out the fastest of any position player (well, maybe tied with SS, I suppose they wear out in different ways.)

This just is NOT the trade I would have made for Dickey, he was worth more, worth, again, AT LEAST A PROVEN PLAYER, that's what sticks in my craw the most.