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SF GIANTS keys to 2013

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  • #16
    Originally posted by KHenry14 View Post
    Wonder when Villalona will report?
    To his parole officer?!
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
      Nothing like having the thread hijacked into a numbers projected stat thread

      Sheesh
      One in which is supporting the idea of the Giants winning the division and beating out the Dodgers. Considering the amount of people picking the Dodgers to win, you might be picking a battle with the wrong person this time.

      For the record, I like the Giants over the Dodgers too, but in reality, there are probably 6-7 teams in both leagues that have an about-equal chance to win it all.
      1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

      1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

      1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


      The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
      The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
        To his parole officer?!
        Bochy is his PO, isn't he??
        “Well, I like to say I’m completely focused, right? I mean, the game’s on the line. It’s not like I’m thinking about what does barbecue Pop Chips and Cholula taste like. Because I already know that answer — it tastes friggin’ awesome!"--Brian Wilson

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
          One in which is supporting the idea of the Giants winning the division and beating out the Dodgers. Considering the amount of people picking the Dodgers to win, you might be picking a battle with the wrong person this time.

          For the record, I like the Giants over the Dodgers too, but in reality, there are probably 6-7 teams in both leagues that have an about-equal chance to win it all.
          That's pretty much baseball right now. I think that's why many people try to deride the Giants recent two World Series titles as "lucky" or "random" which is ridiculous of course.
          Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
            That's pretty much baseball right now. I think that's why many people try to deride the Giants recent two World Series titles as "lucky" or "random" which is ridiculous of course.
            Well, the skill part comes from being one of the top 12 or so teams in baseball. That is mostly skill there. To make consistant trips into that top 10-12 shows organizational strength, not luck. Once playoffs starts, any team can win. The fact that any team can win (from the best to the 12th best) is why some people say it is "luck." Compared to say the NBA, where one of the top 2-3 teams ALWAYS wins.

            The Giants are certainly good enough to be in that group of 12 again that can win it all. That is really all you need at this point. The issue is, there are probably 15-16 teams that are good enough to make it into the top 12, and no "sure thing" is really a sure thing with this much parody.

            Look at the St. Louis Cardinals. Since, 1982, they have made the playoffs 13 times. Their average win total in the 3x they have won it all was 88 wins. In the 10x they didn't win? A 95 win average - including three teams with 100+ wins and five with 97+ wins. Were they lucky the three years they won? Unlucky many of those 10 years they didn't?

            Probably a combination of yes and no. But one thing we know, and the only thing I care about is: you do not make the playoffs 13x in 30 years by luck and you do not make 10 LCS in 30 years by luck. That is a sign of organizational strength, and that is what the Giants are showing lately.
            Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 02-13-2013, 10:46 AM.
            1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

            1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

            1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


            The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
            The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
              One in which is supporting the idea of the Giants winning the division and beating out the Dodgers. Considering the amount of people picking the Dodgers to win, you might be picking a battle with the wrong person this time.

              For the record, I like the Giants over the Dodgers too, but in reality, there are probably 6-7 teams in both leagues that have an about-equal chance to win it all.


              I don't think you understand my concern. I am not looking for Giants rooters or whatever, I just felt the thread was being hijacked into a stat projection saber thread which is 100% the opposite of what I intended the thread to be. I f I wanted a saber stat guesswork thread I would have started it in the stats and saber category.
              Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 02-13-2013, 03:44 PM.
              1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
              2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
              3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post

                3) Brandon Belt - we need a breakout season from him in the next year or 2. As long as they stop the infield-outfield, starter-bench player, majors-minors yo-yo. I think a .280-.300 BA with 18 - 24 HR would be not too much to ask for.
                I think Belt can do that, maybe a bit better. I think he still has lots of upside that is yet to be harnessed.

                Brandon Belt.jpg
                Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
                  I don't think you understand my concerm. I am not looking for Giants rooters or whatever, I just felt the thread was being hijacked into a stat projection saber thread which is 100% the opposite of what I intended the thread to be. I f I wanted a saber stat guesswork thread I would have started it in the stats and saber category.
                  Fair enough.
                  1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                  1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                  1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                  The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                  The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
                    I think in 2013 spring training they made all the right decisions
                    Did I miss something? That something being spring training 2013

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      I wonder if Pagan will be worth his contract. He put up under 5 WAR in 2012 and had a 5 WAR season with the Mets in 2010 but then came back to earth in 2011.

                      I like Angel Pagan.
                      The Mets have the best, smartest fans in baseball.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                        I think Belt can do that, maybe a bit better. I think he still has lots of upside that is yet to be harnessed.
                        Let's see if we should expect Belt to be able to do that


                        Assume 700 PA's

                        So far in the majors Belt has walked about 8% of his at bats.
                        In the minors he walked about 17% of the time which translates to a major league line of about 7%.
                        Let's be optimistic and say that in Belt's prime he can draw a walk 10% of the time. That's 70 walks

                        So far in the majors Belt has stuck out about 24% of the time.
                        In the minors he struck out about 18% of the time which translates to a major league line of about 21%.
                        Let's be optimistic and say that in Belt's prime he can strike out about 20% of the time. That's 126 strikeouts.

                        That gives belt about 504 balls in play (less home runs, which we'll deal with later).

                        So far in the majors Belt has the following batted ball profile:
                        22% line drives, 39% ground balls, 37% fly balls-of which 6% were infield flies, and 9% HR/FB.
                        In the minors his lines were
                        2011: 27%/34%/39%/7%/15%
                        Let's be optimistic and say that in Belt's prime he can hit 25% line drives, 37% ground balls, 38% fly balls of which 5% are infield flies with a 15% HR/FB rate.

                        So, on Belt's 504 BIP we'll expect (.25*504) 126 line drives, (.37*504) 186 ground balls and (.38*504) 192 fly balls of which (.05*504) 25 are infield fly balls.
                        Of Belt's 192 fly balls 15% of them will go for home runs, that's (.15*192) 29 HR's.

                        That leaves Belt with (504-29) 475 balls in play.
                        Using league average BABIPs for each batted ball type we'd expect the following amount of hits
                        Line drives: .740 BABIP * 126 line drives = 93 hits
                        Ground balls: .240 BABIP * 186 ground balls = 45 hits
                        Fly balls: .140 BABIP * 164 fly balls (192 fly balls - 28 home runs) = 23 hits

                        That's a total of (93+45+23+28) 189 hits.

                        700 PA's - 70 walks leaves Belt with 630 at bats.
                        189/730 = .300 batting average.

                        So, using some projections that I'd consider optimistic, I get Belt-in his prime-hitting .300 with 28 home runs.

                        Unlikely that he'll get to Roy's .280 with 24 home runs this season.

                        Feel free to adjust the numbers as you see fit.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Blue387 View Post
                          I wonder if Pagan will be worth his contract. He put up under 5 WAR in 2012 and had a 5 WAR season with the Mets in 2010 but then came back to earth in 2011.

                          I like Angel Pagan.
                          ZiPS projects Pagan for .270/.320/.403 in 610 PA's. That's about league average offense. Combined with slightly above average defense Pagan comes in at 3.5 WAR.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by filihok View Post
                            ZiPS projects Pagan for .270/.320/.403 in 610 PA's. That's about league average offense. Combined with slightly above average defense Pagan comes in at 3.5 WAR.
                            Angel Pagan is streaky.
                            The Mets have the best, smartest fans in baseball.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              rotation announced

                              http://blog.sfgate.com/giants/2013/0...tive-rotation/
                              1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
                              2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
                              3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                The Giants have traded Connar Gillespie to the White Sox for a hard throwing pitcher

                                He only plays 3B and Sandoval and Arias have that position covered
                                1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
                                2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
                                3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

                                Comment

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