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  • Mets 2017 rotation

    It looks like the Mets will have some tough decisions to make regarding the 2017 rotation, just as they did in 2016.

    They have the following pitchers available: Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zach Wheeler, Steven Matz, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Of course there are guys like Montero and Ynoa, but they are not viable options.

    They also have the following potentially available: Colon, Harvey.

    So, what does the 2017 rotation look like?

  • #2
    Originally posted by Cowtipper View Post
    It looks like the Mets will have some tough decisions to make regarding the 2017 rotation, just as they did in 2016.

    They have the following pitchers available: Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zach Wheeler, Steven Matz, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Of course there are guys like Montero and Ynoa, but they are not viable options.

    They also have the following potentially available: Colon, Harvey.

    So, what does the 2017 rotation look like?
    They will trade Zach Wheeler and at least 1 other pitcher for some more offense. Colon will be signed and used as a bullpen guy with the occasional spot start.

    Comment


    • #3
      Based on this season we may need to wait until spring training and see who is actually good to go.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by PVNICK View Post
        Based on this season we may need to wait until spring training and see who is actually good to go.
        Agreed. I am not sure how what kind of trade value any of these pitchers have anymore. Counting on guys like Matz and Harvey is a monster error right now. Add deGrom to that list to a lesser degree. Wheeler to me has no value - if someone wants him they are either insane or going to offer the minimum. The last time Wheeler pitched in a MLB game was September 25th 2014. Wheeler was last seen hunting for the Loch Ness Monster with Big Foot as his tour guide.


        This puts the Mets in a tough spot.

        Comment


        • #5
          The Mets still have a wealth of pitching (surprisingly) that they could shed their broken parts without much negative recourse. Getting rid of Harvey, Montero and perhaps Wheeler could probably net some names. Though honestly I'd like to give Wheeler a shot in 2017 and let him fail before we get rid of him. He might have a great return and I'd rather not have it be with some other team.

          Comment


          • #6
            This is likely what I'd do:

            Syndergaard
            deGrom
            Matz
            Wheeler
            Gsellman

            Lugo/Colon for long relief and inevitable insertion into rotation.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Paulypal View Post
              Agreed. I am not sure how what kind of trade value any of these pitchers have anymore. Counting on guys like Matz and Harvey is a monster error right now. Add deGrom to that list to a lesser degree. Wheeler to me has no value - if someone wants him they are either insane or going to offer the minimum. The last time Wheeler pitched in a MLB game was September 25th 2014. Wheeler was last seen hunting for the Loch Ness Monster with Big Foot as his tour guide.


              This puts the Mets in a tough spot.
              Not sure who'd be interested in trading for any of our broken pitchers. I wouldn't count on the health of Harvey, Wheeler or Matz (who's always injured). DeGrom's arm problems are often a prelude to Tommy John surgery. Syndergaard is undergoing surgery too. I'd expect none of them to recover on time, and not make any moves to trade anybody until all of the above prove they're healthy. I'd also re-sign Colon.

              Better too much than not enough.


              "The Fightin' Met With Two Heads" - Mike Tyson/Ray Knight!

              Comment


              • #8
                And now for the Devil's Advocate...or Dark Knight's, anyway.

                That said, it's a coin flip Harvey's returning. My best guess? He does come back, at which point it's 30/70 he plays through 2017 vs. satisfying Pauly's drive to trade him.

                To answer the inevitable that w'eve hashed out at greater length anyway--yes, if we'd traded him in 2015 we'd have gotten a far better deal than anything we would get now for a pitcher with Orathic and TJ Surgery in his past, BUT I'd argue even with a deal we don't necessarily win the pennant in 2015 without Harvey, either, or be in enough of a contender's position to ever even think of trading for Yoenis "I AM THE OFFENSE HALF THE TIME" Cespedes, let alone retain him, let alone-alone even convincing him to stay after 2016 to boot, which...eh, two pretty energizing turnarounds and runs to make the playoffs two straight years, a pennant in one and we'll see about the other, maaaaybe...but that's a whole other thread, anyway!

                That said, I'd argue the three biggest points of debate in Harvey's case (his ability vs. his looming contract deal for All-Star Ace of the Staff Money vs. his distraction quotient) are all lessened now, interestingly enough. With all the other elements to this team now, and Harvey not really a factor in the team's 2016 identity beyond getting hurt, he's not nearly the high-profile singular force he was 2013-15. He's DEFINITELY NOT "The Guy" with that level of distraction, either. (That's now Cespedes on his Golfing with an Injury days, fair or not, but again, I digress.) He's not the Matt Harvey that looked to make a killing in the market, either...and we really won't know what his skill set is like until he pitches again.

                Much as the Harvey backer in me'd like to see him come back with a vengeance yet again in 2017 (even if you dislike him, coming back from not one but TWO major arm surgeries to reassert yourself is an awesome story...but it's just that, a story to root for, not dependable reality) if he's anything but so 10/10 great the urge to keep him is too great or so 1/10 bad the urge to deal him fails in the face of not being able to get a Kleenex for him (which would be one of the sadder flame-outs in recent memory) Harvey's on the block throughout 2017 and I'd say there's a 50-75% he's out of orange and blue before the year's out.

                On the others:

                --I'd keep deGrom...he's a second #1 when on and a #2 that's a #1 elsewhere other times. He's low maintenance, so unless you're getting something in return, I'd keep him.

                --I've been banging the drum to trade Wheeler for over a year now...whoever the Mets DO keep for this rotation, they already have their advertised Big Four (Disclaimer: Bigness May Vary ), Gsellman and Lugo, and Colon wants to come back and after THIS YEAR, between the meltdowns and his leading the team in wins, the Mets would be crazy not to keep an insurance policy that's already saved them this year...bottom line? We don't need Wheeler, and unlike Harvey who, questionable health and need for him now, at least has a record of past success...Wheeler ONLY has the injuries. Get whatever you can for the so far sparest of the spare parts of this rotation and move on.

                --I've floated trading Matz before, and I'll do it again...much as I still wish all four could stay, it almost certainly won't happen, and Harvey and Matz make the most sense to deal objectively-speaking. Both have had major injuries now, Matz has an edge in youth and being lefty, Harvey has his past successes, and you won't get an A-list piece for either. You frankly will have a hard time getting an A-lister for anyone except Syndergaard at this point...and...come on...

                Were I able to will it...

                Syndergaard
                deGrom
                Harvey
                Matz
                Colon
                Whichever of Gsellman/Lugo as spot starters, and if this year's taught anything it's that those are a real need in today's day and age...

                And they'll slot-in depending on who's traded and what the nature of the staff and the Mets is like at that point. I don't think either's done enough to Gehrig out a Wally Pipp-ed starter, but they have done enough that it's easier to explore trades than it was a year ago knowing they can fill in and it won't be a case of inadvertently creating a new hole on the team in an attempt to patch an old one. I would deal Wheeler (just to get SOMETHING for him, and NOT because I think we'll get a ransom, I just really think he's so low on the chart for us and has done so little to dissuade that notion that we should just get what we can and move on) and then it depends on how well Harvey and Matz come back from injury which goes, if either/if not both (though I find two going a bit harder to believe, I don't see Alderson and the Wilpons ready to move on from this staff they've built up THAT quickly...you can decide for yourself whether that's right or not, just saying.)

                The wild cards here, Gsellman and Lugo, are just that. I can just as easily see the Mets keeping one for the staff, keeping both and going to a 6-man rotation again, using them in the aforementioned long relief/spot starter role when someone inevitably experiences "arm soreness" so we're not left in turmoil again, or dangling them to some desperate team on the backing of their late-season heroics, getting more affordable pieces in exchange for THEM.

                Really, a lot of it depends on how well the Mets do or don't do this postseason, how much, if at all, that's due to Lugo/Gsellman...and again, what Harvey and Matz are like when they come back (since I still don't think they trade deGrom, and there's a better chance of Citi Field getting struck by lightning than trading Thor.)
                "Ya Gotta Believe!" -Tug McGraw ... "How we deal with death is at least as important as how we deal with life." -James T. Kirk ... "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." -Sherlock Holmes ... "It is out of the deepest depth that the highest must come to its height." -Friedrich Nietzsche ... "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet

                Comment


                • #9
                  Could there be a structural issue with the mets pitching coaches? obviously they had great success but there is a guy (who also sometimes Posts here) called Chris o Leary who Claims that the mets pitchers all have a flaw he calls "inverted W" which can boost velocity but is suspected to cause more stress on the arm.

                  http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/...InvertedW.html

                  O Leary has also said that syndergaards mechanics are very risky.
                  Last edited by dominik; 10-04-2016, 12:46 AM.
                  I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by dominik View Post
                    Could there be a structural issue with the mets pitching coaches? obviously they had great success but there is a guy (who also sometimes Posts here) called Chris o Leary who Claims that the mets pitchers all have a flaw he calls "inverted W" which can boost velocity but is suspected to cause more stress on the arm.

                    http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/...InvertedW.html

                    O Leary has also said that syndergaards mechanics are very risky.
                    The same was said of Strasburg. So there must be something to the inverted W theory. With that said the last few years pitchers being injured is an epidemic that goes beyond the Mets.

                    The pitching motion is so unnatural and when you put the torque on a relatively small joint like the elbow with enough force to throw the ball 95-100 mph damage can happen. Add in the fact that nowadays kids are throwing 10-12 months a year that by the time they reach their early 20's they are prime candidates for a major injury.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Mongoose View Post
                      Not sure who'd be interested in trading for any of our broken pitchers. I wouldn't count on the health of Harvey, Wheeler or Matz (who's always injured). DeGrom's arm problems are often a prelude to Tommy John surgery. Syndergaard is undergoing surgery too. I'd expect none of them to recover on time, and not make any moves to trade anybody until all of the above prove they're healthy. I'd also re-sign Colon.

                      Better too much than not enough.
                      Originally posted by Shea Knight View Post
                      And now for the Devil's Advocate...or Dark Knight's, anyway.

                      That said, it's a coin flip Harvey's returning. My best guess? He does come back, at which point it's 30/70 he plays through 2017 vs. satisfying Pauly's drive to trade him.

                      To answer the inevitable that w'eve hashed out at greater length anyway--yes, if we'd traded him in 2015 we'd have gotten a far better deal than anything we would get now for a pitcher with Orathic and TJ Surgery in his past, BUT I'd argue even with a deal we don't necessarily win the pennant in 2015 without Harvey, either, or be in enough of a contender's position to ever even think of trading for Yoenis "I AM THE OFFENSE HALF THE TIME" Cespedes, let alone retain him, let alone-alone even convincing him to stay after 2016 to boot, which...eh, two pretty energizing turnarounds and runs to make the playoffs two straight years, a pennant in one and we'll see about the other, maaaaybe...but that's a whole other thread, anyway!

                      That said, I'd argue the three biggest points of debate in Harvey's case (his ability vs. his looming contract deal for All-Star Ace of the Staff Money vs. his distraction quotient) are all lessened now, interestingly enough. With all the other elements to this team now, and Harvey not really a factor in the team's 2016 identity beyond getting hurt, he's not nearly the high-profile singular force he was 2013-15. He's DEFINITELY NOT "The Guy" with that level of distraction, either. (That's now Cespedes on his Golfing with an Injury days, fair or not, but again, I digress.) He's not the Matt Harvey that looked to make a killing in the market, either...and we really won't know what his skill set is like until he pitches again.

                      Much as the Harvey backer in me'd like to see him come back with a vengeance yet again in 2017 (even if you dislike him, coming back from not one but TWO major arm surgeries to reassert yourself is an awesome story...but it's just that, a story to root for, not dependable reality) if he's anything but so 10/10 great the urge to keep him is too great or so 1/10 bad the urge to deal him fails in the face of not being able to get a Kleenex for him (which would be one of the sadder flame-outs in recent memory) Harvey's on the block throughout 2017 and I'd say there's a 50-75% he's out of orange and blue before the year's out.

                      On the others:

                      --I'd keep deGrom...he's a second #1 when on and a #2 that's a #1 elsewhere other times. He's low maintenance, so unless you're getting something in return, I'd keep him.

                      --I've been banging the drum to trade Wheeler for over a year now...whoever the Mets DO keep for this rotation, they already have their advertised Big Four (Disclaimer: Bigness May Vary ), Gsellman and Lugo, and Colon wants to come back and after THIS YEAR, between the meltdowns and his leading the team in wins, the Mets would be crazy not to keep an insurance policy that's already saved them this year...bottom line? We don't need Wheeler, and unlike Harvey who, questionable health and need for him now, at least has a record of past success...Wheeler ONLY has the injuries. Get whatever you can for the so far sparest of the spare parts of this rotation and move on.

                      --I've floated trading Matz before, and I'll do it again...much as I still wish all four could stay, it almost certainly won't happen, and Harvey and Matz make the most sense to deal objectively-speaking. Both have had major injuries now, Matz has an edge in youth and being lefty, Harvey has his past successes, and you won't get an A-list piece for either. You frankly will have a hard time getting an A-lister for anyone except Syndergaard at this point...and...come on...

                      Were I able to will it...

                      Syndergaard
                      deGrom
                      Harvey
                      Matz
                      Colon
                      Whichever of Gsellman/Lugo as spot starters, and if this year's taught anything it's that those are a real need in today's day and age...

                      And they'll slot-in depending on who's traded and what the nature of the staff and the Mets is like at that point. I don't think either's done enough to Gehrig out a Wally Pipp-ed starter, but they have done enough that it's easier to explore trades than it was a year ago knowing they can fill in and it won't be a case of inadvertently creating a new hole on the team in an attempt to patch an old one. I would deal Wheeler (just to get SOMETHING for him, and NOT because I think we'll get a ransom, I just really think he's so low on the chart for us and has done so little to dissuade that notion that we should just get what we can and move on) and then it depends on how well Harvey and Matz come back from injury which goes, if either/if not both (though I find two going a bit harder to believe, I don't see Alderson and the Wilpons ready to move on from this staff they've built up THAT quickly...you can decide for yourself whether that's right or not, just saying.)

                      The wild cards here, Gsellman and Lugo, are just that. I can just as easily see the Mets keeping one for the staff, keeping both and going to a 6-man rotation again, using them in the aforementioned long relief/spot starter role when someone inevitably experiences "arm soreness" so we're not left in turmoil again, or dangling them to some desperate team on the backing of their late-season heroics, getting more affordable pieces in exchange for THEM.

                      Really, a lot of it depends on how well the Mets do or don't do this postseason, how much, if at all, that's due to Lugo/Gsellman...and again, what Harvey and Matz are like when they come back (since I still don't think they trade deGrom, and there's a better chance of Citi Field getting struck by lightning than trading Thor.)
                      I agree here 100% with that who the hell is going to want the Mets damaged goods? What do you get back for a broken pitcher?

                      I will say again Wheeler hasn't pitched in 2 years - who in Gods name is going to give you anything for him? If they do they are insane...I wouldn't.

                      Matz - I have heard rumors that he has an upside, but has shown a massive inability to stay on field to prove it. The Mets should start charging him for MRI's.

                      Harvey - you couldn't get a bag of balls for Harvey right now.


                      Basically the Mets are stuck with what they got. I just don't see anybody trading for the Met pitchers unless the Mets are willing to get fleeced on a trade.

                      With that said at some point after the Met season is over - whether it is tomorrow or whenever I would love to hear the plan that this team has because the FA market is horrible and they have really nobody to trade. So in thinking ahead to 2017 what is the plan to actually start the season with a MLB team on the field and not have to hope and pray for a 3rd 11th hour miracle to make the playoffs?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Paulypal View Post
                        With that said at some point after the Met season is over - whether it is tomorrow or whenever I would love to hear the plan that this team has because the FA market is horrible and they have really nobody to trade. So in thinking ahead to 2017 what is the plan to actually start the season with a MLB team on the field and not have to hope and pray for a 3rd 11th hour miracle to make the playoffs?
                        Who do they have in the farm system that looks promising?

                        Do we believe TJ Rivera is really this good, or it he another Nieuwenhius type who the league just hasn't caught up to yet? Do the Mets think Reyes is good enough to play a full season? Do they resign Cespedes when he opts out? Do they pick up Duda and Bruce's options? Do they take a chance on Walker, or do they go with Johnson, Rivera, Flores Retyes, Cabrera and an unnamed 1st baseman?

                        Is Conforto for real? How about Nimmo and Lagares?

                        Next year is far off still. At least this team jelled at the right time and went on a historic run the last 2 months of the season. Let's all hope that continues beyond tomorrow.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Paulypal View Post
                          I agree here 100% with that who the hell is going to want the Mets damaged goods? What do you get back for a broken pitcher?

                          I will say again Wheeler hasn't pitched in 2 years - who in Gods name is going to give you anything for him? If they do they are insane...I wouldn't.

                          Matz - I have heard rumors that he has an upside, but has shown a massive inability to stay on field to prove it. The Mets should start charging him for MRI's.

                          Harvey - you couldn't get a bag of balls for Harvey right now.


                          Basically the Mets are stuck with what they got. I just don't see anybody trading for the Met pitchers unless the Mets are willing to get fleeced on a trade.

                          With that said at some point after the Met season is over - whether it is tomorrow or whenever I would love to hear the plan that this team has because the FA market is horrible and they have really nobody to trade. So in thinking ahead to 2017 what is the plan to actually start the season with a MLB team on the field and not have to hope and pray for a 3rd 11th hour miracle to make the playoffs?
                          If the topic is trading broken pitchers for something I agree. If the topic is trading pitchers for a good return the pitcher to trade has to be Syndergaard. Regardless of how he does tomorrow.

                          I say keep them all. Spring training will hopefully tell who's ready or not.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by LI METS FAN View Post
                            If the topic is trading broken pitchers for something I agree. If the topic is trading pitchers for a good return the pitcher to trade has to be Syndergaard. Regardless of how he does tomorrow.

                            I say keep them all. Spring training will hopefully tell who's ready or not.
                            Unfortunately they have to keep them all due to health issues. This is not a great situation for them to be in.

                            They still need upgrades at a variety of positions, and can/will not fill them through free agency.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              With Colon gone, it looks like the rotation is going to be a bunch of kids in 2017. This could be very exciting.

                              Comment

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