An Early Update: Minor Leaguers From the 2012 Draft

[Ben Grimm]

John Sickels is going round by round over these weeks looking at 2012's draft class on a round-by-round effort to get a glimpse of what some of these kids are doing. With the new CBP, players get to start earlier out of the chute and can now actually get a feel of the pro level before the season ends. The sample sizes are small of course, but it at least gives us a quick snapshot of the early goings. I'll post Sickels' comments as he's thru round 4 so far and I'm not sure how many rounds he'll actually do.

I've listed below the current statistics of players the Phils drafted this year from the first-500 players selected overall. I'll update the list at the end of the season as well as a few times next year. If there's a player you're interested in, let me know and I'll add him.

Name (pick#)          Lvl    ERA    IP   BB   K  WHIP
.
Shane Watson (40)      Rk    1.29   7.0   1   8  0.857
Mitch Gueller (54)     RK    4.88  24.0   8  13  1.250
Hoby Milner (248)      A-/A  3.04  56.1  20  40  1.243
Jordan Guth (308)      A-    4.50  28.0   2  12  1.036
Kevin Brady (338)      Rk/A- 1.87  33.2   5  43  1.158
Rich Bielski (458)     Rk    3.07  14.2   7   5  1.568
Zach Cooper (488)      A-/A  1.21  29.2  13  23  1.079



Name (pick#)          Lvl     PA    H  XBH  SB   AVG   OPS  POS
.
Dylan Cozens (77)      Rk    177   41   18   8  .265  .810  OF
Zach Green (125)       Rk    175   47   17   2  .292  .784  SS/3B
Chris Serritella (158) A-    267   72   29   0  .294  .805  1B
Andrew Pullin (188)    Rk    152   41   10   3  .311  .814  OF
Cameron Perkins (218)  Rk/A- 255   66   19   5  .283  .711  1B/3B
Josh Ludy (278)        A     110   25   11   0  .269  .761  C
William Carmona (368)  Rk/A  174   43   13   0  .270  .731  1B/3B
Zach Taylor (398)      Rk/A- 122   18    6   0  .165  .512  OF
Steve Golden (428)     Rk     62   10    2   2  .172  .437  OF

Sickels Comments:

40) Shane Watson, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies: Five shutout innings in rookie ball so far, two hits, no walks, seven strikeouts. No complaints in a tiny sample.

54) Mitch Gueller, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies: 4.88 ERA with 13/8 K/BB in 24 innings in Gulf Coast League, 22 hits. Shuts down righties (.220) but need weapon against lefties (.300).

77) Dylan Cozens, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: .250/.343/.419 with 21 walks, 40 strikeouts, eight steals in 10 attempts over 148 at-bats for the Gulf Coast League Phillies. One of the "who is that guy" names from early in the draft, showing some tools in rookie ball.

125) Zach Green, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies: .305/.353/.461 with seven walks, 36 strikeouts in 154 at-bats for GCL Phillies. Error-prone but has good arm and range, bat is zippy but impatient.

158) Chris Serritella, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies: .299/.357/.461 with 21 walks, 44 strikeouts in 241 at-bats for Williamsport in the NY-P. Power the key attraction here and he's showing it, but there are some concerns about how it will play against more advanced pitching. Lacks tools otherwise.

[philliesfiend55]

I like the kid first baseman William Carmona a lot. As soon as his team was eliminated from The College World Series he signed with the Phillies, got assigned to a minor league team, and started hacking. In a few years he might make people wonder why he wasn't drafted until the 11th round. He could be a "classic sleeper" prospect.

[philliesfiend55]

I think William Carmona is going to prove to be a steal with the Phillies finding him still available to be drafted in the 11th round. He was a big part of why his team reached THE COLLEGE WORLD SERIES. He may be a "Classic Sleeper" prospect. It's interesting that four guys drafted in June in the first 15 rounds have already reached the full season A level with Lakewood (NJ)/South Atlantic League (Milner, Ludy Carmona .& Cooper). Apparently those guys were scouted well. They weren't at the top of the draft. They fall in the 8th through 15th rounds category and yet they are already making good progress in advancing through the system.

[Ben Grimm]

It will be interesting to see how many of these kids rise up thru the system.

When the draft rolled around, I only wanted to see the Phillies do one thing - draft college hitters early. This team needed quick risers to fill the many holes available.

I really wanted Patrick Wisdom who the Cardinals took at #52 in the comp round. He was a solid 3B who'd likely reach AA by the end of next year as a 21 year old. Granted, this was based on the fact the Phils had nobody in the system close - Asche was only hitting .192 last year and Franco was still a reach and a long ways off.

I've been hoping and hoping the Phils would fill the void left by the departure of Rolen and so far, it hasn't happened. I was following the draft in '05 and everything I heard about Chase Headley had me thinking he was the logical choice for the Phils. He was sound defensively and a fairly polished hitter. He was sitting there and the Phils went for the hole-in-his-swing Mike Costanzo. We saw how that worked out.

Best case scenario is that Asche can come up to play 3B by the end of next year. Eventually, maybe he slides over to 2B if Franco looks to be ready.

[philliesfiend55]

Asche has almost reached .300 at Reading, after hitting .349 at Clearwater. . We may already have found our third baseman of the future.

[Ben Grimm]

Call me skeptic, but I need to see more. I've seen guys where the switch just flips for a year only to drop brutally the next. I'm hoping he's legit, but not holding my breath.

But, even if he drops a bit, I still think he'll have an adequate bat for 2B. That will need to be addressed as early as 2014, and I still think Franco is a more legitimate 3B option for the future.

[philliesfiend55]

Asche is at .301 through Monday's games. Plus the .349 at Clerwater and with 12 combinred HRs and 70 combined RBI for the two levels.
That kind of season might get you The Minor League Position Player of the Year - Paul Owens Award in a normal year. Of course Asche will be a distant runner-up to Darin Ruf this year.

[Ben Grimm]

Asche is at .301 through Monday's games. Plus the .349 at Clerwater and with 12 combinred HRs and 70 combined RBI for the two levels.
That kind of season might get you The Minor League Position Player of the Year - Paul Owens Award in a normal year. Of course Asche will be a distant runner-up to Darin Ruf this year.

He's been absolutely dynoooooomite!, but I'm still not sold yet. I need to see upper levels. Not a knock on Asche, but simple due diligence as I'm sure the Phils are doing right now.

[philliesfiend55]

He's been absolutely dynoooooomite!, but I'm still not sold yet. I need to see upper levels. Not a knock on Asche, but simple due diligence as I'm sure the Phils are doing right now.

Of course, a lot is going to depend on if the Phillies strengthen the third base situation with acquistions this off-season, but Asche has been the fastest rising star in the Phillies minor league system, by far. With his current rate of progress I see no reason for him to repeat AA next year. I'd start Asche at AAA and if circumstances allow, I'd bring him up to Philadelphia by either the all-star break or the Trade Deadline at the end of July (Even with an ultra-conservative approach by Amaro should have him promoted to Philadelphia by Late August by the latest, in order to make him eligible for the postseason.)

[philliesfiend55]

Ruf is now at 37 HR, 98 RBI and is leading the minor leagues in both categories. His batting average is over .315.
He tied Ryan Howard's Reading Phillies team HR record yesterday, although he had quite a lot more games and at bats than Howard to accomplish it in.
Ruf's Next goals: 100 RBI and a team record 38th home run..