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Statistically, why are we losing?

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  • Statistically, why are we losing?

    Basically, because I'm sort of depressed right now (we all are), I wanted to look for the factual reasons why we are losing, beyond the obvious starting pitching woes. Looking at the offense and the defense, you can see why it's not just the pitching.

    1. Offense

    Here is our offensive production by position (AVG./.OBP/.SLG)

    C:
    Ronny Paulino (.303/.353/.389) in 185 ABs
    Humberto Cota (.227/.282/.242) in 66 ABs
    Ryan Doumit (.214/.274/.411) in 56 ABs

    Paulino has been great so far, and the catching position figures to continually improve as (hopefully) a healthy Doumit returns to oust the hapless Cota, although Paulino's solid play has likely won him the job for now. We are above-average offensively here.

    1B:
    Sean Casey (.291/.379/.449) in 127 ABs
    Jose Hernandez (.177/.239/.274) in 62 ABs

    Casey has been fairly consistant in hitting singles, but not much more than that. He's one of our better hitters, but you need more from first base. This is a problem, since we don't really have a better option and he's not a bad player, but we're still way below average offensively here. And Hernandez is virtually useless.

    2B:
    Jose Castillo (.273/.332/.453) in 256 ABs

    Castillo has hit very well this season, showing decent power and even a little bit of on-base skills. If he can keep this up second base should be a bright spot offensively.

    3B:
    Freddy Sanchez (.351/.388/.500) in 248 ABs
    Joe Randa (.245/.284/.353) in 102 ABs

    Freddy has obviously been excellent. He needs to walk more, as his value is almost completely in his batting average, but as long as he hits .350 nobody's complaining. On the other hand, Randa is getting more playing time, and his abysmal 637 OPS is just awful for a starting third baseman. Whenever Freddy plays anywhere else on the diamond, third is an offensive black hole.

    SS:
    Jack Wilson (.275/.314/.404) in 265 ABs

    You can't expect too much more than this from Jack. It's not a bad line from a shortstop, even though such a low OBP at the top of the lineup is suicide. However, this really isn;t worse than the other shortstops in the league, and his glove puts him over the top.

    LF:
    Jason Bay (.290/.407/.562) in 276 ABs

    No comment required.

    CF:
    Nate McLouth (.220/.289/.330) in 182 ABs
    Jose Bautista (.219/.329/.484) in 128 ABs
    Chris Duffy (.194/.255/.276) in 98 ABs

    Center field has been terrible this year, compounded because Tracey refuses to hit our center fielders anwhere but leadoff, although none of them can get on base to save their lives. When your #1 and #2 hitters can't get on base at a clip collectively above .300, it's kind of hard to score runs. Bautista is the only one of this group who has had any kind of offensive value, because of his power. This position is killing us.

    RF:
    Jeromy Burnitz (.231/.280/.430) in 221 ABs
    Craig Wilson (.271/.354/.495) in 210 ABs

    Burnitz has been a bust, and Craig has pretty much hit the exact same way he has since 2001. Which is kind of better than Burnitz. But that's another issue. The current one is that when Burnitz, Randa, and McLouth start, we have four useless spots in our lineup.

    2. Defense:

    I'm going to go position by position, and measure offensive production by Rate, on which a score of 100 is perfectly average. The number in parenthesis after the position is our total Rate, or the collective score of all our players of that position. The results of this were kind of surprising.

    C: (99)
    Ronny Paulino (100)
    Humberto Cota (89)
    Ryan Doumit (114)-small sample size

    Basically, Paulino has done just fine, and Cota-whatever his reputation-has been awful. Basically, Cota needs to go.

    1B: (91)
    Sean Casey (90)
    Craig Wilson (93)
    Jose Hernandez (100)

    Both of our main first baseman are pretty bad with the glove. As a team, our first base defense is way below average.

    2B: (82)
    Jose Castillo (82)

    How did this happen? Castillo has been quite a good defensive player up till this year, but his defensive numbers this year are absolutely terrible. Just when he makes gains with the bat, he gives it back with the glove. This is significantly hurting the team.

    3B: (107)
    Freddy Sanchez (110)
    Joe Randa (105)
    Jose Bautista (100)

    Third base has shown some good defense this year, as Freddy flashed a nice glove. Whatever Randa's offensive struggles, he's fielded well also, and even Bautista has held his own. No problems here.

    SS: (108)
    Jack Wilson (108)
    Freddy Sanchez (109)

    We're definitely not hurting here.

    LF: (104)
    Jason Bay (104)

    Bay has been great again in left field, and we haven't really had any problems.

    CF: (89)
    Nate McLouth (84)
    Chris Duffy (87)
    Jose Bautista (100)

    Another big problem spot. McLouth and Duffy have been just as bad with the glove as with the bat, although Bautista has been adequate. Something needs to be done to address our center field woes, because this position is killing us right now.

    RF: (88)
    Jeromy Burnitz (89)
    Craig Wilson (93)
    Nate McClouth (54)

    54?? Are you serious?? Yes. We're just as bad defensively in right as we are in center, making a total of four positions in which we play awful defense.

    Defensively, we are dead last of all thirty teams, with a Defensive Efficiency ratio of .663. Also, this inflates our pitchers ERAs considerably, making them appear even worse than they really are. This is a huge problem.

    IN SUMMARY:

    We have several problems outisde of pitching. Some of these include:

    1. A top of the order that can't get on to save its life.
    2. Too many at-bats allocated to useless hitter-McLouth, Hernandez, Cota, Randa, Burnitz, often over Sanchez and C. Wilson.
    3. A league-worst defense.
    4. A lack of depth that leaves us with no real starter in center field, and no competent hitters coming off the bench.

  • #2
    Because the rotation is terrible.
    Rest in Peace Jose Fernandez (1992-2016)

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by HankAaron86
      Because the rotation is terrible.
      For someone who has stated he'd like to be a mod, you sure aren't going about it very well. Please don't go into another team's forum to simply rip on them, unless you have substance behiond that post.
      Dave Bill Tom George Mark Bob Ernie Soupy Dick Alex Sparky
      Joe Gary MCA Emanuel Sonny Dave Earl Stan
      Jonathan Neil Roger Anthony Ray Thomas Art Don
      Gates Philip John Warrior Rik Casey Tony Horace
      Robin Bill Ernie JEDI

      Comment


      • #4
        Nice analysis Gooooo!

        The first inning of tonights CHIS/PIT game is giving us a nice contrast. The Sox have the carousel going. With Podsednik leading off with a single and stealing second. He then gets in 2 singles later. And it just keeps coming.

        As I'm posting this the top half isn't even over yet
        Montreal Expos 1969 - 2004

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        • #5
          Well, first off, the starting rotation HAS been abysmal... however, Ian Snell has been pitching well after a poor start. Duke has been trying to fight his way out of a year-long slump, and Maholm has been pitching nicely lately. Sadly, it may be a little too late.. I also give a little blame to the the pitching coach... not as much as the local media has, but he really SHOULDN'T have tampered with Duke's recipe for success.

          As for the hitting. Without going into a full-out breakdown..

          C: Paulino has shown promise... he even draws some walks. I have noticed he likes to swing at some poor pitches from time to time, thus getting weak hits, hence easy outs.

          1B: Casey.. I like Sean Casey, but he's hurt a lot, but when he plays, he's a pretty good tablesetter... unfortunately, there's rarely been anyone there to clear the table.

          2B: Castillo.. he's been very solid this year... his number might be a notch right at or a hair below average if not for the couple fantastic weeks he had there, but even so, his defense is great.

          SS: I really like Jack Wilson, but I just can't seem to put my finger on what his deal is.. I thought for sure he was going to have a good comeback year this year the way he started off. He's as cold NOW as he was HOT at beginning of the season. Could be a bi-product of Jim Tracy throwing Jack under the bus in a couple of post-game interviews. I do know Jack was a little upset. Not saying he's tanking, but it IS tough to play when you got stuff on your mind, especially when something angers you. No excuse, but a possible explanation. I hope he comes out of it.

          3B: FREDDY, FREDDY, FREDDY!!!! lol

          OF: This has been pretty weak... Jason Bay is solid, but this year he's been on a rollercoaster. He started off WAY slow, then went on a monster tear, his BA was up above .315 or so, then he just went completely south from there. Craig and Burnitz are both being their normal "feast or famine" selves.

          It's been a very frustrating year for a Bucco fan, that's for sure... I just hope better things are on the horizon.

          I probably went off on a tangent here, but basically, my point was that sometimes no matter what "numbers" people put up, it's a moot point if people ahead of you and behind you aren't putting up adequate numbers as well. You really can't expect to win unless you're getting good production from at LEAST 6 spots in your batting order. Pirates just don't have that many consistant spots for offense.
          Mike Roble
          Pirate Fan Since Birth

          Comment


          • #6
            Welcome MSRoble (I basically dragged him kicking and screaming over here from our other forum, MLBCenter.com)...

            And I'll add this to your point...the Pirates seem to have a lot of hitters who either crush the ball or look ugly making lame outs (Craig Wilson, Jeremy Burnitz, Paulino...) I read this as a line-up with too many "cripple hitters"...guys who feast on mistakes but can't hit good pitching...and not enough consistent money-pitch batters (guys like Ichiro who can hit anyone) to compete against even adqueate pitchers. The Pirates need ot look for a better balance, and particularly need to find some hitters with a good eye for the strikezone. I feel your pain, guys...my Mariners are similarly unbalanced (although that is starting to shift this year) and have had some dismal seasons because of it.

            Comment


            • #7
              Exactly... and to make it worse, even if the Pirates did what the fans wanted and went out and paid for a solid player or two, they'd just be wasting the team's money, that player's time, and more of the fans patience. Because there's no one there to instill in our young core the importance of drawing walks, learning how to hit the various pitches. It's one thing to get held to minimum offense because of a good pitcher, but more often than not, the hitters are beating themselves due to lack of patience.

              And management is showing me they have:
              a) no clue
              b) no faith

              The other night, the Pirates were up 3-0 to the defending champs, the White Sox. Maholm goes 6 complete, giving up like 3-4 hits, no ER, and they leave him in for like 2-3 batters too long. Maholm giving up that first hit, I'd have been ready to yank him. Not because I don't have faith in him, but let's face it... going through THAT lineup twice and not allowing a run? You should count your blessings.

              It's stuff like this or the equivalent, that has annihilated our season.

              Oh, and this place seems cool... I hope to talk ball with a lot of fellow baseball fans..
              Mike Roble
              Pirate Fan Since Birth

              Comment


              • #8
                Here's why the starting rotation is not that great:

                Kip Wells was recouperating from his surgery. Victor Santos struggled at first, then heated up and then froze when he was placed on the DL. Oliver Perez struggles because he wasn't used to the pitching coach's signs, and look at him in the McClendon years. Maholm has been lacking run support from his team, as he creates a huge gap. Flaming hot fastballs that create home runs doesn't really help the Pirates either. Neither have injuries to the team.

                McClatchy, could you please shop for a decent SP during the winter or get a good SP or good CF? That way the Pirates can contend for the NL Central, and not get treated as the laughingstock of baseball.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by MSRoble
                  Oh, and this place seems cool... I hope to talk ball with a lot of fellow baseball fans..
                  Welcome aboard, MSRoble!

                  Good to see another Bucco's fan here. As a displaced Expos fan, I've started following them this season and have been trying to get this forum more active. I have no idea why I picked the Pirates but having a Canadian like Jason Bay sure helps. Although Freddy Sanchez has probably become my favourite Bucco as it stands right now.

                  Your posts seem great, don't be shy to add more!
                  Montreal Expos 1969 - 2004

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Ontarioguy
                    Welcome aboard, MSRoble!

                    Good to see another Bucco's fan here. As a displaced Expos fan, I've started following them this season and have been trying to get this forum more active. I have no idea why I picked the Pirates but having a Canadian like Jason Bay sure helps. Although Freddy Sanchez has probably become my favourite Bucco as it stands right now.

                    Your posts seem great, don't be shy to add more!
                    Well, I MUST tell you, the Pittsburgh Pirates have quite the heritage and history behind them. There's been some legendary players to don a Buccos uniform over the past several decades.

                    Unfortunately all most of the good ones have been sidestepping us for the last decade and a half... lol

                    I still believe in the organization... probably not who's running the organization, but at some point I have to believe we'll be fielding a winner. And all this will make it sweeter.

                    I just hope I get to live to see this winner.
                    Mike Roble
                    Pirate Fan Since Birth

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      It all comes down to pitching
                      Pirates Fan Forever!!!!!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by MSRoble
                        The other night, the Pirates were up 3-0 to the defending champs, the White Sox. Maholm goes 6 complete, giving up like 3-4 hits, no ER, and they leave him in for like 2-3 batters too long. Maholm giving up that first hit, I'd have been ready to yank him. Not because I don't have faith in him, but let's face it... going through THAT lineup twice and not allowing a run? You should count your blessings.
                        This is a nasty little habit Tracy has that drives me crazy. I think it was against Houston, Perez had a gem going into the 9th, and was looking for the CG and shutout. Bucco's have a 4-0 lead and tracy lets him give up 2 hits before yanking him. Should have been out as soon as he gave up that first hit, in not by the end of the 8th. Instead it all just snowballs and turns into a 5-4 loss. Instead of it being a real booster for Perez it turns into a nightmare for the enitre team.

                        This has happened more than once. I find Tracy gets a little to sentimental at times. I just wish he would be more pragmatic, is all.
                        Montreal Expos 1969 - 2004

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Like my Royals the Buccos can't pitch or play defense. And since neither club is the '27 Yanks with the bat they are doomed to lose a bazillion games. And neither club's front office is manned by Mensa candidates.
                          Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Ontarioguy
                            This is a nasty little habit Tracy has that drives me crazy. I think it was against Houston, Perez had a gem going into the 9th, and was looking for the CG and shutout. Bucco's have a 4-0 lead and tracy lets him give up 2 hits before yanking him. Should have been out as soon as he gave up that first hit, in not by the end of the 8th. Instead it all just snowballs and turns into a 5-4 loss. Instead of it being a real booster for Perez it turns into a nightmare for the enitre team.

                            This has happened more than once. I find Tracy gets a little to sentimental at times. I just wish he would be more pragmatic, is all.
                            Exactly... and it's not like our closer gets SOOOOOOOOOO much action that you can't afford to throw him in for "non-save" situations...In both games we have mentioned, I'd have probably gone with the closer. Screw whether the save "stat" is in effect or not, you want the W!!

                            Tonight's loss burns me up... you'd almost think they weren't even trying. 5-0 and the announcers were going on and on about how Kip Wells should be pleased with this outting and should take it as a positive as he moves forward in the season.. Their rationale was that NYM scored a 5-spot in the 1st frame, and then Kip blanked them after that. Personally, I think NYM just went on "cruise control"... lol
                            Mike Roble
                            Pirate Fan Since Birth

                            Comment

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