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How many games will the Mets win in 2016?

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  • How many games will the Mets win in 2016?

    The roster is more or less set.

    I say 90-92. If I had to be nailed down I'd say 91.


    "The Fightin' Met With Two Heads" - Mike Tyson/Ray Knight!

  • #2
    Before I saw your post I was going to say 90-92. I am actually confident about this team this year. Especially if ...

    --Walker does about 75% of what Murphy did last year. Herrera is a viable backup.

    --We get a full year out of Conforto.

    --Wheeler performs well when he comes back.

    --Matz performs well. It just seems that people assume he'll do well, but we have yet to see a full year of him. I think he's a wild card.

    --Cespedes does 75% of what he did last year.

    --We can get about 100 games out of d'Arnaud and Wright.

    --Tejada and Flores continue to improve. Tejada, who I still think should be gotten rid of, was a surprise offensively. I'd like to see what Flores can do in his second full year. Remember, that kid was a top prospect once. His OPS+ has gone from 54 to 90 to 95. If he can get that to even 100-105 this year, we'll be in good shape.

    --Granderson continues to perform. I was truly surprised at how well he did last year. With the Mets pitching, he doesn't even need to do that well this year, but he still needs to put together a good season.

    --Obligatory comment about Plawecki, because he was a first round pick and so I want to see him succeed. I don't know if the Mets need him to, however. I wonder what their plans are for him.

    --the bullpen holds up. This is the Mets' weakest spot, I think -- though I seem to feel that way every year. I'm not sure Gilmartin can repeat and closers are capricious ... Familia could have a stellar campaign in 2016, or he could implode. Addison Reed was very good last year, but had only been decent in years before that. Goeddel and Edgin ... who knows. A big year from Edgin could help add a win or two to their tally.

    The great thing about this team is that just about everywhere -- offense and pitching -- they have cogs that can fill in if the main pieces fail. Walker gets hurt? There's Herrera, Tejada, Flores. Something goes wrong in the outfield? Lagares will pull a Danny Heep and probably fill in well enough until the main guy gets better. A starter goes down? The "forgotten" top prospect Rafael Montero is still young enough to give the Mets many good years. Logan Verrett, never a top prospect though a third round draft pick many moons ago, might be this generation's Pat Mahomes.

    This team has a perfect blend of veterans and young guys.

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    • #3
      95 wins, again in the worst division in baseball.

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      • #4
        I'd also say about 90 wins for them this year. They are not built to be a 100 win team, but with this pitching, they will be in contention in late September and hopefully poised to make another run.

        Out of Flores, Tejada, Duda, Walker and de Aza, one or more of them will not be with the team after the trade deadline. This might also be the year Harvey gets dealt. That will depend on his overall attitude and his productivity in relation to the rest of the SPs and the perception at the time as to whether or not he is needed to make a run.

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        • #5
          I think it will be a high number depending on spring training injuries. Assume this thread will still be open closer to opening day.

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          • #6
            85 wins and in a dog fight for the division with the Nats. The Marlins will not be far behind as I think they are going to surprise some people this year.

            I would pick them for 95 easy with a few upticks but:

            I am not sold on this team offensively or defensively at all.
            David Wright has one foot on a banana peel.
            Duda is still in the middle of the lineup - he needs to play better
            I am afraid they are going to stunt Conforto's growth by not playing him against most lefties and going with Lagares in CF and Cespedes in left.
            Their bullpen to get to Familia is suspect
            Familia is due to regress
            As a whole I am expecting some regression by the pitching staff as they threw more innings than ever and had less off season to recover.

            With all that said they have a better team by far going into 2016 than they did in 2015. So I am more optimistic although my 85 win guess is slightly on the pessimistic side.

            If things break right for them by getting improvement from some key players, and stay healthy I can see them running it up to 95 wins.
            Last edited by Paulypal; 07-10-2016, 05:51 PM.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by LI METS FAN View Post
              I think it will be a high number depending on spring training injuries. Assume this thread will still be open closer to opening day.
              Why wouldn't it be open? Things can change for good or bad.

              Last year's team was slightly better than a .500 team to start the season. Due to injuries they decided to bring up talent slated to be buried until 2016 and made a mid-season impact acquisition for the first time since Piazza.

              There was depth in the Minors. This season not so much.

              We'll see what happens. I think a better bullpen would have increased my projection by maybe 6 games. I'd still be surprised if they weren't near 90 wins. Since the Wild Card is less likely than the Division Title this will probably shape up to be the first old style 2 team pennant race since maybe 1985.

              Less teams in the postseason made the season much more compelling.


              "The Fightin' Met With Two Heads" - Mike Tyson/Ray Knight!

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Mongoose View Post
                Why wouldn't it be open? Things can change for good or bad.

                Last year's team was slightly better than a .500 team to start the season.
                Last year was a big roller coaster. They had the 11 game winning streak at the beginning of the season, then fell flat and at one point even slipped under .500. Then the pitching carried the team on its back. Then the trades happened and d'Arnaud got healthy and the team went on a tear in which at different points, Granderson, Duda, Murphy and Cespedes got really hot.

                It's hard to predict what a team will or will not do. Injuries happen, players get hot at different times, pitching falls flat. This year, at least for the first time in about 12 years, there's a team taking the field that is exciting to watch and is expected to do well. I'll take it and can't wait for opening day.

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                • #9
                  My first instinct was 88, then I thought 91, then I thought you know the offense is still a bit of an "if..." proposition and thought 85. Is 85-91 too big a range for a guessing game?

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
                    Last year was a big roller coaster. They had the 11 game winning streak at the beginning of the season, then fell flat and at one point even slipped under .500. Then the pitching carried the team on its back. Then the trades happened and d'Arnaud got healthy and the team went on a tear in which at different points, Granderson, Duda, Murphy and Cespedes got really hot.

                    It's hard to predict what a team will or will not do. Injuries happen, players get hot at different times, pitching falls flat. This year, at least for the first time in about 12 years, there's a team taking the field that is exciting to watch and is expected to do well. I'll take it and can't wait for opening day.
                    I think the pitching is exciting, and the team is expected to do well because of it....and only because of the pitching.

                    I am still concerned about the offense and defense in a big way. dArnaud, Cabrera, Walker, and Cespedes are up the middle - lets face it that is just not very good defense in the middle of the diamond by any stretch.

                    The offense is still hamstrung in my opinion. Without going into the details -- this offense is still less than. Of course things can change and maybe some guys break out or finally find it, but right now the offense is a big concern for me. If this team had the Pirate pitching staff would it still be an exciting team?

                    So what it comes down to is the pitching. Noah, Matz, deGrom, and Harvey are the players expected to carry this team.

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                    • #11
                      Too early to tell - and make a prediction.

                      I'd pull 93 games out, but I want to see the health of the squad and how everyone progresses in the spring. The opening roster is deeper, but like Pauly I do worry about regression on the pitching side. Then again, having so many arms kind of guards against that.
                      Cleon Jones catches a deep fly ball in F. Scott Fitzgerald's Valley of the Ashes, and a second-grader smiles in front of the black and white television.

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                      • #12
                        103 wins.

                        Put it in the books.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by LI METS FAN View Post
                          103 wins.

                          Put it in the books.
                          Why stop at 103?

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Paulypal View Post
                            Why stop at 103?
                            I thought 108 would be too much of a copycat of 86.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by LI METS FAN View Post
                              I thought 108 would be too much of a copycat of 86.
                              The team that showed up yesterday: 162 wins.

                              The team that shows up later today or next month? Maybe less.

                              It's a long season. That's what makes it interesting.


                              "The Fightin' Met With Two Heads" - Mike Tyson/Ray Knight!

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