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What is wrong with Tim Lincecum?

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  • What is wrong with Tim Lincecum?

    Any thoughts, ideas, or theories? Discuss!
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  • #2
    K/BB ratio down four straight years (so far in 2012, at least). K/9 has trended down for 4 straight years and BB/9 have increases for 4 straigh years. Velocity? No idea. No trends in his BABIP. No noticable trends in his HR% either.

    His .355 BABIP so far in 2012 is not sustainable, so as long as he can walk fewer batters this year, I bet he will have a good year when it is all said and done.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

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    • #3
      A .355 BABIP is really high isn't it?

      A Yahoo! Sports article about Timmy's woes.

      http://sports.yahoo.com/news/tim-lin...l-missing.html
      Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
        A .355 BABIP is really high isn't it?

        A Yahoo! Sports article about Timmy's woes.

        http://sports.yahoo.com/news/tim-lin...l-missing.html
        Extremely high - which indicates a lot of bad luck so far. No MLB pitcher is a true .355 BABIP pitcher - or they would be out of the league. The worst BABIP pitchers in the history of the league (who stick around for any length of time) are under .320.

        In fact, of all pitchers with over 2,000 batters faced, the single worst BABIP comes from Glendon Rusch at .325.
        Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 05-10-2012, 05:49 PM.
        1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

        1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

        1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


        The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
        The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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        • #5
          Command has been his biggest issue, with too many walks, but he's averaging 10.1 K/9 this year, and has allowed just 17 hits in his last 23 innings, with a .210 BAA (.298 BABIP). He's having some issues mechanically and needs to avoid the "big inning", but he's real close to reeling off 15-20 straight solid-to-excellent starts and making people stop asking "what's wrong with Tim Lincecum."
          San Francisco Giants, World Series Champions in 2010, 2012, and 2014!!!

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Rich the Giants fan View Post
            He's having some issues mechanically and needs to avoid the "big inning", ."
            I will check his LOB% to see how he is doing with sequencing so far...


            WOW 60% LOB%. League average is around 70% and Lincecum's career was aroung 76% coming into this year. So his hits are not being as evenly distributed as one would expect so far. In other words; another reason to expect the "real" Lincecum to show up pretty soon.

            The only worrisome trend is his BB rate...but that isn't going to double your ERA.
            1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

            1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

            1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


            The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
            The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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            • #7
              I guess the question is who is the "real" Tim Lincecum is? Will we ever see the 2008-09 Lincecum again? This is an important question because after 2013 Timmy is a FA. The 2008-09 Lincecum is worth a huge contract. The 2010-11 Lincecum is not.
              Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                I guess the question is who is the "real" Tim Lincecum is? Will we ever see the 2008-09 Lincecum again? This is an important question because after 2013 Timmy is a FA. The 2008-09 Lincecum is worth a huge contract. The 2010-11 Lincecum is not.
                Well, he hasn't been 2008-2009 Lincecum for 3 seasons, so I think a real trend is there. But I see no reason he won't look like 2010 Lincecum by the time the season is over, which is a 3.0-4.0 WAR pitcher who is close to an All Star, #2ish starter. Certainly not a poor pitcher as he appears now. Of course he will not want #2 starter money...
                1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
                  Well, he hasn't been 2008-2009 Lincecum for 3 seasons, so I think a real trend is there. But I see no reason he won't look like 2010 Lincecum by the time the season is over, which is a 3.0-4.0 WAR pitcher who is close to an All Star, #2ish starter. Certainly not a poor pitcher as he appears now. Of course he will not want #2 starter money...
                  And that is the crux of the problem. If Timmy does settle into a 3.0-4.0, #2ish starter and he demands C.C Sabathia money the Giants will be a huge bind.
                  Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                    And that is the crux of the problem. If Timmy does settle into a 3.0-4.0, #2ish starter and he demands C.C Sabathia money the Giants will be a huge bind.
                    If he has another decent-yet-not-great season, I'd let him walk and spend the money on offense, if I were the Giants. They have a lot of pitching depth. If he dominates the last 4.5 months, pay the man.
                    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Rich the Giants fan View Post
                      Command has been his biggest issue, with too many walks, but he's averaging 10.1 K/9 this year, and has allowed just 17 hits in his last 23 innings, with a .210 BAA (.298 BABIP). He's having some issues mechanically and needs to avoid the "big inning", but he's real close to reeling off 15-20 straight solid-to-excellent starts and making people stop asking "what's wrong with Tim Lincecum."
                      Isn't he starting to get better after a bad start?

                      I think one of the problems is that hitters lay off his offspeed stuff in the dirt. combined with his velocity loss this makes him a little less dangerous. he used to throw 97 now he throws 92.

                      but he is still a damn good pitcher I'm just not sure if he remains a CY candidate. But I think he will continue to win a lot of games.
                      I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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                      • #12
                        The next question is why can't Timmy throw 97 mph anymore? Surely his arm hasn't deteriorated that much at age 28?
                        Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Rob Neyer summarizes what we have discussing in this article. There's some good stuff in the comments section as well.

                          http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/5/10/30...es-slump-death
                          Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                            The next question is why can't Timmy throw 97 mph anymore? Surely his arm hasn't deteriorated that much at age 28?
                            first we have to know if he really can't or if he is pacing himself.

                            if he can't this might be because he is a small guy who relies on enormous flexibilty to create the necessary range of motion. if he loses a little there this shortens his accleration path and costs velocity. for that reason those small explosive and flexible pitchers often lose the speed earlier than the 6"6 guy who has a longer natural acceleration path and thus often can chuck mid 90s still in their mid 30s.

                            another possible explanation could be that there are small overuse injuries already but I can't answer that.
                            I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                              The next question is why can't Timmy throw 97 mph anymore? Surely his arm hasn't deteriorated that much at age 28?
                              I always wondered if the reason was that Timmy was pulling a Koufax and taking a bit off the fastball to get better control. As the the years have gone by and his fastball continues to slow, I'm guessing that wasn't it.
                              “Well, I like to say I’m completely focused, right? I mean, the game’s on the line. It’s not like I’m thinking about what does barbecue Pop Chips and Cholula taste like. Because I already know that answer — it tastes friggin’ awesome!"--Brian Wilson

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