2012 San Francisco Giants Postseason thread

[Honus Wagner Rules]

The playoffs are less than a week away! Would you rather the Giants play the Reds or Nationals in the NLDS?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Timmy will pitch in the postseason, not that that is a great shocker. So how should the rotation be set for the playoffs?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Nothing would make me happier for the Giants to make this "expert" look silly! GO GIANTS!!!


Monday, October 1, 2012
Giants not built for October
By Paul Swydan
FanGraphs

The San Francisco Giants will finish the regular season ranked in the top 10 of the ESPN Power Rankings for the eighth straight week, and in 16 of the final 17. The Giants finished with three straight fifth-place rankings, the highest they have been ranked this season. And still, the Giants have no chance of winning the World Series.

The Giants have played well this season, and they have been red hot in September, but they are a thin team that has feasted on inferior competition. Buster Posey is one of the best players in baseball, and Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are top-30 pitchers. But outside of that, the quality dips quickly.
Pablo Sandoval is someone the team needs to be a star, but according to both wOBA and wRC+ he has not been a top-10 third baseman this season. Angel Pagan has been good but streaky -- in two months, he has compiled an OPS of .884 or higher, but in the other four months he has compiled an OPS of .760 or lower. Hunter Pence has turned back into the average outfielder that he was prior to last year. In September, Marco Scutaro and Brandon Belt have been the team's second- and third-best hitters, and both are rocking BABIP's well above their previously established norms.

Despite this lack of depth, which has forced the team to play retreads Gregor Blanco and Xavier Nady down the stretch, the team has chosen to sit atop Mount Pious and banish Melky Cabrera from even having a shot to contribute in the postseason. This shortsighted decision will leave them either playing the Blanco/Nady combo in left, or pushing Belt and Posey to suboptimal defensive positions -- Belt in left and Posey at first -- so that Hector Sanchez and his 2.3 walk rate (lowest in the NL among those with at least 200 plate appearances) can catch. Neither option is palatable, and even if Cabrera wasn't 100 percent when he came back, he would have been a better contributor than Blanco, Nady or Sanchez. This lack of depth offensively would also be felt in a major way if San Francisco were to ultimately reach the World Series, as they do not have an obvious candidate for designated hitter.

Reaching the World Series seems a bit far-fetched at this point, however. Pitching becomes paramount in the postseason, and at this point the Giants rotation essentially amounts to "Bumgarner, Cain and pray for rain." Both starters have pitched consistently well throughout the season, but after that, things get shaky. On Sunday, Tim Lincecum became just the 11th pitcher in Petco Park history to allow three or more home runs in a single outing, and after the game he had to confirm that he would actually be part of the postseason starting rotation. That this was even a question shows how far the two-time Cy Young Award winner has fallen. His 4.19 FIP is more than a half-run worse than his rookie season and is by far the worst mark of his career. The picture isn't much rosier for Ryan Vogelsong. While the right-hander has better numbers for the season, he has been cuffed around lately. After compiling a 2.36 first-half ERA, he has struggled to a 5.11 ERA since the All-Star break.

Relief efforts
In most seasons, this might not be as big of an issue, as the Giants generally have a rock-solid bullpen. That has not been the case this season. Looking at shutdowns and meltdowns, which is a more evolved measuring stick than saves and blown saves, the Giants have one of the worst bullpens in the game, a sharp contrast to the past two seasons. Their SD/MD ratio is 22nd overall and ranks 12th among the 14 teams who have either clinched postseason berths or are still in the running (see table). Looking at context neutral wins, or WPA/LI, which is also a great way to look at reliever performance, we can see the Giants have slid here as well. In 2010 and 2011, they produced top-10 units, but this season they have slipped all the way to 28th in baseball -- only the Cubs and Astros have been worse.

It's not hard to see why. The team's best reliever, Sergio Romo, has to be treated with kid gloves. The fragile righty has averaged well under an inning per appearance in his career, and has never thrown more than 62 innings in the regular season. This season, he has logged appearances on three straight days only twice -- once in mid-May, and then again right after the All-Star break, when he had a few extra days of rest. Romo is terrific when he pitches, but on days that he is unavailable, the Giants bullpen is woefully thin. Jeremy Affeldt has 16 shutdowns against 15 meltdowns this season, and he may be the next-best option. Rookie George Kontos is the only other pitcher in the zip code, and he has more meltdowns than shutdowns for the season himself.

Despite the lack of depth, the Giants have been at their best this month -- their .704 September winning percentage (19-8) is their best of the season. But that is a bit misleading, as they have played cream puffs or familiar division rivals the entire month. The only time this month that their opponent was playing for something was during a three-game set with the Dodgers. Good teams have to throttle the bad competition, and the Giants have done that, going 43-40 (while being outscored) against teams that are .500 or better, and 50-26 against everyone else.

Technically, every team that reaches October has a chance to win the World Series, simply because they have a ticket to the dance. But while the Giants have punched their dance card, it may be quickly discarded. Posey, Matt and Bumgarner are three of baseball's best players, but outside of them, the Giants have very few sure things. The Giants have scored plenty of runs in the second half, but many of their hitters are playing over their heads, and the overall depth is still thin. The same is true of the team's pitching, and on nights when Lincecum and Vogelsong pitch, San Francisco will likely need to ladle on the runs in order to win. Every team has a shot to win, but even though they will avoid the play-in game, the Giants will face longer odds than their National League counterparts this October.

Paul Swydan covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has been writing about baseball for various publications since 2005, and can most frequently be found writing for FanGraphs. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.

[KHenry14]

This guy is an example of why I detest advanced metrics. IT'S FREAKING STATS, THATS ALL. It doesn't measure heart, character, intelligence, or anything remotely dedicated to the human condition. Baseball history is littered with teams who perform differently to their statistical tendancies. 1990 Reds anyone? 1988 Dodgers? 1914 Braves?

Cain a top 30 pitcher?? Hah I say. :grouchy

[Honus Wagner Rules]

This guy is an example of why I detest advanced metrics. IT'S FREAKING STATS, THATS ALL. It doesn't measure heart, character, intelligence, or anything remotely dedicated to the human condition. Baseball history is littered with teams who perform differently to their statistical tendancies. 1990 Reds anyone? 1988 Dodgers? 1914 Braves?

Cain a top 30 pitcher?? Hah I say. :grouchy

Also, he writes as if the Nationals and Reds doesn't have their flaws as well.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

It's official Matt Cain is starting game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday.

[west coast orange and black]

if lincecum is gonna start a game, he hasta pitch at home.

[west coast orange and black]

the division crown AND knocking the hated dodgers outta contention.
THAT, my friends, is the cherry on top!

[west coast orange and black]

wags: The playoffs are less than a week away! Would you rather the Giants play the Reds or Nationals in the NLDS?

johnnie b's cincy boys look kinda scary to me right now.
nationals.

[Blue387]

wags: The playoffs are less than a week away! Would you rather the Giants play the Reds or Nationals in the NLDS?

johnnie b's cincy boys look kinda scary to me right now.
nationals.

Kris Medlen of the Braves is dangerous.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

So game 1 of the Giants/Reds NLDS is in San Francisco Saturday night. Matt Cain vs. Johnny Cueto. I guess th changed the 2-2-1 format to a 2-3 format? I wanted the Giants to start on the road. Oh well.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Vogelsong pitched well in today's regular season finale. I think that settles the rotation in my mind. The first three should be Cain, Bumgarner, and Vogelsong.

[west coast orange and black]

zito has had a better-than-expected season and i see no reason for him not to continue in the playoffs. but after a stong consideration for zito, i agree with you, wags.

cain-bumgarner-vogelsong

and, frankly, i do not wanna see lincecum on the mound in the first inning in the division series.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

On Keith Law's ESPN Chat yesterday someone asked this question.

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Eddie (Fresno)
How about this bold move....use Lincecum as a closer in the playoffs, allowing him to completely air it out and basically go FB/Splitter exclusively while only seeing hitters once an outing.

Klaw (1:06 PM)
I don't even think it's that bold - I think it makes more sense to use him in relief than pretend he didn't just have a consistently awful year. The only concern I'd have is that they never tried him in relief even in the final week of the regular season, so they don't know if his stuff will play up (as we expect) or how he'll feel the next day.
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An interesting idea, no? Lincecum did appear in relief in the 2010 NLCS, game 6 I think. He didn't so well I remember.

[west coast orange and black]

buddies and i have been discussing lincecum all season. who hasn't?
but specifically about his playoff role.

it was suggested that he come outta the bullpen, and that sounds great, but yeah, there are too many unknowns. i loves my timmy. we all do. but over the course of 162 he has shown who he is.

i asked a buddy: would you risk .617 of 1% for lincecum to pitch? "well, of course." yeah, on opening day it was not a high stake in any sense. but now it is the division series.

the series can go 3 or 4 or 5 games - each game hurled is 20 or 25 or 33.3% or even 100%, depending.
i am not about to risk that kinda percentage of my paycheck on lincecum this time around.