2013 ZiPS projections

[Ben Grimm]

IIRC, Benito was simply a short buy for the Phils in order to get Lieberthal ready as an every day catcher. Santiago did well with his '96 season as it did earn him a multi-year deal with the Blue Jays.

[philliesfiend55]

Highest project WAR for a position player is Chase Utley's 3.4 . I just read somewhere that the last time the Phillies had a player not surpass 3.5 was way back in 1996, when Jim Eisenreich led the way with a 2.8 WAR. That team was brutal and finished 67-93 with the worst offense in the league - not surprisingly. This group of players has much better overall talent than that team did, but it still needs to stay healthy to get the most overall production. Here's how the primary eight position players stack up between 1996 and the projected totals for this season.

   Name      POS  WAR      Name   POS  WAR 

J. Eisenreich RF  2.8 | C. Utley   2B  3.4
B. Santiago    C  2.7 | J. Rollins SS  3.3
G. Jefferies  1B  1.3 | C. Ruiz     C  3.3
K. Stocker    SS  1.3 | B. Revere  CF  2.2
T. Zeile      3B  0.5 | D. Brown   RF  1.9
P. Incaviglia LF  0.4 | M. Young   3B  1.9
M. Morandini  2B -0.4 | R. Howard  1B  1.1
R. Otero      CF -0.5 | D. Ruf     LF  1.0
----------------------|-------------------
TOTAL             8.1 | TOTAL         18.1

Not even really all that close. Add in for platoons, replacements, etc for both teams and the variance becomes even larger. For the starting rotation, only Curt Schilling provided a quality performance. Zips' WAR for this year's starters looks pretty accurate and Halladay's could go +1/-1 depending on his health.

                                PROJ.
   Name        WAR      Name     WAR

C. Schilling   4.7 | C. Lee      4.9
S. Fernandez   1.7 | C. Hamels   4.4
M. Grace       1.7 | R. Halladay 3.6
T. Mulholland  1.1 | K. Kendrick 1.2
M. Williams   -0.3 | J. Lannan   1.1
M. Mimbs      -0.4 |
R. Hunter     -0.9 |
-------------------|----------------
TOTAL          7.6 | TOTAL      15.2

Once again, it's not even close when comparing the two seasons. The Phils went 44-31 (.587) during the second half. That's when Howard and Utley were finally in the lineup and half of those games were played after Victorino and Pence were already moved. It's this reason that I don't agree with the 78 win total mentioned in the OP. While this team didn't make any huge upgrades this offseason, they did solidify positions of need and Ruben kept his defense up the middle with the Revere acquisition. That second half pace was 95 wins over 162 games. While I don't think they'll reach that number, I still see this team as an 85-87 win group. Is that enough to guarantee a playoff spot? Highly doubtful. But if they're on that pace, there certainly will be a deadline deal or two of at least some impact to help near that 90-win plateau.

How did Benito Santiago have his best home run year, with 30, and one of his best RBI years in 1996 and have only a 2.7 WAR?

(I always thought that Santiago made a mistake in leaving Philly for free agency after the '96 season. That park's dimensions (Veterans Stadium) was perfect for him and it was always reputed to have one of the best batting eyes, or background area in centerfield from which a batter's vision could pick up a pitch heading plateward. Santiago never approached a 30 homer season again.)

[Ben Grimm]

As sad as these ZIPS projections were heading into the season, they're going to end up even worse overall. The only positions to come close this year will be 1B & 2B with 1B being a very simple target number. Catcher, shortstop, third base and the outfield have been disasters. Here's where the position players stand as we near the 90% mark of the season:

POSITION ZIPS (ACTUAL from BBRef)

CATCHER 4.6 (1.4)
Ruiz 3.3 (1.6)
Kratz 1.3 (-0.2)

FIRST BASE 2.1 (1.4)
Howard 1.1 (0.7)
Ruf 1.0 (0.7)

SECOND BASE 4.3 (3.9)
Utley 3.4 (3.2)
Frandsen 0.9 (0.7)

SHORTSTOP 4.6 (-0.7)
Rollins 3.3 (-0.4)
Galvis 1.3 (-0.3)

THIRD BASE 1.4 (-0.9)
Young 1.4 (-1.0)
Asche (0.1)

OUTFIELD 4.3 (1.0)
Revere 2.2 (0.7)
Brown 1.9 (3.0)
Nix 0.5 (-0.6)
Mayberry 0.5 (-0.9)
Young -0.8 (-1.2)

The only starters from opening day who look to reach or exceed their projections are Utley and Brown. Asche didn't have one so everything he gets is a bonus lol. Frandsen and Ruf will likely reach as well, but their expectations per ZIPS were low to begin with.

This is part of why this team is now projected to win just 72 games as opposed to the 78 or so ZIPS had them with had they played to their conservative projections.

[Ben Grimm]

They are projecting Howard to hit .325? Has he ever had that high a batting average?

Oh, wait. That's OBP. That makes more sense.

Hah! I read your first sentence and it instantly made me do a quick double-check thinking Zips had a wtf moment.

Howard needs to produce this year for this team to survive. I'm not expecting anything like his early seasons, but there's no real reason not to think he can't at least duplicate 2010 when he played 140 or so games and went 30/ 100+ , .275 avg, .350 obp, 500 slg. Well there is a bit of a reason as he's regressed each of the past few seasons into a bad pattern, but he's still young enough to have a rebound year. April could give us an idea as to what to expect from him.

[Phils V. Pirates]

Not such good news for phans. ZipS projects the Phils for about 78 wins.

Phans certainly won't like the projections for:
Ryan Howard: .325/.463 (OBP/SLG), 23 HR, 89 RBI, Total offense 10% better than league average. 1.1 WAR

They are projecting Howard to hit .325? Has he ever had that high a batting average?

Oh, wait. That's OBP. That makes more sense.

[Ben Grimm]

Highest project WAR for a position player is Chase Utley's 3.4 . I just read somewhere that the last time the Phillies had a player not surpass 3.5 was way back in 1996, when Jim Eisenreich led the way with a 2.8 WAR. That team was brutal and finished 67-93 with the worst offense in the league - not surprisingly. This group of players has much better overall talent than that team did, but it still needs to stay healthy to get the most overall production. Here's how the primary eight position players stack up between 1996 and the projected totals for this season.

   Name      POS  WAR      Name   POS  WAR 

J. Eisenreich RF  2.8 | C. Utley   2B  3.4
B. Santiago    C  2.7 | J. Rollins SS  3.3
G. Jefferies  1B  1.3 | C. Ruiz     C  3.3
K. Stocker    SS  1.3 | B. Revere  CF  2.2
T. Zeile      3B  0.5 | D. Brown   RF  1.9
P. Incaviglia LF  0.4 | M. Young   3B  1.9
M. Morandini  2B -0.4 | R. Howard  1B  1.1
R. Otero      CF -0.5 | D. Ruf     LF  1.0
----------------------|-------------------
TOTAL             8.1 | TOTAL         18.1

Not even really all that close. Add in for platoons, replacements, etc for both teams and the variance becomes even larger. For the starting rotation, only Curt Schilling provided a quality performance. Zips' WAR for this year's starters looks pretty accurate and Halladay's could go +1/-1 depending on his health.

                                PROJ.
   Name        WAR      Name     WAR

C. Schilling   4.7 | C. Lee      4.9
S. Fernandez   1.7 | C. Hamels   4.4
M. Grace       1.7 | R. Halladay 3.6
T. Mulholland  1.1 | K. Kendrick 1.2
M. Williams   -0.3 | J. Lannan   1.1
M. Mimbs      -0.4 |
R. Hunter     -0.9 |
-------------------|----------------
TOTAL          7.6 | TOTAL      15.2

Once again, it's not even close when comparing the two seasons. The Phils went 44-31 (.587) during the second half. That's when Howard and Utley were finally in the lineup and half of those games were played after Victorino and Pence were already moved. It's this reason that I don't agree with the 78 win total mentioned in the OP. While this team didn't make any huge upgrades this offseason, they did solidify positions of need and Ruben kept his defense up the middle with the Revere acquisition. That second half pace was 95 wins over 162 games. While I don't think they'll reach that number, I still see this team as an 85-87 win group. Is that enough to guarantee a playoff spot? Highly doubtful. But if they're on that pace, there certainly will be a deadline deal or two of at least some impact to help near that 90-win plateau.

[Ben Grimm]

No surprises there. Aging and injury-prone lineup with an outfield that could be one of the worst in baseball if only due to lack of experience.

This team's built around pitching with any offense now almost a bonus. The problem comes when the core is injured and other teams come to CBP and are better built for this park. I think they're an 85-88 win team as currently constructed with the bulk of the players remaining fairly healthy. But there are quite a few "ifs" for a team who won 102 games only a year ago.

Unlike the Yankees this year with the ARod situation, the Phils really had no warning last year that Ryan and Chase would miss significant time. Howard was already running very early in ST prior to developing an infection to his surgically-repaired ankle which pushed his timetable back six weeks. Chase was good to go during ST when he suddenly couldn't play anymore until the AS break. By that time, it's too late to make moves to cover the loss so players had to be put in positions they're not comfortable with - Rollins hitting 3rd, Pence hitting 4th, etc.

[filihok]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2013-zips-projections-philadelphia-phillies/

Not such good news for phans. ZipS projects the Phils for about 78 wins.

Phans certainly won't like the projections for:
Ryan Howard: .325/.463 (OBP/SLG), 23 HR, 89 RBI, Total offense 10% better than league average. 1.1 WAR
Darren Ruf: .321/.420, 17 HR, 73 RBI, Total offense league average. 1 WAR
John Mayberry: .303/.410, 15 HR, 55 RBI, Total offense 10% worse than league average. .5 WAR

The projections for
Dom Brown: .332/.461, 18 HR, 60 RBI, Total offense 12% better than league average. 2.2 WAR
Cliff Lee: 200 IP, 3.06 ERA, 2.88 FIP, about 25% better than league average. 4.9 WAR
Cole Hamels: 204 IP, 3.26 ERA, 3.34 FIP, about 15% better than league average. 4.4 WAR
Roy Halladay: 179 IP, 3.42 ERA, 3.12 FIP, about 15% better than league average. 3.6 WAR

should help