What do you expect from Bonds in 2006?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

There seems to be an assumed position that Bonds will simply continue to produce at a HoF level in 2006. But Bonds will be 42 years old in July 2006. Will Bonds even hit 20 HRs in 2006? Here are the most HR by 41 years olds according to Baseball-Reference.com. I would have posted the record for 42 year olds but Baseball-Reference doesn't go that high in age!

1. Ted Williams 29 1960
2. Darrell Evans 22 1988
3. Dave Winfield 21 1993
4. Stan Musial 19 1962
5. Graig Nettles 16 1986
6. Reggie Jackson 15 1987
Willie McCovey 15 1979
8. Carlton Fisk 13 1989
9. Hank Aaron 12 1975
Edgar Martinez 12 2004
Hank Sauer 12 1958

So for Bonds to hit say 35 HRs he would have to buck over 100 years of baseball history. Can we really rely on him doing that? It is quite possible that bonds could hit .260, 15 hrs and slug .450. Lets discuss...

[west coast orange and black]

wags: for Bonds to hit say 35 HRs he would have to buck over 100 years of baseball history. Can we really rely on him doing that? It is quite possible that bonds could hit .260, 15 hrs and slug .450... Will Bonds even hit 20 HRs in 2006?...

as soon as bonds steps onto the field he has .260 / 15 / .450 in his hip pocket, right there next to his canister of chew. seriously, i think that bonds will surpass those numbers.

what he ends up with, numbers-wise, will all depend on the number of at-bats for the man.
for now, i see bonds going .330 / 35 / .680, minimum.

1. since 2000 bonds has hit a home run every 8.29 at bats. (9.8; 6.52; 8.76. 8.67; 8.29; 8.4);

2. since 2000 bonds has had, on average, 2.96 at-bats per game. (2164/730);

3. there has never been a player in the history of the game like barry bonds.

[KHenry14]

I think WCOB is pretty close in his prediction for Barry this year. Another element in this is that he has a better lineup around him than he's had in a while. That doesn't mean Barry wont get walked 100+ times this year, but it will mean that the Giants will score a lot because of all of the guys on base.

Which is a key to the Giants season, the 5-7 hitters collecting the runners that will be on base ahead of them.

But to be specific, I see Barry with between 30-40 hrs. assuming he stays healthy.

KH14

And WCOB is correct, there never has been a player like Barry before.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

wags: for Bonds to hit say 35 HRs he would have to buck over 100 years of baseball history. Can we really rely on him doing that? It is quite possible that bonds could hit .260, 15 hrs and slug .450... Will Bonds even hit 20 HRs in 2006?...

as soon as bonds steps onto the field he has .260 / 15 / .450 in his hip pocket, right there next to his canister of chew. seriously, i think that bonds will surpass those numbers.

what he ends up with, numbers-wise, will all depend on the number of at-bats for the man.
for now, i see bonds going .330 / 35 / .680, minimum.

1. since 2000 bonds has hit a home run every 8.29 at bats. (9.8; 6.52; 8.76. 8.67; 8.29; 8.4);

2. since 2000 bonds has had, on average, 2.96 at-bats per game. (2164/730);

Yes but Bonds wasn't 41-42 years old from 2000-2004. In 1973 Hank Aaron had a HUGE year at age 39. He hit .301/.402/.643, 40 HR, 86 RBI, 84 R in only 120 games (390 ABs). Those are Bonds like numbers. We would expect the Aaron would have come close to those numbers in 1974. He didn't. He hit only 20 HRs in 112 games. M point is that players at this age can lose it "overnight". Bond is not immune to this.I guess we'll get a better feel in Spring Training.I'm hope I'm wrong.

3. there has never been a player in the history of the game like barry bonds.

And there has never been a player like Ruth, Cobb, Mays, Wagner, Mantle, etc.

[west coast orange and black]

yeah, bonds is older than last year.
but because he expects to do certain things, i expect for him to do them, as well.
bonds has continually met his goals.

you mentioned that was expected in '75 for aaron to come close to his '74 numbers. why do you suppose that was?

while true that age 40+ players can lose it in a very short time, and with proper respects to ruth, cobb, mays, wagner, mantle, etc, here is where "there has never been a player in the history of the game like barry bonds." kicks in.
part of that notion is what he is doing at 40+.
i would not bet against the man.